As many of you know, I am a House race watcher who has been periodically ranking the seats, both Dem and GOP in terms of likelihood of turnover to the other party. In this respect, there are unsurprisingly far more GOP seats than Dem seats where there is a chance of turnover.
This diary updates my rankings, taking into account developments including primaries and the CA-50 special. For an explanation of my methodology, see the previous diary: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/5/4/183939/9370
Previous ranking is in parentheses.
GOP Seats
First Tier
1. Iowa 01 (1) (Atty Bruce Braley (D) vs. Restauranteur Mike Whalen (R)): Following the primary, which produced the strongest Dem nominee and arguably the weaker of the two GOP frontrunners, Dems got a scare when disgruntled 3d place finisher Bill Gluba threatened a 3d party run. Fortunately, he recanted and has endorsed Braley this week. Braley has an advantage in this Dem-leaning district.
2. Colorado 07 (3) (Fmr. State Sen. Ed Perlmutter, Fmr. State Rep. Peggy Lamm, or Atty Herb Rubinstein (D) vs. CO Trans. Comm. Rick O'Donnell (R)): I move this race up not because Lamm and Perlmutter are starting to behave themselves--they aren't--but because developments in AZ-08 made me uneasy and because the Dems continue to be on the rise in Colorado.
3. Arizona 08 (2) (State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords or TV News Anchor Patty Weiss (D) vs. State Rep. Steve Huffman, County GOP Chair Mike Hellon, or Fmr. State Rep. Randy Graf (R)): Dems Giffords and Weiss are both running strong campaigns. The primary remains civil, and the GOP has a jumbled field. I get a little uneasy because of the CA-50 special result. If the Republicans can win on "build a wall between us and Mexico" there, they will get some bounce from it in AZ-05 and AZ-08 as well. FWIW, Giffords snagged the EMILY's list endorsement over Weiss.
4. Connecticut 02 (4) (Fmr. State Rep.'02 Nom. Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rep. Rob Simmons (R)): Simmons continues to enjoy two not unrelated honors: he represents the most Democratic district held by a Republican and he's the most vulnerable incumbent in the nation.
5. Pennsylvania 06 (5) (Atty'04 Nom. Lois Murphy (D) vs. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)): Murphy continues to run strongly and the Philly burbs continue to look like hostile territory for the Repubs this year.
6. New Mexico 01 (8) (AZ Atty Gen. Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Rep. Heather Wilson (R)): Madrid continues to look very strong. It is unclear who independent candidate Robert Liebman hurts as I haven't heard of the guy or what he stands for.
7. Indiana 08 (7) (County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Rep. Jon Hostettler (R)): Another month past, another month in which the NRCC is desperately attacking Ellsworth because Hostettler has no resources to do it himself. The last time the "bloody 8th" changed hands was 1994. I like that omen.
8. Connecticut 04 (11) (Westport Selectwoman/'04 Nom. Diane Farrell (D) vs. Rep. Chris Shays (R)): Shays appears more and more on the defensive here. If the Iraq war costs the GOP any seats, this one will be the first.
9. Ohio 18 (10) (Atty Zack Space (D) vs. Rep. Bob Ney (R)): Ney vows to remain in the race even if he is indicted. Space is a second-tier candidate--far weaker than any of the other Dems in the Top 15--but if Ney is campaigning while out on bail that won't matter.
10. Indiana 09 (9) (Fmr. Rep. Baron Hill (D) vs. Rep. Mike Sodrel (R)): The campaigns are already trading barbs in what will be a long, nasty, expensive, and close race. The national (and state dynamics) should push former Rep. Hill over the top.
11. New York 24 (6) (County DA Mike Arcuri (D) or Bus. Les Roberts (D) vs. Ray Meier (R)): The Repubs got a boost when right-winger Brad Jones dropped out, eliminating the possibility of someone other than the GOP nominee appearing on the Conservative ballot line.
12. North Carolina 11 (12) (Fmr. NFL QB Heath Shuler (D) vs. Rep. Charles Taylor (R)): This continues to be closely matched, engaged race. Shuler is proving to be a strong first-time candidate.
13. Florida 22 (13) (FL State House Min. Ldr. Ron Klein (D) vs. Rep. Clay Shaw (R)): Little new to report on one of the closest, most expensive races in the country. Klein is the Dem Leader in the state House.
14. Kentucky 04 (14) (Fmr. Rep. Ken Lucas (D) vs. Rep. Geoff Davis (R)): Lucas will have a close race to reclaim his seat from Davis, the man he beat in '02 (Lucas retired in '04).
15. Minnesota 06 (16) (Child Safety Activist/'04 Nom. Patty Wetterling (D) vs. State Sen. Michelle Bachmann (R)): Following the respective party conventions, Wetterling and Bachmann are the nominees. This is the matchup most Dems wanted; Bachmann looks to be the weakest GOPer for the general election, while Wetterling is probably slightly stronger than her primary rival, El Tinklenberg.
16. Illinois 06 (15) (Iraq vet Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. State Sen. Peter Roskam (R)): Things are fairly quiet for now in the race that will likely most come to be seen as a test of the "Fighting Dem" theme. At this point, only IL-06, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10 and NY-29 feature Tier 2 or better races run by Dem veterans (MN-01 and CA-04 are on the cusp).
17. Wisconsin 08 (17) (Dr. Steve Kagen/Fmr. Mayor, County Exec. Nancy Nusbaum, or Consult. Jamie Wall (D) vs. WI House Speaker John Gard (R)): Bush is flying in to fundraise for Gard. Will this help or hurt?
18. Ohio 15 (24) (County Commis. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Rep. Deborah Pryce (R)): Pryce has had fundraising help from Laura Bush. It's telling that she's kept both the Pres. and the VP out of her district. Bottom line: Franklin County is rapidly trending blue and Pryce has the unenviable task of justifying her actions as a member of the House GOP Leadership to this increasingly hostile electorate.
19. Washington 08 (18) (Software Exec. Darcy Burner (D) vs. Rep. Dave Reichert (R)): Burner is starting to get national notice, with an EMILY's List endorsement. Reichert is bringing in Bush to fundraise--a questionable move in this district.
20. Pennsylvania 08 (19) (Iraq vet Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R)): Murphy's easier than expected win in the primary points to strength going into the fall.
21. Pennsylvania 07 (26) (Ret. Admiral Joe Sestak (D) vs. Rep. Curt Weldon (R)): Sestak has seemingly done everything right since jumping into the race. He clearly has Weldon running scared. It should be noted that although Weldon has not faced a competitive race, PA-08 is the most Dem of the 3 targeted Delaware valley districts (6th, 7th, 8th).
22. Arizona 05 (25) (State Sen.Fmr. Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell (D) vs. Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)): See AZ-08 writeup. Hayworth was probably the second happiest guy with the CA-50 results (after Bilbray himself). He is running almost a one-issue (anti-immigration) campaign in another border district. Still, Mitchell has been impressive and his popularity in Tempe cannot be discounted.
23. Ohio 01 (28) (Cincinnati Councilman John Cranley (D) vs. Rep. Steve Chabot (R)): Cranley continues to push Chabot. Will Strickland have coattails in and around Cincinnati? Cranley (who is popular in the area on his own) could use them against one of the GOP's better campaigners.
24. Virginia 02 (27) (Virginia Beach Revenue Commis. Phil Kellam (D) vs. Rep. Thelma Drake (R)): Webb's win should mean good things for Kellam. It is too early to tell what the effects of MoveOn's ad, Drake's response, and Kellam's silence will have. I suspect that Drake getting in a mudfight with a third party can only help Kellam.
Tweeners
25. Nevada 03 (33) (Sen. Reid Aide Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Rep. Jon Porter (R)): FWIW, the NRCC takes Hafen seriously and now rates this as one of the top 20 races in the country. I don't quite go that far, but Hafen is impressive and is the first solid candidate Porter has had to face in this quintessential swing district in the Las Vegas suburbs.
26. New York 20 (20) (Atty Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Rep. John Sweeney (R)): Sweeney has now announced that he is running again. This race has been very active and the GOP is clearly taking Gillibrand seriously. Sweeney's camp has released a poll with their guy way ahead. Which means they're nervous.
27. Connecticut 05 (23) (State Sen. Chris Murphy (D) vs. Rep. Nancy Johnson (R)): This is the most difficult race in the country for me to handicap--as I've mentioned. On the one hand, you have Johnson's solid vote-getting history, and the fact that this is CT's most GOP district. On the other, you have Murphy's strength and the general anti-GOP mood in CT (unless the GOPer in question is Jodi Rell). Even the Lieberman-Lamont primary produces more question marks.
Second Tier
28. California 11 (40) (Engineer
'04 Nom. Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Rep. Richard Pombo (R)): As Stu Rothenberg pointed out, whenever an incumbent loses more than 1/3 of the primary vote, he's in trouble. Pombo took only 62%. Worse, 32% of the GOP primary vote went to iconoclastic anti-war anti-Bush former Rep. Pete McCloskey. McCloskey has said he doubts strongly that any of his 32% go to Pombo in the fall. Given that the district is about 53.5/46.5 GOP, McCloskey's voters make up a crucial 18% of the electorate. If McNerney can pick up these voters and does not lose his centrist primary opponent, Steve Filson's, supporters, he wins.
29. Indiana 02 (36) (Atty/'04 Nom. Joe Donnelly (D) vs. Rep. Chris Chocola (R)): There has been much focus on Indiana by both parties. While IN-02 is clearly the #3 target in the state, Donnelley has a serious chance in an environment where Bush and Gov. Mitch Daniels are so unpopular in the state and Bill Clinton is coming in to fundraise for the Dems.
30. Texas 22 (35) (Fmr. Rep. Nick Lampson (D) vs. ?????): The race most in limbo. With DeLay's exit, the GOP has a much easier time holding the seat--assuming they will be allowed to name a replacement. The Dems have successfully gotten a judge to temporarily restrain the GOP from making a switch pending a hearing on whether DeLay can be booted off the ticket. While I'd guess that ultimately the GOP will be able to name their replacement, every day Lampson is out campaigning without an opponent increases his chances for victory.
31. Florida 13 (22) (Banker Christine Jennings (D) or Atty/'04 Nom. Jan Schneider (D) vs. Car Dealer Vern Buchanan (R), Banker/Fmr. Sarasota County GOP Chair Tramm Hudson (R), State Rep. Nancy Detert (R), or Fmr. State Rep.Manatee County GOP Chair Mark Flanagan (R)): The Jennings/Schneider primary (the third straight) continues to be nasty--far more so than the GOP side.
32. Pennsylvania 10 (47) (Prof./Naval Res. Officer Chris Carney (D) vs. Rep. Don Sherwood (R)): Sherwood's astoundingly weak showing against a nobody candidate in the primary gives Dems hope. The presence of a Constitution Party candidate should only help Carney.
33. New Jersey 07 (29) (State Rep. Linda Stender (D) vs. Rep. Mike Ferguson (R)): Ferguson had a decent sized lead in a Dem poll, but it's early yet and this race is the NJ Dems' 2d priority after Sen. Menendez's race.
34. New York 29 (37) (Vet Eric Massa (D) vs. Rep. Randy Kuhl (R)): Not much new to report here. The Q2 fundraising numbers will be informative, given how piss-poor Kuhl's Q1 numbers were.
35. Nevada 02 (34) (NV University Sys. Regent Jill Derby (D) vs. NV Sec. State Dean Heller (R), State Rep. Sharron Angle (R), or State Rep. Dawn Gibbons (R)): Derby looks as strong as a Dem can in this district, which is basically all of NV other than Clark County. Gibbons has lots of negatives but continues to lead in GOP primary polls.
36. Colorado 04 (45) (State Rep. Angie Paccione (D) vs. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R)): Musgrave is only up 1 point in a Dem poll. This race is kind of the mirror image of a CT-05. There there is a strong incumbent but a Dem bent to the district; here there is a weak incumbent but a GOP lean. This is kinda like CA-50, although Paccione is a much better candidate than Busby and the race will focus on the incumbent Musgrave in any event.
37. Florida 09 (30) (Fmr. Hillsborough Coounty Comm. Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R)): Cheney's visit means the GOP is at least a bit worried about this seat. Busansky avoided a primary, and so can save resources for the general.
38. New Hampshire 02 (44) (Atty'04 Nom. Paul Hodes (D) vs. Rep. Charles Bass (R)): With polling showing Hodes within striking distance of Bass, I've moved NH-02 up above NH-01.
39. New Hampshire 01 (32) (NH State House Min. Ldr. Jim Craig (D), Magazine Publisher Gary Dodds (D), State Rep. Peter Sullivan (D), Atty Pete Duffy (D), or Rochester Dem Chair Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R)): Craig is clearly the Dem frontrunner. The same poll alluded to above says he has more ground to make up, however. Still, Bradley is under 50%.
40. Wyoming at Large (52) (Teton County Schl. Bd. Pres. Gary Trauner (D) vs. Rep. Barbara Cubin (R)): Cubin continues to look weak. Can a Dem win a federal race in Wyoming? Brownie points to anyone who can name the last time that happened. Hint: I wasn't born yet.
41. Kentucky 03 (31) (John Yarmuth (D) vs. Rep. Anne Northup)
42. New York 19 (41) (multiple candidate primary vs. Rep. Sue Kelly)
43. Kentucky 02 (48) (State Rep. Mike Weaver (D) vs. Rep. Ron Lewis (R)): Lewis is engaging Weaver early, an acknowledgement that this is a race.
44. California 50 (21) (Prof.'04'06 Special Nom. Francine Busby (D) vs. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R)): Busby's announcement that she's suspending campaigning for awhile does not make one confident that she can reverse this month's result.
45. Illinois 10 (38) (Marketing Exec. Dan Seals (R) vs. Rep. Mark Kirk): Seals is starting to get noticed in his challenge to Kirk in this Dem-leaning district.
46. North Carolina 08 (39) (Teacher Larry Kissell (D)vs. Rep. Robin Hayes (R)): This race is heating up. Kissell's Q2 fundraising numbers will be key.
47. New York 25 (50) (Fmr. Cong. Aide Dan Maffei (D) or Atty Paloma Capanna (R) vs. Rep. Jim Walsh (D)): Walsh is already up on the air, a sign of nervousness. He has some reason to be; this is the most Dem seat held by a GOPer in NY and the '02 redistricting reduced the influence of Walsh's Syracuse-area base in the district.
48. West Virginia 02 (49) (Fmr. WV Dem Chair Mike Callaghan (D) vs. Rep. Shelley Capito (R)): Callaghan is unquestionably the strongest Dem; his emergence from the primary is good news.
Tweeners
49. Florida 16 (51) (Rancher Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Rep. Mark Foley (R))
50. Minnesota 01 (42) (Teacher/Vet Tim Walz (D) vs. Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R))
51. Nebraska 01 (43) (Fmr. NE Lt. Gov. Maxine Moul (D) vs. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R))
52. Minnesota 02 (46) (Fmr. FBI Agent Colleen Rowley (D) vs. Rep. John Kline (R))
53. California 04 (60) (Vet Charles Brown (D) vs. Rep. John Doolittle (R)): Doolittle just managed 2/3 of the vote in his primary. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the scandal plagued incumbent.
54. New York 26 (55) (Bus.'04 Nom. Jack Davis (D) vs. Rep. Tom Reynolds (R))
Third Tier
55. Montana at Large (54) (State Rep. Monica Lindeen (D) vs. Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R))
56. Florida 08 (56) (Bus. Charles Stuart (D) vs. Rep. Ric Keller (R))
57. Iowa 02 (57) (Prof. David Loebsack (D) vs. Rep. Jim Leach (R))
58. Colorado 06 (68) (Vet Bill Winter (D) vs. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R))
59. Pennsylvania 04 (59) (Fmr. Hospital Exec. Jason Altmire (D) vs. Rep. Melissa Hart (R))
60. Illinois 11 (53) (Fmr. CIA Agent John Pavich (D) vs. Rep. Jerry Weller (R))
61. Idaho 01 (nr) (Bus. Larry Grant (D) vs. State Rep. Bill Sali (R))
62. Virginia 10 (58) (College Dean Judy Feder (D) vs. Rep. Frank Wolf (R))
63. Kansas 02 (61) (Pharma Researcher'04 Nom. Nancy Boyda (D) vs. Rep. Jim Ryun (R))
64. Michigan 08 (62) (Fmr. CIA Agent Jim Marcinkowski (D) vs. Rep. Mike Rogers (R))
65. New Jersey 05 (nr) (Fmr. Gov. McGreevey aide Paul Aronsohn (D) vs. Rep. Scott Garrett (R))
66. Indiana 03 (63) (Ft. Wayne Councilman Tom Hayhurst (D) vs. Rep. Mark Souder (R))
67. California 26 (64) (Consult.'04 Nom. Cynthia Matthews (D) vs. Rep. David Dreier (R))
68. Virginia 05 (65) (Farmer Al Weed (D) vs. Rep. Virgil Goode (R))
69. Florida 24 (66) (Veterinarian Andy Michaud (D) vs. Rep. Tom Feeney (R))
70. Michigan 09 (67) (Radio Host Nancy Skinner (D) vs. Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) or Fmr. State Rep. Pan Godchaux (R))
Dem Seats
First Tier
1. Illinois 08 (1) (Rep. Melissa Bean (D) vs. Banker David McSweeney (R)): Bean remains the most endangered Dem--a fact that makes ideologues on both the left and right happy.
2. Louisiana 03 (3) (Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) vs. State Sen. Craig Romero (R)): Demographics are Melancon's biggest hurdle: how many of his supporters left after Kattrina not to return?
3. Ohio 06 (2) (State Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) vs. OH House Pres. Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel (R)): Wilson looks to have the upper hand after an impressive primary victory.
4. Iowa 03 (4) (Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) vs. IA State Sen. Pres. Jeff Lamberti): Boswell has begun to engage Lamberti. All things being equal, he should pull out a narrow win.
5. Georgia 08 (5) (Rep. Jim Marshall (D) vs. Fmr. Rep. Mac Collins (R)): This one remains tight, but Marshall looks popular. Remember, however, the district is similar to the one Marshall lost to now Sen. Saxby Chambliss 59-41 in 2000.
6. Texas 17 (6) (Rep. Chet Edwards (D) vs. Vet Van Taylor (R)): Edwards continues to look strong even if he has a ceiling of 53% in the district.
7. Georgia 12 (7) (Rep. John Barrow (D) vs. Fmr. Rep. Max Burns (R)): Barrow still looks like a slight favorite despite the new map. The biggest danger for him would have been a race-focused primary with a black Dem that didn't materialize.
Second Tier
8. West Virginia 01 (8) (Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) vs. State Del. Chris Wakim (R)): The GOP continues to pump up Wakim. How much that is because Wakim actually has a shot and how much that is because they have a dearth of other more promising challengers remains to be seen.
9. Vermont at Large (12) (VT State Sen. Pres. Peter Welch (D) vs. VT Adj. Gen. Martha Rainville (R) or Mark State Sen. Shepard (R)): Rainville continues to struggle to distance herself from national GOPers. Shepard appears to be a non-factor.
10. Illinois 17 (13) (Cong. Aide Phil Hare (D) vs. Fmr. TV News Anchor'04 Nom. Andrea Zinga (R)): Hare is a machine candidate and probably the weakest Dem option. That said, Zinga isn't particularly strong and this district seems to pick up all of the Dem strongholds in downstate Illinois (other than those around East St. Louis which make up IL-12).
11. South Carolina 05 (9) (Rep. John Spratt (D) vs. State Rep. Ralph Norman (R)): Spratt has looked solid in his first strong challenge in years thus far.
12. Colorado 03 (10) (Rep. John Salazar (D) vs. Bus. Scott Tipton (R)): At this point, this is the 3d if not 4th closest House race in CO (after the 7th, 4th, and maybe the 6th).
13. Utah 02 (11) (Rep. Jim Matheson vs. LaVar Christensen): Matheson is breathing a bit easier for the first time since he was first elected to Congress in 1998.
Tweeners
14. Ohio 13 (14) (Fmr. State Rep. Betty Sutton (D) vs. Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin (R)): Sutton looks to be comfortably ahead in this Dem-leaning open seat.
Third Tier
15. Kansas 03 (15) (Rep. Dennis Moore (D) vs. State Rep. Scott Schwab (R) or Banker/Vet Chuck Ahner (R))
16. Washington 02 (16) (Rep. Rick Larsen (D) vs. Bus. Doug Roulstone (R))
17. Hawaii 02 (18) (open seat with multicandidate primaries)
18. Louisiana 02 (nr) (Rep. William Jefferson (D) vs. Atty Joe Lavigne (R)): When you get caught with $90,000 of apparent bribe money in your freezer, you become vulnerable even in the most Dem of districts.
19. Maryland 03 (19) (open seat with multicandidate primaries)
20. North Carolina 13 (20) (Rep. Brad Miller vs. Fmr. Winston-Salem Councilman Vernon Robinson)
21. Minnesota 08 (nr) (Rep. Jim Oberstar (D) vs. Fmr. Sen. Rod Grams (R)): Grams' entry makes this swing seat merit a look, but Oberstar is entrenched and popular.
22. Oregon 01 (21) (Rep. David Wu (D) vs. State Rep. Derrick Kitts (R))
23. Arkansas 02 (17) (Rep. Vic Snyder (D) vs. Fmr. AR Econ. Dev. Official Andy Mayberry (R))
24. Pennsylvania 13 (23) (Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D) vs. "Apprentice" Contestant Raj Bhakta (R))