It is primary election day here in Oregon and what appeared to be a pretty clear picture a week ago has gotten quite muddled. Read below for more info.
A week ago I blogged about some of Oregon's top races (okay mostly some of Portland's top races) and since then there have been many contradictory trends taking place. Below is a summary of statewide/congressional races:
Note: Once results are finalized I will be back with an early read on all the fall races (State Legisaltive and above) statewide by the end of the week.
Overarching factor, turnout: Turnout will likely hit 40-45% this year, which is lower than one might expect but is tempered somewhat by the fact that a lack of statewide ballot initiatives leading to very low participation by independents.
Governor (D)
Analysis: In the past week Kulongoski has gone on the attack in order to fend off a large cash buy against him by the Grande Ronde Indian Tribe (related to the "Gorge Casino"). Such strategy seems to have tempered the damage somewhat to TK's image and despite all the criticism I think he will win this one going away.
Projection: Kulongoski wins with around 50-55% of the vote.
Governor (R)
Analysis: Wow, this race has gone from a two way race to a three way free for all. With Mannix and Saxton busy releasing progressively more ridiculous negative ads against each other, Jason Atkinson has managed to sail under the crap and vault himself into contention. This race is easily the least predictable of the three and the question may come down to, if Atkinson really has momentum, did he get enough to win or to throw the eleciton to someone else?
Projection: I'm sticking with Mannix in a very close result (by less than 3%), but this could really go to any of three major candidates. If Atkinson wins this, it would rank among the biggest upsets in Oregon political history.
Congress, 2nd District (D)
Analysis: So many good candidiates, so little time. My guess is that this will come down to either Butcher or Voisin, but this is anyone's race.
Projection: Butcher wins a tight one over Voisin by less than 2%.
State Schools (Nonpartisan)
Analysis: No change here, Castillo in a walk.
Projection: Castillo with 70% of the vote.
Surpreme Court
Analysis: Not much of a change here as well, but Roberts has gone into heavy cash buys recently. Still, I think he falls short.
Projection: Linder/Hallman runoff.
Comments welcome...