Yesterday, I updated my own rankings, which can be found here:
http://www.dailykos.com/.... Last month I also began keeping track of what the professionals are saying. In that category, I consider the National Journal's Chuck Todd, the Cook Report's Amy Walter, Roll Call's Stu Rothenberg, Larry Sabato of Sabato's Crystal Ball, Congressional Quarterly, and the WaPo's Chris Cilizza. Last month's composite did not include Rothenberg/Roll Call because I did not have access at that time; this month's update does not include Sabato because he hasn't updated since February, and that's just too long for my tastes. In these lists, I do not include my own rankings.
Of the handicappers, the Cook Report, CQ, and Roll Call use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), while the National Journal and Cilizza rank the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric. For Todd and Cilizza, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 50 list gets 50 points, #50 gets 1). FWIW, Todd produces a top 50 list, while Cilizza's is only top-20. For the three rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean races, and 15 points for likely races. I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points. Last month's rankings and totals are in parentheses.
GOP Seats
Tossups (160+)
1t. Colorado 07 (204) (1-205) (OPEN: Perlmutter/Lamm/Rubinstein (D) vs. Rick O'Donnell (R))
1t. Iowa 01 (204) (2-202) (OPEN: Bruce Braley (D) vs. Mike Whalen (R))
3. Ohio 18 (200) (3-199) (Zack Space (D) vs. Bob Ney* (R))
4. Pennsylvania 06 (198) (4-197) (Lois Murphy (D) vs. Jim Gerlach* (R))
5. Indiana 09 (192) (5-191) (Baron Hill (D) vs. Mike Sodrel* (R))
6. Indiana 08 (184) (6-184) (Brad Ellsworth (R) vs. Jon Hostettler* (R))
7t. Arizona 08 (180) (7-183) (OPEN: Giffords/Weiss (D) vs. Huffman/Hellon/Graf (R))
7t. Connecticut 02 (180) (10-159) (Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rob Simmons* (R))
9. New Mexico 01 (176) (8-176) (Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Heather Wilson* (R))
10. Florida 22 (164) (11-147) (Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw* (R))
Tweeners (150-159)
11. Kentucky 04 (154) (12-138) (Ken Lucas (D) vs. Geoff Davis* (R))
12.Connecticut 04 (151) (13t-133) (Diane Farrell (D) vs. Chris Shays* (R))
Lean Rep (95-149)
13. New York 24 (138) (9-163) (OPEN: Mike Arcuri (D) vs. Ray Meier (R))
14t. North Carolina 11 (131) (15-125) (Heath Shuler (D) vs. Charles Taylor (R))
14t.Texas 22 (131) (13t-133) (Nick Lampson (D) vs. TBD (R) vs. Steve Stockman (I))
16. Ohio 15 (126) (21-107) (Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Deborah Pryce (R))
17. Minnesota 06 (126) (16-121) (OPEN: Patty Wetterling (D) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R))
18. Illinois 06 (119) (17-119) (OPEN: Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R))
19. Pennsylvania 08 (112) (19-112) (Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick* (R))
20. Pennsylvania 07 (110) (34-53) (Joe Sestak (D) vs. Curt Weldon* (R))
21. Virginia 02 (109) (28-66) (Phil Kellam (D) vs. Thelma Drake* (R))
22. Pennsylvania 10 (108) (35-50) (Chris Carney (D) vs. Don Sherwood* (R))
23. Wisconsin 08 (105) (22-105) (OPEN: Nusbaum/Kagen/Wall (D) vs. John Gard (R))
24. Ohio 01 (104) (23-88) (John Cranley (D) vs. Steve Chabot* (R))
25. Indiana 02 (97) (25-79) (Joe Donnelley (D) vs. Chris Chocola* (R))
26. Washington 08 (96) (24-80) (Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichert* (R))
Tweeners (85-94)
27. Arizona 05 (94) (20-108) (Harry Mitchell* (D) vs. J.D. Hayworth (R))
28. Connecticut 05 (90) (31-59) (Chris Murphy (D) vs. Nancy Johnson* (R))
29. New York 20 (85) (26-72) (Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. John Sweeney* (R))
Likely Rep (35-84)
30. California 50 (78@) (18-117) (Francine Busby (D) vs. Brian Bilbray* (R)) @-Some of these ratings predated the special election
31. California 11 (68) (29-62) (Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Richard Pombo* (R))
32. New Jersey 07 (63) (40t-30) (Linda Stender (D) vs. Mike Ferguson* (R))
33. New Hampshire 02 (62) (40t-30) (Paul Hodes (D) vs. Charles Bass* (R))
34. Nevada 03 (61) (40t-30) (Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Jon Porter* (R))
35t. Kentucky 03 (60) (38-36) (John Yarmuth (D) vs. Anne Northup* (R))
35t. New York 29 (60) (30-60) (Eric Massa (D) vs. Randy Kuhl* (R))
37. Colorado 04 (58) (32-57) (Angie Paccione (D) vs. Marilyn Musgrave* (R))
38. Nevada 02 (56) (33-55) (OPEN: Jill Derby (D) vs. Heller/Gibbons/Angle (R))
39. Florida 13 (54) (27-68) (OPEN: Jennings/Schneider (D) vs. Buchanan/Hudson/Detert/Flanagan (R))
40. New Hampshire 01 (50) (48-16) (Craig/Dodds/Shea-Porter/Sullivan (D) vs. Jeb Bradley* (R))
41t. Florida 08 (46) (40t-30) (Charlie Stuart (D) vs. Ric Keller* (R))
41t. Florida 09 (46) (40t-30) (OPEN: Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R))
41t. Minnesota 01 (46) (49t-15) (Tim Walz (D) vs. Gil Gutknecht* (R))
44t. Iowa 02 (45) (49t-15) (Dave Loebsack (D) vs. Jim Leach* (R))
44t.Kentucky 02 (45) (36t-45) (Mike Weaver (D) vs. Ron Lewis* (R))
44t. New York 19 (45) (39-32) (Hall/Aydelott/Shuldiner (D) vs. Sue Kelly* (R))
47. Florida 16 (42) (56-11) (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Mark Foley* (R))
48. New York 25 (36) (47-18) (Maffei/Capanna (D) vs. Jim Walsh* (R))
Tweeners (25-34)
49t.Minnesota 02 (30) (36t-45) (Colleen Rowley (D) vs. John Kline* (R))
49t. Wyoming at Large (30) (49t-15) (Gary Trauner (D) vs. Barbara Cubin* (R))
Other races that at least one of the handicappers listed
51. North Carolina 08 (19) (49t-15) (Larry Kissell (D) vs. Robin Hayes* (R))
52. Pennsylvania 04 (16) (40t-30) (Jason Altmire (D) vs. Melissa Hart* (R))
53t. California 04 (15) (49t-15) (Charlie Brown (D) vs. John Doolittle* (R))
53t. Idaho 01 (15) (nr-0) (OPEN: Larry Grant (D) vs. Bill Sali (R))
53t. Illinois 10 (15) (nr-0) (Dan Seals (D) vs. Mark Kirk* (R))
53t. Illinois 11 (15) (nr-0) (John Pavich (D) vs. Jerry Weller* (R))
53t. Louisiana 07 (15) (40t-30) (nobody yet (D) vs. Charles Boustany* (R))
53t. New Jersey 05 (15) (nr-0) (Paul Aronsohn (D) vs. Scott Garrett* (R))
53t. West Virginia 02 (15) (49t-15) (Mike Callaghan (D) vs. Shelley Capito* (R))
Dem Seats
Tossups (160+)
1. Ohio 06 (174) (1-194) (OPEN: Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R))
Tweeners (150-159)
None
Lean Dem (95-149)
2. Iowa 03 (138) (3-131) (Leonard Boswell* (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R))
3. Illinois 08 (133) (2-157)(Melissa Bean* (D) vs. David McSweeney (R))
4. Georgia 08 (123) (4-124) (Jim Marshall* (D) vs. Mac Collins (R))
5. Georgia 12 (121) (5-123) (John Barrow* (D) vs. Max Burns (R))
6. Texas 17 (107) (7-110) (Chet Edwards* (D) vs. Van Taylor (R))
7. Louisiana 03 (106) (6-120) (Charlie Melancon* (D) vs. Craig Romero (R))
8. West Virginia 01 (101) (11-72) (Alan Mollohan* (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R))
9. Vermont at Large (100) (9-87) (OPEN: Peter Welch (D) vs. Rainville/Shepard (R))
10. South Carolina 05 (95) (10-79) (John Spratt* (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R))
Tweeners (85-94)
None
Likely Dem (35-84)
11t. Colorado 03 (60) (8-90) (John Salazar* (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R))
11t. Illinois 17 (60) (12-67) (OPEN: Phil Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R))
11t. Ohio 13 (60) (13t-45) (OPEN: Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R))
14t. Kansas 03 (45) (15t-30) (Dennis Moore* (D) vs. Schwab/Ahner (R))
14t. North Dakota at Large (45) (15t-30) (Earl Pomeroy* (D) vs. Matt Mechtel (R))
14t. Oregon 05 (45) (15t-30) (Darlene Hooley* (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R))
14t. Utah 02 (45) (15t-30) (Jim Matheson* (D) vs. LaVar Christensen (R))
14t. Washington 02 (45) (13t-45) (Rick Larsen* (D) vs. Doug Roulstone (R))
Tweeners (25-34)
19. South Dakota at Large (30) (15t-30) (Stephanie Herseth* (D) vs. Bruce Whalen (R))
Other races listed by one or more handicappers
20t. Indiana 07 (15) (20t-15) (Julia Carson* (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R))
20t. Louisiana 02 (15) (20t-15) (William Jefferson* (D) vs. Joe Lavigne (R))
20t. Maryland 03 (15) (20t-15) (OPEN: Sarbanes/Hollinger/Beilenson/Bengur (D) vs. Applebaum/Hoover/White (R))
20t. New York 27 (15) (20t-15) (Brian Higgins* (D) vs. Michael McHale (R))
20t. Tennessee 04 (15) (20t-15) (Lincoln Davis* (D) vs. Alan Pedigo (R))