The following is a quick reference scoreboard for where the various Senate races stand. I list the polls used and the date. Where there are multiple polls within a reasonable time period, I average them to produce a result. I list the races in order of the spread, with the challenger party's best showings at the top. If any knows of polls that I missed (other than Zogby internet polls), I'd love to hear about them and I'll edit.
Remember, elected incumbents up by single digits with their totals under 50% are in big trouble.
GOP Seats
1. Pennsylvania (D +13) (Rasmussen 6/19, Strategic Vision (R) 6/11, Greenberg Quinlan (D) 5/25): Bob Casey (D) 52, Rick Santorum* (R) 39.
2. Montana (D +3) (Mason-Dixon 5/24, Rasmussen 5/11): Jon Tester (D) 46, Conrad Burns* (R) 43.
3. Missouri (D +2) (St. Louis Post-Dispatch 6/20, Rasmussen 5/8): Claire McCaskill (D) 45, Jim Talent* (R) 43.
4. Rhode Island (R +2 with Chafee as the R nominee; D +32 with Laffey as the R nominee) (Brown U 6/21, Rasmussen 6/5, National Research 5/24): Lincoln Chafee* (R) 40, Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 38; Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 57, Stephen Laffey (R) 25; Chafee 39, Laffey 38.
5. Ohio (R +2) (Rasmussen 6/10, SurveyUSA 6/10, Ohio Poll 5/21): Mike DeWine* (R) 45, Sherrod Brown (D) 43.
6. Tennessee (R +5 if Corker or Hilleary is the R nominee, R +4 if Bryant is) (Zogby (not internet) 6/12, Rasmussen 5/1): Van Hilleary (R) 45, Harold Ford (D) 40; Bob Corker (R) 45, Ford 40; Ed Bryant (R) 43, Ford 39 (no polls on R primary).
7. Virginia (R +10) (Rasmussen 6/14): George Felix Allen, Jr.* (R) 51, Jim Webb (D) 41.
8. Arizona (R +15) (Arizona State Univ. 6/21, SurveyUSA 5/10, Rasmusssen 5/8): Jon Kyl* (R) 49, Jim Pederson 34.
9. Texas (R +19) (Rasmussen 6/3): Kay Bailey Hutchison* (R) 53, Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) 34.
10. Nevada (R +20) (Research 2000 5/15): John Ensign* (R) 52, Jack Carter (D) 32.
11. Maine (R +40) (Rasmussen 6/3): Olympia Snowe* (R) 66, Jean Hay Bright (D) 26.
There are no polls on the races in Mississippi, Utah, or Wyoming, all of which should be safe for the Repub incumbents. Lugar of Indiana is running unopposed.
Dem Seats
1. Washington (D +4) (Rasmussen 6/13): Maria Cantwell* (D) 44, Mike McGavick (R) 40.
2. Minnesota (D +6) (Greenberg Quinlan (D) 4/26, Rasmussen 2/20): Amy Klobuchar (D) 48, Mark Kennedy (R) 42.
3. New Jersey (D +6) (Rasmussen 6/21, Rutgers U 6/20, Quinippiac 6/13): Bob Menendez* (D) 44, Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 38.
4. Maryland (D +10 if Cardin is the D nominee, D +4 if Mfume is) (Rasmussen 4/18): Ben Cardin (D) 45, Michael Steele (R) 35; Kweisi Mfume (D) 42, Steele 38.
5. Michigan (D +14) (EPIC/MRA 6/12): Debbie Stabenow* (D) 48, Jim Bouchard (R) 34.
6. Nebraska (D +19) (Rasmussen 5/10): Ben Nelson* (D) 54, Pete Ricketts (R) 35.
7. West Virginia (D +23) (Rasmussen 4/25): Robert Byrd* (D) 57, John Raese (R) 34.
8. California (D +27) (Field 5/31, LA Times 5/25): Dianne Feinstein* (D) 56, Dick Mountjoy (R) 29.
9. Florida (D +28) (Strategic Vision (R) 5/21, Rasmussen 5/15): Bill Nelson* (D) 58, Katherine Harris (R) 30.
10. New York (D +30 if McFarland is the R nominee, D +31 if Spencer is) (Newsday 6/5, Marist 5/7, Manhattanville College 4/23): Hillary Clinton* (D) 61, Kathleen McFarland 31; Clinton 60, John Spencer (R) 29.
11. Wisconsin (D +32) (Strategic Vision (R) 3/5): Herb Kohl* (D) 59, James Lorge (R) 27.
12. Vermont (I(D) +38 if Tarrant is the R nominee, I(D) +44 if Parke is the R nominee) (Rasmussen 5/9): Bernie Sanders (I) 67, Rich Tarrant (R) 29; Sanders 72, Greg Parke (R) 28. (Note: If elected, Sanders will caucus with--and vote as--the Dems)
13. Connecticut (D +46 if Lieberman is the D nominee, D +17 if Lamont is the D nominee) (Rasmussen 6/12, Quinippiac 6/5): Joe Lieberman* (D) 64, Alan Schlesinger (R) 19; Ned Lamont (D) 37, Schlesinger 20; Lieberman 50, Lamont 40.
There are no polls on the races in Massachusetts, Delaware, North Dakota, New Mexico, or Hawaii, but all are expected to easily stay in Democratic hands. Hawaii has a potentially close primary race between Sen. Daniel Akaka (D) and Rep. Ed Case (D).