It's time to update my monthly House rankings. At this point, I have whittled the field to 78 races that seem at least somewhat in play--61 held by the GOP and 17 held by the Dems. I will diary the 17 Dem seats later. In the coming weeks, I will do more in depth profiles of each race. I will try to wait until after the Dem nominee is clear--I have no interest in getting into internecine pie fights over contested primaries.
Several key events have occurred to shift the playing field. The good: the retirement by Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY 24) sets up a top tier race; the entrance of Arizona state Sen. Harry Mitchell into the 5th District race against Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) makes that a competitive contest; and Sen. Reid aide Tessa Hafen's entrance into the Nevada 03 race puts that one on the map. The bad: the top Dem challengers in both AZ-01 and NC-08 just dropped out, moving both races off the competitve lists.
In addition, primaries have been held in Illinois and Texas. These have produced generally good news for the Dems (DeLay winning in TX-22, Duckworth winning in IL-06, and Seals winning in IL-10)--although the GOP got a wealthy self-funder to take on Rep. Melissa Bean in IL-08 who doesn't have the baggage of the Salvi name.
As always, These rankings take into account district makeup, challenger and incumbent strength, scandal, and fundraising (the final 2005 reports are finally out). The rankings come from a mathematical formula but is subject to tinkering based on my own gut feelings.
The formula is derived by averaging the Dem share of the two-party vote from the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections in each district (adding one point for 2004 because it was a 51-49 race instead of a 50-50 like 2000), averaging that number with the Cook Political Report's District Partisan Index figure. Then, for 2006 incumbent-challenger races, I add the average of the Dem share of the 2004 and 2002 Congressional races. For open seat races, I instead double the district makeup number I described earlier. Then, I add anything from -5 to 5 based on my view of the fundraising picture on each side. Then, I add or subtract points (up to 15) for scandals. Next, I add two points for races involving freshman incumbents and seven for open seats (subtracting those numbers in the case of Dem-held seats). Finally, I add (or subtract in the case of Dem-held seats) 0-5 points based on challenger profile (i.e. statewide elected officers and good celebrities get 5 points, ex-Congressmen and state legislative leaders get 4, state legislators get 3, mayors and the like get 2, and repeat nominees get 1).
Previous Rank in parentheses
GOP Seats
First Tier
1. Iowa 01 (OPEN) (1) (filing deadline passed, primary June 6): Fmr IA Trial Lawyers Assn. Pres. Bruce Braley (D), Bus. Rick Dickinson (D), Fmr. State Sen. & 2004 Nominee Bill Gluba (D), or fmr. teacher Denny Heath (D) vs. State Rep. Bill Dix (R), Fmr. IA GOP Chair Brian Kennedy (R), or Bus. Mike Whalen (R).
This lean Dem district is the most Democratic GOP-held open seat in the country. Braley and Dix appear to be the front-runners. Nothing has happened to make me want to move this race out of the #1 slot.
2. Colorado 07 (OPEN) (2) (filing May 25, primary August 8): Fmr. State Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D), Fmr. State Rep. Peggy Lamm (D), or Atty. Herb Rubinstein (D) vs. CO Higher Educ. Comm. Rick O'Donnell (R).
Like IA-01, this district is a highly competitive open seat (although not quite as Dem-leaning). The GOP avoided an ugly primary, allowing O'Donnell to cast himself as a centrist earlier. Still, the Dems are well positioned with strong candidates. Expect a very close race in an always competitive district.
3. Arizona 08 (OPEN) (3) (filing June 14, primary September 12): State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D), TV News Anchor Patty Weiss (D), Vet Jeff Latas (D), Retired Grocery Chain Exec. Dwight Leister (D), Tucson School Bd. Memb. Alex Rodriguez (D), Retired Fed. Empl. Francine Shacter (D), or Fmr. Congressional Aide Tim Sultan (D) vs. Fmr. State Rep. Randy Graf (R), State Rep. Steve Huffman (R), Fmr. AZ GOP Chair Mike Hellon (R), Vet. Frank Antenori (R), or Auto shop mgr. Mike Jenkins (R).
Another open seat in a swing district. This district actually tilts slightly to the GOP. The Dems, however, have the stronger candidates: Weiss is a well-known and popular figure from her days as news anchor; Giffords has represented a large part of the district in the state Senate. The GOP field is still sorting itself out. At this point it appears that the GOP front-runners are Graf, Huffman, and Hellon.
4. Connecticut 02 (Simmons) (4): Fmr. State Rep. & 2002 Nom. Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rep. Rob Simmons (R).
Simmons has the distinction of representing the most Democratic district of any GOPer. He's a good politician who knows how to throw in the occasional vote against the GOP leadership. Unfortunately for Simmons and fortunately for the Dems, Courtney is a very strong opponent and 2006 may well be a year where CT-02 is unwinnable with an (R) after your name.
5. New Mexico 01 (Wilson) (6) (filing passed for major parties; filing for 3d parties July 11): NM Atty General Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Rep. Heather Wilson (R).
Madrid may well be the single best Dem recruit thus far this cycle. Wilson has won this Dem leaning district in the past with the help of Green Party spoilers. As of now, there is no Green candidate.
6. Indiana 09 (Sodrel) (7) (filing passed, primary May 2): Fmr. Rep. Baron Hill (D), Teacher Gretchen Clearwater (D), John "Cosmo" Hockersmith (D), or Lendall "Lee" Terry (D) vs. Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) or Vet Sam Schultz (R).
Despite the presence of the minor candidates here, this is Hill-Sodrel III. Hill won in 2002; Sodrel eked out the narrowest victory in the nation in 2004. Bush's 40% approval ratings in Indiana can't bode well for Sodrel.
7. Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) (8) (filing passed, primary May 16): Atty & 2004 Nom. Lois Murphy (D) or Atty Mike Leibowitz (D) vs. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R).
Gerlach has had a rough past few months, facing one tough vote after another--not good for a guy who has won a pair of 51-49 contests in generally strong GOP years. Especially in an area strongly trending Dem in a year in which the guy largely credited with causing (or at least accelerating) that trend--Ed Rendell--will be at the top of the ticket. Murphy will be the Dem nominee and has at least an even chance of winning the seat. One caveat: there is a Green candidate here.
8. Ohio 18 (Ney) (16) (filing passed, primary May 2): Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer (D), Atty Zack Space (D), State Bd. Of Educ. Memb. Jennifer Stewart (D), Consult. Jeff Woollard (D), or Ralph Applegate (D) vs. Rep. Bob Ney (R) or Analyst James Harris (R).
Ney may well be indicted or worse by the time November rolls around. None of the Dems are a dream recruit, but they should be sufficient to defeat such an embattled incumbent. The Dem favorites are Sulzer and Space, although Stewart could make an impact.
9. Kentucky 04 (Davis) (15) (filing passed): Fmr. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) vs. Rep. Geoff Davis (R).
This was Lucas' seat until he retired in 2004. Davis (whom Lucas defeated in 2002) picked it up. Lucas has already put out a poll with him up 10. A note of caution: remember the Fletcher-Baesler race in KY-06 in 2000 (Baesler left the seat to run for Senate in 1998. He returned to get stomped by now-Gov. Ernie Fletcher).
10. Florida 22 (Shaw) (12) (filing May 12, primary September 5): State Sen. Min. Ldr. Ron Klein (D) or Vet John Glassie (D) vs. Rep. Clay Shaw (R)
Klein is the toughest, best funded opponent Shaw has ever faced. Shaw has health problems and has been less active campaigning thus far. And how would you like to be an incumbent Republican running in Palm Beach following the Medicare scam bill and the abortive attempt to privatize social security?
11. Connecticut 04 (Shays) (5): Westport Selectwoman & 2004 Nom. Diane Farrell (D) vs. Rep. Chris Shays (R).
Farrell gave Shays his first scare in years, taking 48% in 2004. Shays is the absolute master at looking moderate and independent. His recent public endorsement of Joe Lieberman is an example. The district is trending Dem, however. That plus the national mood may be enough to put Farrell over the top this time despite Shays' best efforts.
12. California 50 (OPEN; Special Election 4 & 11, Runoff 6 & 6) (10) (filing passed): Prof. & 2004 Nom. Francine Busby (D) or Law student Chris Young (D) vs. Fmr. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R), State Sen. Bill Morrow (R), Fmr. State Rep. & Radio Host Howard Kaloogian (R), Bus. Alan Uke (R) (424 & 190), Bus. Eric Roach (R), Fmr. Del Mar Mayor Richard Earnest (R), Sales Director Bill Boyer (R), Bus. & Vet. Bill Hauf (R), Author Delecia Holt (R), Vet. Jeff Newsome (R), Defense Contractor & Ret. Navy Off. Scott Orren (R), Ex-Superior Court Judge Victor Ramirez (R), or Ex-Pro Football Player Scott Turner (R).
The April 11 open special will almost certainly make Busby the plurality winner, probably with 40-45%. She will then face off with the top GOPer, widely believed to be Bilbray, Morrow, Kaloogian, Roach, or Uke, roughly in that order. Busby has the resources and organization to pull off a win in the runoff, especially with the runoff occurring concurrently with the regular primary which features the hotly contested gubernatorial primary on the Dem side, but no big races on the GOP side.
13. Indiana 08 (Hostettler) (14) (filing passed): Vanderburgh Cty. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) or Bernard Peter (D) vs. Rep. John Hostettler (R).
Ellsworth will be the nominee and is a very strong candidate. I don't expect the flap over photos of his college-age daughter drinking appearing on the internet will hurt him. If anything, pushing it will backfire on Hostettler. As usual, Hostettler has no money. The "Bloody Eighth" tends to switch parties in swing years. Ellsworth is well positioned to make that happen this year.
14. New York 24 (OPEN) (47) (filing July 13, primary September 12): Oneida Cty. DA Michael Arcuri (D), Atty. Leon Koziol (D), Dr. Les Roberts (D), Fmr. Cortland Mayor Bruce Tytler (D), or Univ. employee Brian Goodell vs. State Sen. Ray Meier (R) or Fmr. Seneca Falls Mayor Brad Jones (R).
This race just got turned upside down by the Boehlert retirement announcement. The GOP establishment quickly coalesced behind Meier as the anointed successor. Meanwhile, Jones is still in the race challenging Meier from the right and likely to pick up the Conservative and Right to Life ballot lines for the general. On the Dem side, I have heard nothing but good things about Arcuri, the front-runner. This is a very moderate lean-GOP district which has been trending Dem in other races.
15. North Carolina 11 (Taylor) (9) (filing passed, primary May 2): Fmr. NFL QB Heath Shuler (D) or Drug legalization advocate Michael Morgan (D) vs. Rep. Charles Taylor (R) or John Armor (R).
Taylor has been laying back while Shuler has been aggressive early on. A classic underperformer whose relationship with his constituents has been rocky for some time, this may be the year that Taylor finally fails to get 50% plus one. Never underestimate the power of celebrity candidates in this age of media idolization of actors and sports stars (see Schwarzenegger, Arnold or Bunning, Jim).
16. Texas 22 (DeLay) (13): Fmr. Rep. Nick Lampson (D) vs. Rep. Tom DeLay (R) vs. Fmr. GOP Rep. Steve Stockman (I).
The Texas primaries revealed a great deal of weakness on DeLay's part. He took 63% of the vote against two unknowns. Figure the district is naturally 64-36 GOP. DeLay thus just won support of 63% of 64%, or about 40% of the voters in the district. Meanwhile any Dem starts with 36%. Add in the fact that Nick Lampson is an excellent politician with gobs of cash; he is an infinitely stronger candidate than Richard Morrison was in 2004 and Morrison took 45%. Plus DeLay has now been indicted, and will likely be in even worse legal trouble by fall. Plus, Stockman will pull votes from DeLay. It's hard to envision a better scenario for winning a seat that went 64-36 for Bush.
17. Wisconsin 08 (OPEN) (11) (filing July 11, primary September 12): Dr. Steve Kagan (D), Fmr. Brown Cty. Exec. Nancy Nusbaum (D), or Consult. Jamie Wall (D) vs. State House Spkr. John Gard (R), State Rep. Terri McCormick (R), or Winery Owner Tim Lawrie (R)
Both Kagan and Nusbaum have shown strength in this lean-GOP seat. The Dems picked it up the last time it was open (1996).
18. Minnesota 06 (OPEN) (17): Child Safety Advocate & 2004 Nom. Patty Wetterling (D) or Fmr. MN Trans. Comm. Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) vs. State Sen. Michelle Bachman (R), State Rep. Jim Knoblauch (R), State Rep. Phil Krinkie (R), Bus. Jay Esmay (R).
Wetterling ran a strong race here in 2004 against incumbent Mark Kennedy, but afterwards was quoted as calling the district unwinnable. Nonetheless, she's back and will face moderate Tinklenberg in what should be a close primary. In shades of Hackett-Brown, Tinklenberg claims that Wetterling assured him she wouldn't run before he got in. Hopefully, this primary doesn't get ugly because either would be a strong candidate. The GOP field is jumbled.
19. Illinois 06 (OPEN) (20): Iraq vet Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. State Sen. Peter Roskam (R).
Let the healing begin. Duckworth survived her primary against '04 nominee Christine Cegelis 43%-40% and goes into the general as only a slight underdog against Roskam. Duckworth demonstrated her fundraising ability and has a compelling profile. This is a lean-GOP district that is trending Dem.
20. Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick) (18) (filing passed, primary May 16): Iraq vet Patrick Murphy (D) or Fmr. Bucks Cty. Comm. Andy Warren (D) vs. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
This will be a close, interesting primary on the Dem side. Murphy has more national support and more money; Warren has more local connections. I expect Murphy to pull it out, however. The district is a lean-Dem district and getting even more so, especially with Rendell and Casey coattails. Nonetheless, Fitzpatrick is a solid, well-funded freshman who hasn't made too many mistakes.
21. Washington 08 (Reichert) (19) (filing July 28, primary September 19): Fmr. Microsoft Exec. Darcy Burner (D) (205 & 112) vs. Rep. Dave Reichert (R) (1149 & 580).
Reichert, a former district attorney, swept into office in '04 on the acclaim for finally catching the Green River Killer. I would imagine that that notoriety has not worn off. Burner is not a top tier recruit, but her Microsoft connections should help. This is a lean-Dem district.
22. Connecticut 05 (Johnson) (22): State Sen. Chris Murphy (D) or Waterbury Councilman Paul Vance (D) vs. Rep. Nancy Johnson (R).
This is the most GOP seat in Connecticut, but it is still Connecticut--so the seat is lean Dem. Johnson has been popular for a long time, but she has not had to face another well-funded and popular elected official like Murphy before.
23. Florida 13 (OPEN) (25) (filing May 12, primary September 5): Bank Pres. Christine Jennings (D), Atty. & 2002 & '04 Nom. Jan Schneider (D), or Mike LaFevers (D) vs. Car Dealership Owner Vern Buchanan (R), Banker Tramm Hudson (R), or State Rep. Nancy Detert (R) (73 & 49).
The expectation is that this will be Jennings vs. Buchanan and tilts slightly to the GOP, but in a Dem year a Jennings victory is certainly possible--especially against a multimillionaire trying to buy an election.
24. Kentucky 03 (Northup) (21) (filing passed, primary May 16): Iraq vet Andrew Horne (D), Publisher John Yarmuth (D), Burrell Farnsley (D), or Software devel. James Moore (D) vs. Rep. Anne Northup (R).
Northup represents a very Democratic seat (based in Louisville), really the only Dem seat in Kentucky. She has beat back many a tough challenge, but Horne may have the profile to beat her in what should be a strong Dem year.
25. Virginia 02 (Drake) (23) (filing April 14, primary June 13): Virginia Beach Revenue Comm. Phil Kellam (D) vs. Rep. Thelma Drake (R) or Virginia Beach Sheriff Paul Lanteigne (R).
Drake's vulnerability is underscored by the fact that she drew a serious primary challenger. Kellam is a strong DCCC recruit, with high name recognition and connections. This will be a good race, and I'd posit that having Jim Webb atop the ticket will only help Kellam in this Navy-heavy district.
Second Tier
26. Indiana 02 (Chocola) (24) (filing passed, primary May 2): Atty & 2004 Nom. Joe Donnelley (D) or College Prof. Steve Francis (D) vs. Rep. Chris Chocola (R) or Vet Tony Zirkle (R).
The expected Donnelley & Chocola rematch will test how much Indiana has swung and how Bush and Gov. Mitch Daniels' twin disapproval ratings will weigh down GOP members of Congress.
27. Ohio 01 (Chabot) (27) (filing passed): Cincinnati Councilman John Cranley (D) vs. Rep. Steve Chabot (R).
Cranley is a very strong recruit in a state that was mostly recruitment disappointments for the Dems. While the 2002 remap made this seat more GOP, any Dem who can turn out downtown Cincinnati can win here. Cranley was the top vote-getter in the last city council election, so perhaps he's that candidate.
28. Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon) (31) (filing passed): Fmr. Admiral Joe Sestak (D) vs. Rep. Curt Weldon (R).
It seems like every time I do an update, this race moves up the list. The combination of the facts that Sestak is a great recruit, the district is lean Dem and trending more so (see PA-06 and PA-08 writeups), and Weldon has never been seriously tested make this a promising opportunity. The GOP is starting to get concerned and has moved to bolster Weldon.
29. Ohio 15 (Pryce) (28) (filing passed): Franklin Cty. Comm. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Rep. Deborah Pryce (R).
Columbus is trending Dem and Pryce has her first ever serious opponent ever in Kilroy. The GOP brand in Ohio is suffering and Dem Ted Strickland will be romping at the top of the ticket.
30. Minnesota 02 (Kline) (33) (filing July 18, primary September 12): State Sen. Sharon Marko (D) or Fmr. FBI Agent Colleen Rowley (D) vs. Rep. John Kline (R).
Marko is a top recruit who should be able to press Kline in this swing district.
31. New Jersey 07 (Ferguson) (29) (filing April 10, primary June 6): State Rep. Linda Stender (D) vs. Rep. Mike Ferguson (R).
Stender is a top recruit in this swing district. Other than the Senate race, there is little else for the state Dem machine to focus on in November.
32. Colorado 04 (Musgrave) (32) (filing May 25, primary August 8): State Rep. Angie Paccione (D) vs. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (D).
Musgrave is a lightning rod who has squeaked by in a district a GOPer shouldn't have too much trouble with. Can she survive a Dem year?
33. Arizona 05 (Hayworth) (81): State Sen. Harry Mitchell (D) vs. Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R).
Mitchell is a top-notch recruit to face Hayworth in this swing-to-lean-GOP district. Hayworth's name has come up in the Abramoff mess. If he gets into trouble, expect this to continue to move up.
34. Florida 09 (OPEN) (34) (filing May 12, primary September 5): Fmr. Hillsborough Cty. Comm. Phyllis Busansky (D), Realtor Fred Taylor (D), or Atty. Bill Mitchell (D) vs. State Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R) or Chiropractor David Langheier (R).
Busansky is the Dem favorite and she's made some headway, but Bilirakis almost has incumbency advantage trying to succeed his father.
35. Nevada 03 (Porter) (not ranked) (filing April 3, primary August 15): Fmr. Sen. Reid spokeswoman Tessa Hafen (D) or Chiropractor & Conv. Felon Barry Michaels (D) vs. Rep. Jon Porter (R).
Hafen's entry makes this swing-seat race competitive.
36. California 11 (Pombo) (37) (filing passed, primary June 6): Pilot & Navy vet Steve Filson (D) (156 & 102), Mathematician & 2004 Nom. Jerry McNerney (D), or Stevan Thomas (D) vs. Rep. Richard Pombo (R), Fmr. Rep. Pete McCloskey (R), or Ret. Farmer Tom Benigno (R).
Pombo is beginning to see his shady dealings catch up to him. He's trying to hold off several scandals. This one may move up if the muck gets deeper.
37. New York 29 (Kuhl) (35) (filing July 13, primary September 12): Fmr. Naval Officer Eric Massa (D) vs. Rep. Randy Kuhl (R).
Massa has built a strong organization for his race against freshman Kuhl. Is it enough in the most GOP district in New York?
38. West Virginia 02 (Capito) (36) (filing passed, primary May 9): Fmr. WV EPA Sec'y & Fmr. WV Dem Chair Mike Callaghan, State Rep. Mark Hunt (D), or South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb (D) vs. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).
Capito's missteps following the mine tragedy will not help her hold off what should be her strongest opponent yet.
39. New Hampshire 01 (Bradley) (46) (filing June 16, primary September 12): State House Min. Ldr. Jim Craig (D), Publisher Gary Dodds (D), State Rep. Peter Sullivan (D), Atty. Pete Duffy (D), or Rochester City Dem Chair Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R).
Craig is the big name Dems were hoping for. Bradley won't be easy to knock off, however; he has projected a moderate image in this swing district.
40. New York 20 (Sweeney) (53) (filing July 13, primary September 12): Atty. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) or Ret. Stockbroker Morris Guller (D) vs. Rep. John Sweeney (R).
Roll Call has called this the Dems best pickup opportunity in New York. Gillibrand is a very strong candidate, and the district is swing-to-lean-GOP. Plus, Sweeney is having health issues. This one may move up.
41. Nevada 02 (OPEN) (43) (filing April 3, primary August 15): NV Univ. Sys. Regent Jill Derby (D) vs. NV Sec. State Dean Heller (R), State Rep. Dawn Gibbons (R), State Rep. Sharron Angle (R).
Ugly and expensive. That is what Derby needs the GOP primary to be to win in this GOP district. If Rep. Jim Gibbons' wife wins the nomination and he wins the Gov. nomination, I'd imagine this gets tougher, but if one of the others wins, will there be intraparty animosity?
42. Kentucky 02 (Lewis) (58) (filing passed, primary May 16): State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) or James Rice (D) vs. Rep. Ron Lewis (R).
Weaver was a recruiting coup. He is the perfect Dem for this district, a traditional "Southern Democratic" district won by GOPer Lewis in 1993. Will it be enough to take a district that Bush won by 30 points in 2004?
43. Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht) (44) (filing July 18, primary September 12): Teacher & Nat'l Guard vet Tim Walz (D) vs. Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R).
Walz has been running a solid campaign in this swing district. Gutknecht is breaking a term-limit pledge. Will it hurt him?
44. Iowa 02 (Leach) (26) (filing passed): Prof. David Loebsack (D) vs. Rep. Jim Leach (R).
Loebsack actually came in with too few signatures on his petitions. In Iowa, however, the party can put him on the ballot anyway. Still, not a good sign in a district where Leach has no business winning in a Dem wave year (Kerry and Gore both won it by 8 points).
45. Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry) (not ranked) (filing passed, primary May 9): Fmr. NE Lt. Gov. Maxine Moul (D) or James Wilson (D) vs. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R).
Moul is a heavyweight who should make this a race even in deep red Nebraska. The man she served as Lt. Gov. under, Ben Nelson, should cruise to reelection to the Senate and may give Moul a leg up.
46. Illinois 11 (Weller) (42): Fmr. CIA Agent John Pavich (D) vs. Rep. Jerry Weller (R).
Pavich is an intriguing candidate given his background and Weller's questionable South American ties.
47. Illinois 10 (Kirk) (60): Marketing Exec. Dan Seals (D) vs. Rep. Mark Kirk (R).
Seals has looked like a strong candidate of late and won his primary with ease. The district went for Kerry by 6 points, but Kirk is smooth and well-funded.
48. Florida 24 (Feeney) (45) (filing May 12, primary September 5): Veterinarian Andy Michaud (D) or Comp. Programmer Clint Curtis (D) vs. Rep. Tom Feeney (R).
Feeney is mired in the Abramoff muck. Michaud is a decent candidate (pretty good fundraising and ran for office before), and the district is swing-to-lean-GOP. This one intrigues me.
49. New York 19 (Kelly) (51) (filing July 13, primary September 12): Atty. Judy Aydelott (D), Singer John Hall, High school principal Ben Shuldiner (D), Yorktown Councilman Jim Martorano (D), Political consult. Darren Rigger (D), or Principal Gary Suraci (D) vs. Rep. Sue Kelly (R) or Log Cabin GOP Nat'l Field Dir. Jeff Cook (R).
Kelly has not had a competitive race in this swing district since coming to Congress. That looks likely to change this year.
50. New Hampshire 02 (Bass) (30) (filing June 16, primary September 12): Atty. & 2004 Nom. Paul Hodes (D), Bus. Bret Clemons (D), or Import Merch. Caleb Johnson (D) vs. Rep. Charles Bass (R) or Berlin Mayor Bob Danderson (R).
This is actually the more Dem of the two NH seats, but the party has not found a top tier opponent for Bass, who has coasted since 1998. Still, Hodes took 40% in 2004 and Kerry won it by 6 points.
51. Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood) (64) (filing passed, primary May 16): Prof. & Naval Reserve Off. Chris Carney (D) vs. Rep. Don Sherwood (R) or Kathy Scott (R).
Sherwood (60+ years old and married) actually got sued by his former twenty-something mistress. Will that play in valuesland? The Dem candidate, Chris Carney is a moderate military guy who should fit the district, which gave Bush a 20-point win in '04 and has not gone Dem in almost 150 years.
Third Tier
52. New York 26 (Reynolds) (45) (filing July 13, primary September 12): Bus. & 2004 Nom. Jack Davis (D) vs. Rep. Tom Reynolds (R).
Davis held Reynolds to a 56-44 win in his maiden campaign in '04. He has yet to do anything for this race, but appears to be running again.
53. Pennsylvania 04 (Hart) (52) (filing passed, primary May 16): Manufacturing Exec. Georgia Berner (D) or Fmr. Hospital Exec. Jason Altmire (D) vs. Rep. Melissa Hart (R).
Former Dem Rep. Ron Klink flirted with a comeback bid but declined. Both Dems have been active and are good fundraisers. The district is swing to lean GOP.
54. California 04 (Doolittle) (66) (filing passed, primary June 6): Fmr. Air Force Off. Charles Brown (D), Non-profit Pres. Lisa Rea (D), or Atty. Michael Hamersley (D) vs. Rep. John Doolittle (R) or Auburn Vice-Mayor Mike Holmes (R).
As Doolittle inches toward an Abramoff-related indictment, this solidly GOP northern CA district looks more and more competitive. Brown is a good fit for the district.
55. New York 25 (Walsh) (54) (filing July 13, primary September 12): Bus. Dan Maffei (D), Atty. Paloma Capanna (D), Teacher Ken Howland (D), or Teacher Christina Rosetti (D) vs. Rep. Jim Walsh (298 & 509).
This is a late developer, but Maffei may make this a race. The district, which includes Syracuse, is the most Dem of any held by a NY GOPer--Kerry and Gore both won it.
56. Florida 16 (Foley) (55) (filing May 12, primary September 5): Rancher Tim Mahoney (D), Diplomat Carol McLean (D), Teacher David Lutrin (D), or Political Consult. Emmie Ross (D) vs. Rep. Mark Foley (R).
Mahoney has been a very strong fundraiser and could push Foley in this swing-to-lean-GOP district. Plus, what with the weekly Katherine Harris disasters, Foley may find himself in the Senate race yet.
57. Montana at Large (Rehberg) (56) (filing deadline today, primary June 6): State Rep. Monica Lindeen (D) or Gas Station Owner Eric Gunderson (D) vs. Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R).
Dems are on the rise in Montana, and Lindeen is a solid candidate. There are rumors that Rehberg may jump into the Senate race.
58. Wyoming at Large (Cubin) (57) (filing June 2, primary August 22): Teton Cty. School Bd. Pres. Gary Trauner (D) vs. Rep. Barbara Cubin (R).
Trauner did surprisingly well in a recent poll against the never-popular Cubin. Will Wyoming voters actually elect a Dem to federal office? It hasn't happened in a long time.
59. Florida 08 (Keller) (50) (filing May 12, primary September 5): Bus. Charlie Stuart (D), Orange Cty. Comm. Homer Hartage (D), or Teacher & 2004 Nom. Stephen Murray vs. Rep. Ric Keller (R) or Developer Elizabeth Doran (R).
This is yet another pink district in Florida where the Dems have a strong candidate. Stuart has had solid fundraising thus far.
60. New York 13 (Fossella) (67) (filing July 13, primary September 12): Atty. Stephen Harrison (D) vs. Rep. Vito Fossella.
Dems have been frantically looking for candidates to challenge the only NYC GOP Congressman.
61. California 26 (Dreier) (49) (filing passed, primary June 6): Bus. Russ Warner (D), Consult. & '04 Nom. Cynthia Matthews (D), or Screenwriter Hoyt Hilsman (D) vs. Rep. David Dreier (R), Bus. Sonny Sardo (R), or Mel Milton (R).
Dreier had a close shave in 2004, largely over immigration. Will he have another tough time with the issue even more front and center?