A Daily Kos diarist called
jbou posted
a diary mentioning a recent NYT poll where the numbers for Gore were: 28% favorable, 39% unfavorable, 25% undecided, 8% haven't heard enough.
In other words, a net of 33%, i.e. a third of those polled, did not choose either of the two favorable/unfavorable options.
But, in a Newsweek poll reported on by Atrios, these were the numbers: Gore 49% favorable, 43% unfavorable (Newsweek Poll, May 2006)
Before we get to that, here's an awesome Gore for President picture (courtesy of kayakbiker), hopefully a bumper sticker soon!
Crossposted at The Gore Portal, and MLW.
This poll is corraborated by the most recent such polls taken by other polling outfits (data can be found at the the polling report archives linked below):
Poll, Date, Fav, Unfav,No Op.
Gallup, 6/03, 49/45/6
Fox, 1/04, 47/44/9
Newsweek, 5/06, 49/43/8
If we compare the table above to Times' numbers, clearly, the NYT polls stands out as an anamoly.
Why the discrepancy between NYT and other polls? A plausible explanation is the following: the poll answer "haven't heard enough" is somewhat close to "no opinion", but the "undecided" option in addition allows the respondent to essentially avoid answering the question.
To gain further insight, let us compare the two new polls:
NYT: 28% favorable, 39% unfavorable, 25% undecided, 8% haven't heard enough.
Newsweek: 49% favorable, 43% unfavorable, 8% no opinion.
At 8% each, the numbers for NYT/"haven't heard enough" and NW/"no opinion" are equal. Assuming these to be strongly correlated, we can then see where the 25% NYT/"Undecided"s come from:
- 21% (= 49-28) from Newsweek/favorables
- 4% (= 43-39) from Newsweek/unfavorables
Based on this and the other polls mentioned above, one can estimate the following:
Estimated favorability Ratings for Al Gore (May 14, 2006):
- A net of 49% favorables:
- 28% hard favorables
- 21% soft favorables
- A net of 43% unfavorables:
- 39% hard unfavorables
- 4% soft unfavorables
- 8% no opinion or unfamiliar
Al Gore has not been seen in the broader public sphere until his SNL Presidential address (a mock address, alas. But, I am glad that his re-introduction to the American public was a lighthearted one, before a more serious appearance with his movie on global warming, An Inconvenient Truth, comes later this month).
I attribute the 21% soft favorables to people's memory of him beginning to fade, but hopefully that will change in the coming months.
From a read of the polling report archive, one can see the following patterns:
- during the Florida recounts, Al Gore's favorables dropped and unfavs rose (GOP was on the attack), and then they recovered somewhat a couple of months later.
- then, his numbers again dipped in late 2002, following his opposition to the Iraq war, and interestingly, at the same time as he was considering a 2004 bid, again to recover shortly after he declared that he was not going to run.
- then the ratings have been generally steady at around 47% favorable and 44% unfavorable, and the latest Newsweek poll shows a modest 2% improvement over them.
The most crucial numbers in politics are a person's unfavorable ratings. George W. Bush, for instance, hovered around the 45-50% unfavorables range come 2004 election time, and he was still certified to have won the nationwide popular vote in that election by a 3% margin.
At around, 43% unfavorables, with a significant potential to improve upon them, Al Gore is quite well-positioned to wage a Presidential run, should he chose to make one.
From my previous article in this series 2008 Field Poll Digest: May 13, 2006, we gather the following regarding the 2008 (potential) primary field:
- Hillary is pulling about 34% nationally, and Gore is coming strong second with around 16% (both nationwide and state polls)
- Gore is catching up in several states. For example: in Georgia, Hillary stands at 31% to Gore's 20%, and a 6 point swing would put Gore in the lead.
Yes, it's stil a long way to November 2008, but as of now, Al Gore is about the only anti-Iraq-war candidate that appears capable of winning the nomination and the general election.
Links
- 5/06 NYT Poll pdf file (courtesy of Atrios)
- More Exciting Poll Results, by Atrios, May 13 2006 (the Newsweek poll is mentioned here).
- Polling Report archive on Gore
- 2008 Field Poll Digest: May 13, 2006, by NL, May 13, 2006
- Chris, Yes, Gore can absolutely win again, by NL, Oct. 13, 2005