Here's something interesting, the conservative strategic forecasting group
Stratfor notes today in
Another Spiral in the Plame Affair that
Months ago, we felt the Plame affair was going to get out of hand. If Rove gets indicted -- and it is not yet certain he will -- then we will declare the situation officially out of hand.
While a Rove indictment is speculation, Stratfor says, it's warranted and "it seems likely that he is or will be shortly" and urge "indict and be done with it." They base this on their belief that "by Washington rules, the specificity and breadth of the rumors tend to make us think they are true." They mention Rove has been in front of the grand jury four times as one of the indicators of indictment (I thought it was five, but what do I know?) What happens, they ask, if Dick Cheney is indicted?
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My experience with Stratfor is that they are conservative in their bent and not given to speculation without cause. And while they report that "[s]peculating on his replacement as vice president means little...." this "scenario cannot be ignored."
So what happens if Cheney resigns prior to the mid-term elections?
Obviously, they note, Bush would have to get approval froma republican controlled Congress, which contains several people with presidential aspirations.
Sen. John McCain, for example, might be a popular choice, but the Democrats don't want him running as a presidential candidate from the vice presidency -- and his potential Republican rivals really don't want to see him handed the nomination on a platter. Moreover, Bush doesn't much like him -- although with a popularity rating at 31 percent, Bush's likes and dislikes matter less than before.
So, there has to be a Republican who won't tear Congress apart and who will improve rather than reduce Bush's standing. The obvious choice would be former Secretary of State Colin Powell, except that by all accounts he does not like Bush and doesn't want to bail him out. Plus, his position on a number of issues would make him anathema to the right wing. But, Powell is popular and respected, and he has made it clear that he has no appetite for the presidency. Apart from the personal dislike, that's not a bad choice for Bush.
If McCain is wrong for selection and Powell not interested, what does Bush do in the case of a Cheney resignation?
Ten days before the Libby indictment, U.S. News and World Report noted rumors flying about an imminent Cheney resignation:
Sparked by today's Washington Post story that suggests Vice President Cheney's office is involved in the Plame-CIA spy link investigation, government officials and advisers passed around rumors that the vice president might step aside and that President Bush would elevate Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
I don't know why Stratfor doesn't mention her in their latest Geopolitical Diary. Maybe they know something I don't. But what the hell, it's all in good fun.
Updated to improve title.