[HT to ThinkProgress]
Joseph Cirincione is the Director for Non-Proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He's written Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats and Addressing Non-Proliferation Through Multilaterial Agreement, and co-written Universal Compliance: A Strategy for Universal Security and WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications.
In a new article in Foreign Policy magazine, entitled Fool Me Twice, Cirincione says:
For months, I have told interviewers that no senior policy or military official was seriously considering a military attack on Iran. In the last few weeks, I have changed my view. In part, this shift was triggered by colleagues with close ties to the Pentagon and the executive branch who have convinced me that some senior officials have already made up their minds: They want to hit Iran.
The unfolding administration strategy appears to be an effort to repeat its successful campaign for the Iraq war. It is now trying to link Iran to the 9/11 attacks by repeatedly claiming Iran is the main state sponsor of terrorism in the world (though this suggestion is highly questionable). It is also attempting to make the threat urgent by arguing that Iran might soon pass a "point of no return" if it can perfec the technology of enriching uranium, even though many other nations have gone far beyond Iran's capabilities and stopped their programs short of weapons. And, of course, it is now publically linking Iran to the Iraqi insurgency and the improvised explosive devices used to kill and maim US troops in Iraq, though Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Peter Pace admitted there is no evidence to support this claim.
If diplomacy fails, the administration might be able to convince leading Democrats to back leading Democrats to back a resolution for the use of force against Iran. Many Democrats have been trying to burnish a hawkish image and place themselves to the right of the president on this issue. They may find themselves trapped by their own rhetoric, particularly those with presidential ambitions.
Yeah, I'm looking at you, Hillary.
Later, Cirincione calls for full public disclosure of all information relating to Iran's threat to the US, quite a radical concept and a stark contrast from the decision-making leading up to the Iraq war. God forbid we have an honest policy debate in this country before we make such crucial decisions.
The administration should now declassify the information it used to estimate how long it wil be until Iran has the capability to make a bomb. The Washington Post reported last August that this national intelligence estimate says Iran is a decade away. We need to see the basis for this judgement and all, if any, dissenting opinions. The congressional intelligence committees should be conducting their own reviews of the assessments, including open hearings with independent experts and IAEA officials. Influential groups, such as the Council on Foreign Relations, should conduct their own sessions and studies.
An accurate and fully understood assessment of the status and potential of Iran's nuclear program is the essential basis for any policy. We cannot let the political or ideological agenda of a small group determine a national security decision that could create havoc in a critical area of the globe. Not again.
Emphasis mine, of course.
Cirincione isn't alone. Arnaud de Borchgrave of UPI recently reported:
A prominent "neocon," still in good odor at the White House and OSD (Office of the Secretary of Defense), speaking privately, assured us that by the time president Bush leaves office in January 2009, Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions would be history.
Assuming tough sanctions -- draconian or otherwise -- don't bring Iran's mullahs to heel, we inquired, trying not to sound too wimpish, what would be Mr. Bush's next step?
"B-2s," this prominent armchair strategist replied. "Two of them could do the job in a single strike against multiple targets." With a crew of two per bomber, only four American lives would be at risk, an all-time record in the history of warfare.
Later in the same article from the same neocon source:
The neocon informant says there is "absolutely no way" Bush will accommodate to an Iranian nuke or two, the way he blinked first with North Korea. His uncompromising view of the Iranian nuclear danger and his determination to prevent it by force of two B-2s if necessary is "as solid as his resolve to rid Iraq of Saddam Hussein."
...
The ranking neocon thought this would be sometime between next November's elections and the presidential election two years later.
The Democratic Party's recent Real Security plan mentioned Iran once:
Redouble efforts to stop nuclear weapons development in Iran and North Korea.
Quite a vague statement regarding arguably the most important policy decision this nation will face in the next few years. Hopefully this time around, Congress won't be fooled twice.
While I was typing this quaoar has diaried this from Kevin Drum, likewise responding to Cirincione's article:
There's no question that the administration is already preparing the ground for an air strike on Iran, but it's likely that the real push won't come until late summer when it can be used as a cudgel in the midterm elections. Same song, new verse.
And once more: If Democrats don't start thinking about how they're going to respond to this, they're idiots. We don't always get to pick the issues to run on. Sometimes they're picked for us.
Certainly possible. Though, a tactical strike on Iran based on preliminary intelligence reports would swing the nation ever further to Democrats. Moreover, the Bush administration just doesn't have the credibility and nation-wide support to fearmonger Congress and the country into war anymore. In that respect, the decision to strike Iran may not come from Congress at all. The Bush administration, never much for consultation and consensus-building, may just act swiftly without Congressional approval. Hell, if the president's NSA program is fine by Congress, maybe just a secretive briefing of a few of the "Gang of 8" and that's that. Bombs away.