Could the last of Europe's dictatorships be on its way out?
Has everyone forgotten about Belarus? Sometimes it seems that way.
I am quite used to dictatorships and police states being ignored when they are in Asia, Africa or in parts of Russia. But Belarus is in Europe, nestled between Poland and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. This is a country where even telling a joke about the president can land you in jail. Organizing a public protest is a crime. So is "discrediting" the state.
Although the country became independent along with the other states when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Belarus has not changed much. Unlike even Russia, it still has the KGB. It has been run by strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko since 1994, who keeps on getting "elected" in sham democratic elections held every 5 years.
The next election is scheduled for March 19 and yet I've seen almost nothing written about this country in the western, traditional press (in English). Lukashenko was supposed to be ineligible to run for a third term in office but in 2004 he organized a sham referendum to allow him to run for a third time. The only European country that pays any attention to Belarus is Poland, and to a lesser extent, Ukraine.
Yesterday the WaPo ran an article on Belarus:
The Belarusian security service on Wednesday accused the isolated ex-Soviet nation's opposition party of planning to seize power during this month's presidential election.
Security chief Stepan Sukharenko read a statement on state television alleging that the opposition had plotted to detonate explosives on election day in a crowd of supporters protesting against alleged fraud.
"The opposition planned to seize power," he said.
The "security service" is the KGB, although why the WaPo doesn't tell you that until the last paragraph is impossible to guess. And allegations that the opposition, under Alexander Milinkevich, is going to organize a coup is ridiculous.
Everyone knows Milinkevich isn't going to win. He's mostly running just to draw attention to the lack of democracy in the country. It also gives him a rare chance to (somewhat) freely discuss what's actually going on in the country, something most citizens are too intimidated to do.
Not that the west isn't trying to influence these elections, albeit somewhat covertly. The U.S. is funneling at least 14 million to NGO's to promote democracy. The European Union is running a sort of "Radio Marti" or "Voice of America" type operation, broadcasting news into Belarus to counteract state-run propaganda. Britain is also sending money to NGO's, including a few underground (and banned) organizations like Khopits or Zubr.
The Bush administration even sent over Terry Nelson, who was a major player in the Bush 2004 election bid, to teach "get out the vote" strategies.
Of course the main reason that Lukeshenko's iron grip on the country is so strong is because of Russian backing. From February 27, 2006:
The Russian foreign minister cautioned Monday against putting pressure on Belarus in advance of the country's March 19 presidential elections.
"We are against putting pressure on anyone, and bringing about regime changes," Sergei Lavrov told a joint session of senior Russian and Belarusian diplomats in Moscow.
Russia and Belarus are extremely close. Although there is a Belarussian language, most of Belarus' 10 million residents speak Russian as their primary language. The two countries are even going to merge their currencies and there is talk of a complete political union in the future.
Meanwhile here are some of the stories you probably haven't heard to give you a taste of what's going on there:
KGB raids an NGO because they were planning on "falsifying election results" signed by American polling firm Gallup (Feb 28). Diplomatic outrage after KGB stops a car belonging to the Czech Embassy in Minsk because driver was Belarussian national with pamphlets in the car critical of the government (Feb 27). KGB arrests several members of the Polish Union, an unsanctioned group representing the some 400,000 ethnic Poles in the country, for having Polish-language materials critical of the government (Feb 25). KGB breaks up an NGO called Partnership Civic Initiative, an NGO funded by the American government for "posing a threat" (Feb 24). KGB conduct raids on offices and homes of the opposition, seizing files and pamphlets and arresting at least one person (Feb 23). KGB conducts raid on opposition apartmet, seizes documents and leaflets including "old newspapers" on the charge of "libel against the president" (Feb 21).
These kinds of activities have been going on all year in the ramp-up to the March 19 "elections".
Update: Earlier this evening (it's almost midnight now in Belarus) some ten thousand people rallied in Minsk, the capital of Belarus to protest the government.
10,000 Belarusian citizens have gathered today in Svaboda (Freedom) Square in Minsk to meet the candidate of united democratic forces, Alyaksandr Milinkevich.
They're all there because the man with no chance, Aleksandr Milinkevich (see above) called them out. Wow I can't believe the numbers are so high but this is probably due to outrage at the KGB's mauling of Aleksandr Kazulin earlier today.
Click on the linked story for some amazing photographs! This is an amazing development. I hate to make predictions but this smells very similar to the Rose Revolution in Georgia in October 2003, the main impetus for my becoming a blogger.
Dare I say that something major is blowing in the wind?
For English-language news from the opposition in Belarus, see here.
Cross-posted from Flogging the Simian, now new and improved. Check it out!
Peace