Not more than a few days ago, the National Journal reported that the non-partisan Cook Report was poo-pooing Democrat
Harry Mitchell's chances in Arizona's Fifth against J.D. Hayworth.
In a review of contested races readers learned that while "the political winds [are] blowing in" the favor of Democrats, it would "take a gale to unseat ... entrenched incumbents" like J.D.
Well, it seems like that gale is picking up - and the wind isn't just coming out of the never closed mouth of blowhard J.D. either.
Survey USA has a new poll out that shows Harry Mitchell within 5 points of J.D. Hayworth, and this is without a single T.V. commerical, a single piece of mail, or any other type of paid advertising coming from the challenger.
Survey USA, 5/9/2006, 600 Registered Voters, +/- 4.1%
JD Hayworth (R) - 50%
Harry Mitchell (D) - 45%
Undecided - 5%
This, my friends, is good news ... and not just for those of us living in CD-5.
What, you may be asking, does this mean for Democrats outside of CD-5? My take is this is more proof that the "Abramoff Effect" is in full force and may be exactly what is needed to pull big upsets against those "entrentched republicans" who provide a buffer for a Republican majority in the House.
Taking this even deeper - I think AZ CD-5 could be a blueprint for what it takes to position ourselves for the possiblity of turning red districts, blue.
Now, this didn't come easy in CD-5. Getting guys like Hayworth who are the perfect trifecta of corrupt, obnoxious, and out of touch, into a places of vulnerability rarely JUST HAPPENS ... it takes some work.
I understand that many people who are members of this community think THE answer is "running a candidate in every district". I disagree - not with the running everywhere strategy which I'm a HUGE fan of - but with with the notion that running everywhere is THE answer. Fact is, that is only PART of the solution. Finding a candidate is important, but so is finding the RIGHT candidate. Even with the RIGHT candidate, you still need a good, strong, solid operation in the district BEFORE anything else starts to fall in place. In other words - we can get the right messenger, the right timing, and even the right MESSAGE - but we need STRONG local democratic networks and organizations paying attention and working for these races that DC thinks is impossible.
While Harry Mitchell is an honest man, and a fantastic candidate with a great record as Mayor of Tempe (he remained a High School civics teacher for most of his term as mayor) and as a State Senator, the simple truth is Democrats SHOULD have no chance in this heavily Republican part of Arizona - period. Enter JD and Abramoff (a man JDclaims he only met a few times "socially") and the situation is right for local dems to make a real difference. With a long term, deliberate effort the outspoken, rosey cheeked, former sports anchor who hates Mexicans - is not looking so good anymore.
Local news coverage, influenced nearly DAILY by an agressive communications team at the Arizona Democratic Party, has painted Hayworth as a corrupt, angry, out of touch, fringe ideologue who looks like a liar every time he defends himself. Heck, even Tim Russert on Meet the Press was motivated by the local organization to bring up JD's problems and mention his opponent on national TV.
This work wasn't done by the DNC, the DCCC, or any other national group. Instead, home grown efforts to get the word out inside the district without the interference of the DC crowd who "knows how to do it" literally MADE this district competitive. Only after these efforts were in full swing and making a difference did DC start to care about AZ-5. Only after J.D. was bruised up pretty bad did a top tier candidate decide risking a dirty mean-spirited smear campaign against him and his family was not enough to keep him from running.
When this happens, when a narrative is created about the candidate we want to beat early, when local voters start paying attention to somethign they never were tuned into before, and with capable local organizations - it makes the desire to drop in outsiders to run things less tempting since the locals earn some credibility. Besides being more committed, having more political context, and caring about the candidate more than their jobs - local operatives being in races like these and doing well helps the local organization in the LONG TERM. Too often campaigns rely on "out of towners" who will pack up and go home by mid November. This leaves those of us committed to where we live out of luck, needing to recreate the wheel every two years.
Despite what the National Journal says, the winds ARE blowing in the right direction and strong enough for Harry Mitchell's chances this November. Clearly, this race is going to be a HUGE uphill battle for the Ds - but it is nice to see things are going well so far. It is my strong hope that in the future, especially with Dean's 50 state strategy, that more local organizations will be able to do what seems to be happening in AZ's CD-5. Just imagine how much stronger our party and our country will be if my hope becomes a reality.
Here is the district map:
Here is Harry's Web Page:
www.harrymitchellforcongress.com