As any viewer of C-Span's "Road to the White House," or, for that matter, anyone who visits DailyKos, can attest, the 2008 presidential race is gradually taking shape. I'd like to offer my take on the current state of the race. Let me emphasize that what follows is my current analysis of the race, not what I want to have happen.
Two notes: Gore & Obama have been excluded, since they appear unlikely to run, and all odds given have been adjusted to ensure they add to 100%.
Edwards (7:1):
* Acceptable to everyone, and he is out of office so he can put unlimited time and effort into the key early states. But is he the first choice of enough voters?
Dodd (10,000:1):
* Two words: "Waitress Sandwich." Need I say more?
Warner (15:1):
* A thin political résumé and no foreign policy experience, but he was popular when he left office as Governor, and he is incredibly rich. If he spends enough of his money he might have a chance.
Bayh (5:1):
* If he wins the Iowa caucuses, he's President of the United States. Can he do it? Maybe. Someone here once described Bayh as "Every 80 year old woman's idea of the perfect son-in-law," and if there is one thing Iowa has besides corn it's 80 year old women. He's slightly to the right of the base of the party, but if he can sell the idea that he's a winner that won't be a problem.
Feingold (25:1):
* He's taken a series of idiosyncratic positions that some find inspiring but others find infuriating. He was an early opponent of the Iraq war, but his opposition to the U.S. involvement in Kosovo & Bosnia as well make him easy to characterize as a pacifist opposed to all wars. His opposition to ag subsidies will hurt in Iowa.
Daschle (150:1):
* Yeah, I know that in 2004 his 49% in his Senate reelection race was 18 points ahead of the 31% received by the Kerry-Edwards ticket in South Dakota, but he's still a loser. If lightning strikes he might get VP, but even that's a long shot.
Vilsack (175:1):
* Not a serious player.
Kerry (20:1):
* Had his chance.
Kucinich (100,000:1):
* Maybe I should put Al Sharpton in at 1,000,000:1, too.
Clark (100:1)
* Much improved as a candidate by the end of his 2004 race, but he has never held elective office, and by 2008 it'll be nearly 10 years since he left the Army. He might get a cabinet slot.
Clinton (1:1):
* There is an old joke about executives at a dog food company meeting in the boardroom to discuss why its sales are weak. "I don't get it," said the CEO. "We use the best ingredients, have the most nutrition, the best packaging, the best advertising, we're in all the best stores, and we're competitively priced. So why isn't our product selling?" After a moment of silence, a voice from the back of the room said, "Dogs don't like it."
In this scenario, the "dogs" are the base of the party. Hillary's campaign has every advantage, but it is still running into much resistance within the party. She's still has a huge lead, but it isn't as insurmountable as it was six months ago.
Biden (100:1):
* The plagiarized speech from the 1987/88 campaign was permanently fatal to his presidential hopes.
Richardson (35:1):
* The best natural politician in the group, but he needs to get into shape physically. The logistics of running in Iowa and New Hampshire from a base in Santa Fe are also a problem.
I'll look at the GOP candidates later this week.