We've got past the June 6 primaries. Since I've been following Richard Pombo, (R, CA-11) for awhile, here's my reflections on the results.
Democrats
- 18,859 Jerry McNerney
- 10,398 Stephen Nigel Filson
- 6,884 Stevan Thomas
Republicans
- 28,574 Richard W. Pombo
- 14,568 Paul N. "Pete" Mc Closkey, Jr.
- 2,635 Thomas (Tom) A. Benigno
Pombo barely topped a third of the votes (34.9%) in the primary. This is not the "catbird seat" for a powerful incumbent seeking his eighth term in the house. More on the numbers...
First:
Congratulations! to Jerry McNerney for his decisive win in the Democratic primary. He gets a second run at Pombo, this time with real support from the national party, it would seem. An engineer with professional experience in alternative energy will be an excellent addition to the mix in the
People's House.
Here's a few assumptions on the numbers:
- Democratic voters will all support McNerney.
- Benigno voters will support Pombo.
- McCloskey voters will support McNerney. Except, since they're Republicans, I'll be cautious and say that McNerney and Pombo split McCloskey's supporters due to party loyalty over issues.
Apportioning the votes on that basis, we find:
Pombo votes = 38,493 - 47.0%
McNerney votes = 43,425 - 53.0%
Good news! Though to recall the words of that great folk philosopher, Yogi Berra: It's not over 'till it's over. So there's still plenty of work to be done to bring Pombo down.
Furthermore: non-affiliated voters undervote in primaries, and represent 19% of the district's voters. If the election were held today, my guess is that they'd break in McNerney's favor. McCloskey ran hard against everything that Pombo stands for, so I'm guessing they'll break more in McNerney's favor than 50-50, and tip the numbers more than shown above.
Turnout affects results. DCCC poll last year - when Pombo's many misdeeds were less well-known than they are now - showed relatively low enthusiasm within the district for his performance. Pombo's lost his most powerful champion: Tom Delay and his power network, and so has to readjust his modus operandi.
Pombo has a cadre of enthusiastic supporters, and lots of people who give him money. But there's a lot of sentiment against him, too. I predict that motivation of those against him will be higher than for him. Karl Rove's election principles include: Attack the opponent's strength. In Pombo's case, it's big money and big corporations, which aren't especially popular with the public.
MARIANAS ISLANDS: POMBO's ACHILLES HEEL
Or one of them anyhow. Prediction on this topical issue: George Miller's introduced a new bill for protection of workers in the Marianas Islands. Diary on it last night by dengre. Now that the Tan family's donating to Hillary Clinton, and Abramoff and Delay are out of the picture pushing for the sweatshop owners and sextraffickers of the CNMI, Pombo just might get religion on this one.
Now that he's in trouble, he'll stop blocking hearings, and House Resources/Insular Affairs will start looking into this stuff. Pombo will be Shocked! Outraged! by goings on in the CNMI, while claiming ignorance of the horrible goings on there. Never mind that it's been wilful ignorance.
This should be taken as a sign of Pombo's weakness. And, with some luck, there'll be something done to help those poor abused women in the CNMI. Anyone with a shred of decency in their heart should be relieved and thankful for that. Just recall that it was corrupt, powerful Republicans like Abramoff and Delay, together with their Lieutenants like Pombo, who kept these despicable conditions in place for so long. And that bringing them down is what is - finally - showing some hope for conditions to improve.
We can be confident that Jerry McNerney will have a better position on this issue (though as a freshman, not so much power as Pombo's amassed). I'm looking forward to Nick Rahall (D-WV) to publicly get on board the CNMI issue. With a flip of majorities in the House, he'll take over the Chair of House Resources. And much of the fate of CNMI garment workers and sex traffickers will rest in his hands.