A blurb today over at PoliticalWire.com mentions that 2008 Presidential hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Russ Feingold both gave congratulatory phone calls to Iowa gubernatorial candidate Ed Fallon. Who is Ed Fallon you say? Well, he just pulled off a successful grassroots effort in the Iowa primary, coming in third with a surprisingly high vote total of 26%. This obviously begs the question: So what?
The answer lies in the modern history of Presidential politics, specifically with the meteoric rise from obscurity that Jimmy Carter enjoyed in the 1976 campaign. This was a time in which Watergate still hung heavy over Washington like a dark cloud, and the spectre of the Vietnam War was haunting the American psyche. Out of this dark political climate arose a good ol' boy from Georgia, whose smile and Southern drawl gave him a refreshing feel amidst the stagnant backdrop of the status quo.
But as Goddard
reminds us, the key to Carter's victory lay in his brilliant use of grassroots tactics in the primary season to bring together the dissatisfied members of his party into a cohesive political force. He accomplished this by uniting the losers of primary battles in key states, and appealing to their sense of being an 'outsider' to the party norm. While Clinton may not embody the 'outside-the-beltway' spirit inherent in this movement, and Feingold's position as an established force in the Senate does not help him either, I think that they serve as an interesting example of what may be to come in 2008: The Year of the Dark Horse.
I know that many of you are at this point pulling for your favorite candidates in 2008, and trust me, I am as well. We all would love to see Al Gore or Russ Feingold storm into Washington and clean house. But after looking at this situation without my bias, I can't help but think we might be standing on the brink of a watershed moment similar to that of 1976. The proof to me lies in the complete lack of trust the American people have for their government, as indicated by this Zogby poll:
Overall, just 3% said they think Congress in general is trustworthy, compared to 24% who said President Bush is trustworthy and 29% who said they can put their faith in the national court system, the survey shows. Corporate leaders in America are nearly as widely distrusted as Congress - just 7% said they are trustworthy.
Another poll, this one by Diageo/Hotline seems to show the same thing:
A majority of voters are dissatisfied with the current state of politics in the United States today, with 67% expressing dissatisfaction and only 31% expressing satisfaction. Only 2% of voters said they were "very satisfied" with the current state of politics in the United States. 20% of Democratic voters and 29% of Independents are somewhat or very satisfied with the current state of politics in the country, while 48% of Republicans say the same.
When asked why they are dissatisfied with the current state of politics today, "too much corruption" was cited as the primary reason by 39% and 43% of voters in a split sample question. Voters identified partisanship as the second most common reason for dissatisfaction: "Republicans and Democrats fight too much" (29%, Split Sample B) and "Democrats and Republicans don't work together" (23% Split Sample A) were cited as specific complaints among voters.
Now, any student of politics knows that public dissatisfaction with Congress is nothing new, but I believe the complete anger toward Washington in general is going to work against any established political force from inside the beltway, and could serve as an asset for a former state Governor like Jimmy Carter was. The obvious question then becomes whether Clinton or Feingold can tap into this grassroots, dark horse persona, and the answer is most likely no. Feingold has credentials in the progressive community, but whether he can translate this grassroots attitude into a successful dark horse run will depend on his ability to convince the electorate that he represents something other than Feingold the Senator. Even John Edwards seems to want to fill this role, but his association with both the Senate and John Kerry means that he has his work cut out for him to establish his 'outsider' status.
The bottom line is that I think we are kidding ourselves if we think we can run an entrenched incumbent from Congress to victory in 2008. The mood of the nation is restless, and they are calling for 'one of their own.' Only time will tell if someone will be able to turn this dissatisfaction into victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, but I think that Clinton and the rest of the front runners should have one eye forward and one eye backward, because the stars seeme aligned for a repeat of 1976: The Year of the Dark Horse could be upon us.
(Originally Posted at Deny My Freedom)
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Alright, so let's hear it: Who are your favorite dark horse candidates for 2008? Am I completely off base with this? Is Russ Feingold going to take his maverick attitude and turn it into the outsider campaign we all are looking for? What about Al Gore?
My personal prediction in this regard is to keep an eye on Gen. Wesley Clark, because I have heard him speak and he has the ability to capture a room like few else. I know some of you saw him this weekend, and I hope you can speak to this as well. I think he is enough of an outsider to give the established politicians a run for their money.
I'm interested in what you all think, so the floor is yours.