First off, let's give props to Superribbie, who does a SUPERB job on tracking House races. One can only imagine all the work required to actually read through the punditry and figure out their own rankings, which turn out to be pretty accurate. Superribbie's diary is linked below, and I recommend all DKos users to take a look at the wonderful work he did in projecting how the lower chamber of the 110th Congress will shake out.
http://www.dailykos.com/...
I was inspired to give my own prognostications on the House and Senate based on this diary, and they're below the flap.
Note: This is an open thread for any House race that you wish to discuss. Opinions are welcome from any angle.
Here's my gut feeling right now on which House seats will DEFINITELY change hands:
1. CO-7 (Lamm or Perlmutter claims Bob Beauprez's old seat by besting Rick O'Donnell)
2. CT-2 (Courtney beats Simmons in a highly Dem district)
3. CT-4 (Farrell beats Shays because voters there are tired of Shay's constant equivocating)
4. FL-22 (Klein beats Clay Shaw due to Medicare Part D)
5. IA-1 (Braley beats Whalen for Jim Nussle's old seat)
6. MN-6 (Wetterling beats Bachmann because Bachmann's a weaker candidate, despite the district's slight Republican lean)
7. NM-1 (Madrid beats Wilson in an area trending Dem)
8. NY-24 (Arcuri takes Sherry Boehler's old seat due to coattails from Hillary and Spitzer)
9. NY-29 (Massa puts Kuhl on the unemployment line for the same reason; Hil and Spitzer are incredibly popular here in NY)
10. PA-6 (Lois Murphy takes out Gerlach, a weak incumbent)
11. PA-8 (Patrick Murphy beats Fitzpatrick in a PA anti-incumbent wave)
12. PA-10 (Carney beats a massively unpopular Don Sherwood, who has the lowest reelect numbers of any House incumbent at 21%)
13. WA-8 (Darcy gets it done over Reichert, and those votes will also help Cantwell stave off McGavick upticket)
Those are my thirteen most definite Dem pickups. Write me back in November with criticism or praise...only God (if you believe in God) knows what actually will happen. That being said, we'll need a few more to cement a majority, and here are some other possibilities:
AZ-8: Jim Kolbe's open seat is a total tossup between Randy Graf and Democrat Gabrielle Giffords. Giffords needs Pederson upticket to get his freaking self in gear for this to be a Dem pickup. Gov. Janet Napolitano would be well served to lend Giffords unlimited support.
CA-11: Not as extreme as the 50th, anti-war Republican Pete McCloskey held incumbent Richard Pombo to 62% of the Republican primary vote. A staunch environmental opponent, Pombo faces Jerry McNerney, one of the netroots guys. McNerney beat the establishment candidate, Jerry Filson, and is running neck-and-neck with Pombo.
CO-4: Marilyn Musgrave is a weak incumbent. In 2004, this R-leaning district went for Bush by 17%, but Musgrave only pulled 51% against a terrible opponent. Angie Paccione is a take-no-crap woman who played college basketball at Stanford and can fight with the best of them. Musgrave is in trouble here, and this is one I considered putting up top.
IL-6: Henry Hyde finally goes into retirement. The slightly-Republican leaning Chicagoland district will determine whether Iraq war hero Tammy Duckworth is up to the task. Some folks were angered when DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel selected Duckworth over Christine Cegelis, but a Dem victory will require Cegelis backers to hold their nose and vote for Duckworth over Republican Pete Roskam.
IL-10: Superribbie argues that Mark Kirk is a very strong incumbent. He may be strong politically, but this district has a D+4 PVI and Kirk faces a very difficult race to retain his seat. Daniel Seals will try to convince the people of North Chicago that he's the best man to represent them.
IN-8: Hostettler could be in serious trouble if he gets outfundraised this time; Brad Ellsworth is one of the better opponents Hostettler has faced and despite the district's R-lean, the "Bloody Eighth" has a history of removing incumbents in midterm elections.
IN-9: Mike Sodrel won this district in 2004 by an incredibly narrow margin against Dem incumbent Baron Hill. Hill's not taking the defeat lying down and will run to unseat Sodrel this November. I considered putting this seat on the top list but the R+7 and Sodrel's large warchest (better than Hostettler in IN-8) puts it here.
KY-4: Former Dem congressman Ken Lucas comes out of retirement to challenge incumbent Geoff Davis. In a very conservative district, Lucas is perhaps the only Dem who can win here, and this race will be a tight one.
MN-1: Gil Gutknecht, an outspoken supporter of the Bush administration, battles Fighting Dem Tim Walz. Walz must pick up the fundraising to put up a strong challenge to Gutknecht, who has an enormous warchest.
NC-11: Charles Taylor looks to be in trouble against former Vols star QB Heath Shuler. Although Shuler is pro-life, it may actually help him in this conservative district. Look for a fierce and lively race in the foothills of Western NC this fall.
NH-2: Just go over to Swing State Project, they cover this race all the time. Paul Hodes got bombed by incumbent Charles Bass 58-38 in 2004, but Hodes is back with a vengeance and in a state rapidly turning Dem, the state GOP's coffers are very light. Hodes trails Bass by only seven in the last UNH poll.
NY-20: Although John Sweeney's people put out a poll which showed him dominating Dem challenger Kirsten Gillibrand, any NY race is a difficult hold for the R's because Bush's name is mud in the Empire State. Gillibrand, a terrific speaker and intelligent debater, will make life very hard for the leader of the infamous "Miami Mob" of 2000.
NV-3: The NRCC admitted that Jon Porter is vulnerable in this suburban Las Vegas district. The DCCC placed this on their 22-seat hitlist, and Tessa Hafen looks to be a strong candidate in a district trending Dem. Porter has also drawn the ire of Dem Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, so this race will get very interesting.
OH-1: Does Ohio have the same anti-incumbent tendencies as PA? We'll find out with Pryor and Ney below and Steve Chabot, the congressman out of this district. Chabot faces John Cranley in what is essentially a swing district comprising the western Cincy suburbs.
OH-15: Deborah Pryce made a significant gaffe on her campaign commercial where she misspelled her name. This suburban Columbus swing district will decide if spelling is a necessary requirement for public service when Pryce squares off against Mary Jo Kilroy.
OH-18: A Ney indictment moves this up to the top category. I can't move it up yet because Zack Space needs to prove he's a top-tier candidate.
PA-7: This campaign looks to be one of the nastiest this cycle, as Crazy Curt Weldon battles Admiral Joe Sestak. Weldon made a wild assertion about Sestak's ill daughter's hospital care (in DC instead of Philly) that may cost him plenty of votes. Of the three districts polled in the May 16 Democracy Corps poll (OH-1, NJ-7 and this one), PA-7 looks to have the most negative conditions for the incumbent.
VA-2: Encompassing Virginia Beach and the southern Delmarva, this veteran-heavy district decides whether Thelma Drake is worthy of another two years when she faces Phil Kellam. Kellam has major crossover appeal in the VA Beach area. A strong Jim Webb campaign upticket can produce a pickup here, but Kellam could potentially win without Webb's coattails.
Other possibilities, where I feel we have a puncher's chance:
AZ-5: Harry Mitchell will require a strong response to JD Hayworth's anti-immigration campaign to give himself a chance at the seat.
CA-4: John Doolittle is mired in scandal, but can Charlie Brown (an apple-pie American name if there ever was one) kick the ball through the goalposts and boot Doolittle out of office in this R-leaning district?
CO-5: With Joel Hefley's retirement, plenty of Republicans have entered the primary in an effort to claim the seat. The only thing they're underestimating is the strength of Fighting Dem Jay Fawcett. A USAFA grad, Fawcett can win Air Force votes (CO-5 is the home of the USAFA). The Republicans will think this seat is a given, but Fawcett's credentials are quite impressive.
CO-6: Tom Tancredo wants to run for higher office someday, but he'll have to defend his seat first against Fighting Dem Bill Winter. Although Tancredo is a right wing nut, Winter is facing an uphill battle in the suburban Denver district that went 60% for Bush in 2004. Winter's beaten the odds before in his personal life, and he'll use that inspiration to give Tancredo a run for his money.
FL-9: Mike Bilirakis is retiring, and he thinks primogeniture, a feudal practice, applies for the residents of this suburban-exurban Tampa district. His son Gus will face Phyllis Busansky and the slight R-lean to the district may allow primogeniture to prevail. Busansky can win, but will need a lot of Bill Nelson Democrats (conservative) to pull the lever for her.
FL-13: Katherine Harris left this seat to get crushed by Bill Nelson, and this R-leaning district has nasty primary fights on both sides.
ID-1: Bill Sali is so extreme that one prominent Idaho Republican called him an idiot more than once. His Democratic opponent, Larry Grant, needs lots of Republicans who think likewise to vote for him. This district voted 68% for Bush in '04.
IL-14: I'm putting this one up not because it's Dennis Hastert's seat, but because John Laesch is so damned IMPRESSIVE as a candidate. He is my favorite Dem candidate in the entire cycle, House or Senate. Laesch posts regularly here and is willing to listen to all opinions. When he formulates his own, they're an incredibly strong mix of his personal beliefs and the best ideas from others. The other Dem House challengers need to take a few notes from Laesch; he's showing everyone how it's done.
IN-2: Chris "Count" Chocola was never the most popular congressman in this South Bend district. Joe Donnelly, the Dem challenger, will need a very heavy union vote to unseat Chocola.
KS-2: Although "Bloody" Kansas can be very red at times, Dem governor Kathleen Sebelius is INCREDIBLY popular. Incumbent Jim Ryun pulled only 56% of the vote, and Nancy Boyda is back to challenge Ryun in a state where the Republicans are experiencing a massive wave of defections. Ryun is more vulnerable than a lot of people realize.
KY-3: Dems have targeted Anne Northup for years, but have found their efforts to unseat her wrought with failure. Newspaper publisher John Yarmuth will need a strong turnout in the Louisville area to unseat Northup, who has proven to be a very tough campaigner.
NH-1: Of the 2 Granite State House seats, this one is more difficult for the Democrats. Incumbent Jeb Bradley will still have to face a Democratic tide in a state where "Live Free or Die" is encroached upon by the NSA privacy scandal. Jim Craig is the most likely challenger for Bradley.
NJ-7: Is there a Dump Mike Ferguson feeling out there? Linda Stender, the Democrat challenger, must have read the May 16 Democracy Corps poll with a smile on her face. NJ-7 can switch hands, but Stender will need to run a very tough campaign in this district that stretches from Union County in the east to the PA border.
TX-22: Who will replace the despicable Tom Delay for the Republicans? Right now, Delay's name is actually on the ballot, even though he could be running from a prison cell in the fall. Can the Republicans get another candidate on the ballot to challenge Nick Lampson, who has raised a boatload of cash? I considered moving this up a level or two, but the R+15 PVI prevented me from doing so.
WI-8: Incumbent Mark Green vacated this seat to run for Governor, and a large scrum has ensued in Cheesehead country. The most likely Democrat candidate, Nancy Nusbaum, is running neck and neck with the most likely Republican candidate, John Gard.
WY-AL: Bush carried Wyoming with 69% of the vote, but Barbara Cubin doesn't have that kind of strength. Gary Trauner polls four points behind Cubin in a recent Rasmussen poll, and that is incredibly troubling for Cubin. Wyoming's Dem governor Dave Freudenthal is one of the most popular state executives in the country, and he can provide Trauner some coattails.
If there are seats I've forgotten, please post them here. Kossacks, let's have at it and play some horserace politics.