The Mexican presidential election took
an intriguing turn Thursday:
Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador edged further ahead on Thursday in Mexico's tight presidential race, and investors' fears that he may damage the economy eased when the government said it was paying $7 billion in debt early.
Three out of four new opinion polls showed Lopez Obrador, the former mayor of Mexico City, leading conservative rival Felipe Calderon before the July 2 election.
If you're Vincente Fox's therapist, you might wonder: why this? Why now?
Why repay $7 billion in debt before it's due, just to strengthen your economy, 9 days before an election in which your own party's candidate uses fear of economic destabilization as a means of damaging his opponent?
Some
background:
Presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is often compared with South American leftists, has found a model in an icon from the north: Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
López Obrador's economics team has developed a blueprint for what they call the "Mexican New Deal." Their modern version of Depression-era populism is an ambitious program to create millions of jobs and stem migration by undertaking huge public works projects, including a railroad network, vast housing developments, ports and timber replanting.
...
López Obrador's campaign team draws parallels between the Roosevelt-era United States, with its high unemployment and foundering economy, and present-day Mexico, which Perez Gay says is "swimming in a sea of inequality."
"If it wasn't for Roosevelt there would have been great social unrest in the U.S. We have the same situation here," Camacho said.
But, just as with Roosevelt, opponents predictably label Lopez Obrador as a "leftist" who'll ruin Mexico's economy, another Chavez.
Which brings us back to President Fox's explanation for paying off $7 billion in debt early:
"We have done everything possible to shield our economy from any risk. That allows us to guarantee that the electoral process and the handover of power can be carried out under the most favorable conditions."
Seems to me that "stablizing the economy" helps Lopez Obrador. If the Mexican economy is now stronger, which Wall Street agrees it is, the fear of a Lopez Obrador presidency's damaging the economy doesn't carry as much weight.
Or, even more interestingly: Fox could just have tipped his hand that he thinks Lopez Obrador will win; he doesn't need any help.
In that light, paying off the debt early and cleaning up Mexico's financial house could be seen as Fox's giving Lopez Obrador more freedom of action to pursue his policies.
Which would be a very statesman-like thing to do.
Imagine that: a sitting president who seeks to "guarantee that the electoral process and the handover of power can be carried out under the most favorable conditions" free from charges of doom and destruction and a presidential candidate likely to win who's inspired by--instead of seeking to undo the legacy of--FDR.