Who will succeed President Bush's close friend and ally, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi?
Update [2006-7-11 1:16:0 by The 40oz Funk]:
Q: So Prime Minister Koizumi's term is almost over?
A: His term of office is not limited by the Constitution. However, it is limited by his party, the Liberal Democratic Party.
Koizumi has announced that he will step down from office sometime in 2006, per LDP rules, and will not personally choose a successor as many LDP prime ministers have in the past. This has led to widespread media speculation about who will be his successor, an issue popularly referred to as "post-Koizumi."
Q: What do you mean "he will not personally choose a successor"?
A: Japanese Prime Ministers are not chosen through a general election:
The Prime Minister is appointed by the Emperor of Japan after being designated by the Diet from among its members, and must enjoy the confidence of the House of Representatives to remain in office.
Q: So then who will his successor be?
A: Right now, the frontrunner seems to be Shinzo Abe:
Shinzo Abe and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda are considered (as of June 2006) leading candidates to replace Koizumi after the prime minister's term expires: Sadakazu Tanigaki and Taro Aso are also possible candidates. However, none have officially declared their candidacy.
In a June poll of 403 LDP lawmakers, Abe had the backing of 130, followed by Fukudawith 30. Former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, to whose faction both Abe and Fukuda belong, has stated that the faction strongly leans toward Abe.
Q: Why does he sound familiar?
A: He's been mentioned/quoted in Dkos three times in the past few years.
Q: Really, like what?
A: See rentogen's Bush plans for a North Korea "regime change"? from Dec 23, 2004:
North Korea's refusal to stop developing nuclear weapons has also prompted some outsiders like Shinzo Abe, secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, to express doubts about the effectiveness of dealing with Kim and suggest Japan be prepared for regime change.
Q: Has he said anything lately?
A: Yes, in fact Monday he commented on the current situation with North Korea's missile tests:
"If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack ... there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion," Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said.
Q: Wow. Does he have much experience dealing with the North Koreans?
A: Probably:
Abe was chief negotiator for the Japanese government on behalf of the families of Japanese abductees taken to North Korea.
Q: What else?
A: There's this:
Shinzo Abe, the current front runner, is a well-known hawk. "Abe is likely to push the constitutional debate [on Article 9]," says Mansanori Nishi, a senior official at the Japan Defense Agency's Technical Research and Development Institute. "He's regarded as a bit of a radical on constitutional issues."
Q: What's this Article 9?
A: Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan is a "No War" clause. It dates from 1947:
ARTICLE 9. Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
Q: Anything else?
A: Sure, from tomorrow's WaPo:
Japan renounced the right to maintain military forces and to settle international disputes by force. In past decades, it has built up a 240,000-member military on grounds that the constitution allows strict self-defense. Interpretation of the restrictions continues: The Japanese parliament has previously ruled that a preemptive strike on missiles about to be fired at Japan may fall under the definition of self-defense.
...
Echoing statements from Japanese Defense Minister Fukushiro Nukaga on Sunday, Abe told reporters: "If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack . . . there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense. We need to deepen discussion" of such an option.
However:
Later Monday, however, Koizumi expressed more caution, telling reporters that "I believe Japan must have deterrence capability, but in what form, we would have to listen carefully to experts' opinions since there can be various situations."
Q: Interesting.
A: Indeed.