Now that Rosalind Kurita has dropped out of the race, to the chagrin of many in Tennessee and here on the Intertron, the speculation turns to Harold Ford's prospective Republican opponent for the fall elections.
There are three Republican contenders for the Senate nomination, currently locked in a bitter primary. These three are Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, the perceived moderate, and former Congressmen Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, both hard-core right-wingers.
This is a crucial race in our efforts to take back the Senate this fall (as, indeed, they all are). It is currently either the fifth- or sixth-most likely to flip, and we must gain six seats for a majority. As I am rather skeptical about our chances of taking Rhode Island if Chafee wins renomination, I'm currently interested in Tennessee.
So my question is this. Who is the ideal Republican, out of these three, for Ford to face off against in November?
Corker has the most money of the three Republicans, coming in behind only Ford in fundraising. I believe he also has the backing of the "Republican establishment", up to a point.
Bryant has the backing of a number of conservative Tennessee organizations like Tennessee Right to Life.
Hilleary seems to be somewhat tarnished as a statewide candidate, as he lost a statewide election to Governor Phil Bredesen in 2002. Bryant also lost the Republican nomination for Senate to Lamar Alexander that year, but he did better in that race than many figured he would.
Currently, Ford is trailing Bryant by several points in the polls. Zogby has him losing to Bryant 49-42, and that is the closest margin that Zogby has posted for the two. Rasmussen has Bryant ahead 45-36, although in January, Ford was within the margin of error, 42-40.
Ford also trails Hilleary as of now, although the margin is significantly smaller. Hilleary is ahead 47-44 according to Zogby, and 43-35 according to Rasmussen.
Corker, however, is losing to Ford in Zogby's most recent matchup (Zogby did not post numbers on the free site, but commented on this), and has been trailing Ford in a number of Rasmussen polls as well, though not the most recent one.
I think that the nomination is currently between Corker and Bryant, with Hilleary on the outside. Here's the case for both of them as our preferred Ford opponent.
Corker: Ford consistently polls better against Corker than the other two, often beating him. Corker's name recognition is lower than Ford's and lower than his opponents'. Corker does not excite the right-wing base like Bryant does; doctrinaire right-wingers might abandon Corker. Not that they'll vote for Ford; they just won't vote.
Bryant: While he's beating Ford in the polls right now, he doesn't have Ford's money, or Corker's. Ford would have a great money advatage against Bryant that wouldn't be there against Corker. Bryant will be much less popular among moderates after the Republican primary (I assume Corker will try to paint him as an extremist), while Ford doesn't have a primary to spend on or worry about. Ford's moderate credentials ring true next to a wingnut like Bryant. Bryant also served in the House for eight years, like Hilleary, and was a Gingrich Revolutionary. Ford will have a good time campaigning against the failed policies of the Republican Congress, and the Culture of Corruption, and Bryant is most definitely a part of that.
So, for those Kossacks who are closer to the race, or know more about it than I do...what do you think? Who would you want Ford to face in the fall?