According to today's column by Charlie Cook, probably the top election analyst in the country, there is indeed a party suffering from a motivation gap this year. And, contrary to what kos and others have posited it's not the Dems. Titled "Caution: Bumpy Road Ahead", Cook's column today details why his polling indicates that the GOP is set to take a beating in November. It's on the nationaljournal pay site, so a link is pointless, but here are a couple of choice quotes:
There is growing evidence that Republicans will face a voter turnout problem in the November midterm elections. ...
It is clear that these issues have taken a toll. RT Strategies...found that when respondents were asked which party they would like to see in control of Congress after these elections, Democrats had an advantage of 11 points among all adults, 48-37 percent, 12 points among registered voters, 49-37 percent, and 17 points among the most likely voters, 53-36 percent.
In the other variation of what has come to be known as the generic congressional ballot test, when people were asked whether they planned on voting for the Democratic candidate for Congress or the Republican, Democrats led by 12 points among adults, 44-32 percent; by 13 points among registered voters, 45-32 percent; and by a whopping 18 points among those most likely to vote, 50-32 percent. ...
60 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans qualified as very likely voters; those levels are generally more reflective of a presidential race rather than turnout for a midterm election. If someone was looking for the best possible warning sign of a voter turnout problem for Republicans, the level of interest would be it.
Cook goes on to note the trends in these numbers: that as a polling sample is distilled based on likelihood of actually casing a ballot, that the Dems do better and better. He also notes that this is in marked contrast to the last two elections (2002 and '04), when Dems were comparatively less motivated. Note, too, the 60% figure for highly interested Dems, which Cook notes is more akin to a presidential race. The bottom line: Democratic voters are loaded for bear, and Republicans are less motivated even than independents.
Given that this is the case, our defenses of our own incumbents should be much easier. I fully expect most of the Congresspersons listed below to ultimately win handily, nonetheless, the following are still races to watch:
I have been keeping track of all the potentially close races. Part I (http://www.dailykos.com/...) covered the 18 competitive open seats (12R, 6D). Part IIa (http://www.dailykos.com/...) covered the first 28 of the fully 55 competitive races featuring a GOP incumbent (states A-M), plus an update for the open Ohio 06 and 13 since the Ohio numbers weren't in last week. Part IIb (http://www.dailykos.com/...) finishe the GOP incumbent races, and Part III here looks at the 18 competitive races with a Dem incumbent. In this context, "competitive" can still mean longshot--it just means that the challenger is in place and doing well and the district is not so tilted that lightning couldn't strike. In other words, a lot of these are longshots.
(Sidenote: The open seat list left off OK-05, NE-03, CO-05, and ID-01--four races where we have good candidates with very good fundraising numbers (except OK-05) but I just couldn't see the Dems winning any of the four districts unless a GOP nominee gets busted for kiddie porn the week before the election. If anyone disagrees with my assessment, I'd love to hear it. The same goes for races left off this list.)
There are three numbers after each name separated by slashes: 1st Quarter fundraising total/Total fundraising this cycle/cash on hand. All figures are in thousands of dollars.
Democratic incumbent races
Arkansas 02
Vic Snyder* (D) 106/ 106/ 75
Andy Mayberry (R) 13/ 62/ 1
California 47
Loretta Sanchez* (D) 165/ 685/ 932
Tan Nguyen (R) 7/ 301/ 49
Angel Coronado (R) 112/ 387/ 10
Rose Avila (R) 59/ 59/ 25
Colorado 03
John Salazar* (D) 307/1324/1045
Scott Tipton (R) 103/ 324/ 208
Georgia 08
Jim Marshall* (D) 204/ 978/1048
Mac Collins (R) 256/ 958/ 699
Georgia 12
John Barrow* (D) 260/1256/1113
Max Burns (R) 223/ 987/ 682
Illinois 08
Melissa Bean* (D) 539/2317/1754
David McSweeney (R) 619/2083/ 147
Iowa 03
Leonard Boswell* (D) 162/ 955/ 745
Jeff Lamberti (R) 311/ 744/ 505
Kansas 03
Dennis Moore* (D) 195/ 994/ 715
Chuck Ahner (R) 69/ 186/ 159
Louisiana 03
Charlie Melancon* (D) 274/1263/1047
Craig Romero (R) 339/ 783/ 615
North Carolina 13
Brad Miller* (D) 229/ 606/ 291
Vernon Robinson (R) 62/ 243/ 320
New York 01
Tim Bishop* (D) 177/ 867/ 562
Italo Zanzi (R) 43/ 43/ 31
Oregon 01
David Wu* (D) 193/ 951/ 576
Derrick Kitts (R) 79/ 79/ 70
Oregon 04
Pete DeFazio* (D) 121/ 433/ 332
Jim Feldkamp (R) 62/ 220/ 177
Pennsylvania 13
Allyson Schwartz* (D) 306/1729/1240
Raj Bhakta (R) 111/ 222/ 101
South Carolina 05
John Spratt* (D) 341/ 820/1024
Ralph Norman (R) 277/ 697/ 619
Texas 17
Chet Edwards* (D) 492/1629/1296
Van Taylor (R) 383/1176/ 198
Utah 02
Jim Matheson* (D) 172/ 935/ 782
LaVar Christensen (R) 10/ 186/ 169
Virginia 09
Rick Boucher* (D) 206/ 681/ 949
Bill Carrico (R) 16/ 16/ 9
Washington 02
Rick Larsen* (D) 166/ 870/ 820
Doug Roulstone (R) 84/ 362/ 283
West Virginia 01
Alan Mollohan* (D) 403/ 519/ 417
Chris Wakim (R) 66/ 145/ 118