Last week at this time, I was pretty disillusioned about the Democrats' prospects in Minnesota's statewide offices. Attorney General candidate Matt Entenza was drowning in a sea of bad press and I feared his presence could sink DFL candidates in the Secretary of State and Auditor races as well. Much as I've enjoyed his tenure in the Minnesota House, I couldn't have been happier on Tuesday when Entenza withdrew his bid to run for Attorney General, paving the way for two considerably stronger candidates to enter the race......
I'm actually torn on whether I prefer State Senator Steve Kelley or former Congressman Bill Luther to be the DFL Attorney General nominee this fall. Both are great guys and both would bring name recognition and favorable election geography to the race against asshat Republican challenger Jeff Johnson. The plus side for Steve Kelley is that he cuts right into Johnson's base in the western suburbs of Hennepin County, and would dovetail nicely with the Senate candidacy of Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar. Kelley's potential downside would be his support of a new Minnesota Twins stadium in the Senate this year, which will undoubtedly stir a few grumbles from otherwise reliable Hennepin County Democrats.
As for Bill Luther, his plus side is a history of electoral success in the Republican-leaning suburbs north, south, AND east of Minneapolis-St. Paul, where he won four terms to the U.S. House between 1994 and 2000. I'm not familiar enough with Luther to opine on potential downsides of his candidacy, but I can't imagine a scenario where the DFL would lose the Attorney General's race if it was a contest between Bill Luther and Jeff Johnson. For that matter, Steve Kelley would be an easy frontrunner against Johnson as well. It'll be intriguing to see who Minnesotans choose in the November primary, provided both candidates remain in the race that long.
I used to like former Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman, who was also mulling a run, but I remember when Freeman actually endorsed Mike Hatch's Republican challenger in the 1998 Attorney General's race as part of some sort of complicated quid pro quo. Whatever the merits of that case, the was probably less love lost between Freeman and Hatch than there was between Hatch and Entenza. Not exactly a good candidate swap. Thankfully, Freeman decided not to run.
Mike Hatch's solicitor general Lori Swanson is also a declared candidate since Entenza's departure. I don't know much about her, but with only six or seven weeks until the primary, it seems very unlikely she'll wage a serious challenge for the nomination with heavy hitters like Kelley and Luther running.
How will new DFL momentum in the Attorney General's race impact other statewide races? For one thing, it could quell the "angry voter" syndrome that could prompt even higher numbers of third-party voters in these statewide races. In 2002, the Green Party cost Buck Humphrey the Secretary of State position and cost Carol Johnson the Auditor seat....and that's not even mentioning the even higher-polling Independence Party. Had Entenza's problems festered into the general election, they would have run the risk of pushing soft DFLers to continue inadvertantly electing Republicans by voting third or fourth party. This is still likely to be a huge problem in "independent-minded" Minnesota, particularly in these low-profile statewide offices, but hopefully a Kelley or Luther candidacy will stop the bleeding at least a little.
In the Secretary of State race, I'm not sure if Christian Sande is still running in the primary or if party-endorsed Mark Ritchie now has a lock on the nomination. Whoever wins will have to rely upon a heavy voter turnout and an anti-Republican backlash if they're gonna beat Kiffmeyer. Aside from the advantages of two terms of Kiffmeyer, the noxious Kiffmeyer hails from fast-growing central Minnesota and in both previous SoS runs, has pulled in stratospheric margins in the northwest exurbs and the rural regions in and around St. Cloud. Ritchie/Sande has alot to overcome with that arithmatic working against them (not to mention thousands of Minneapolis lefties who will undoubtedly vote Green once again). Possible, but odds-against.
The Auditor's race is a better prospect for the DFL in that they have a strong photogenic candidate in Rebecca Otto, who served one House term in a very conservative district in the eastern suburbs. The German surname of Otto is likely to yield at least some votes from otherwise conservative voters of German heritage, and her name recognition as a winning Democrat in Michele Bachmann country is a lethal combination. Beyond that, Republican incumbent Pat Anderson (Awada) is truly deplorable at every level, and if her previous abrasive rhetoric towards outstate Minnesota and its Local Government Aid outlays gets any attention at all, she'd be a sure loser. Unless the Greens and Independents help Anderson out as much as they did in 2002, I'm betting on Otto picking up this office for the DFL.
In the Legislature the prospects are good for the DFL in expanding their Senate majority and taking back the State House. It can be very hard to read these races and there are alot of vulnerable one-term DFL incumbents who snuck in in 2004 in unfriendly territory (Andy Welti, Denise Dittrich), but there are also some Republican-held open seats in blue-leaning or blue-trending districts (Minnetonka, Albert Lea).
In the State Senate, I'm very concerned about Majority Leader Dean Johnson. His conservative rural district in central Minnesota is getting more Republican every two years. Couple that with last year's government shutdown and Johnson's blunder regarding state Supreme Court justice comments and I'm very worried about his chances. The retirement of former Senate Majority Leader John Hottinger from his 50-50 district in the Mankato area could also be a problem, depending on the quality of candidates. Sheila Kiscaden's district in Rochester will be tough to hold too. The good news in the state Senate is that last year's DFL special election victories in Republican-held seats give the Dems some elbow room even if they do lose one or more of their vulnerable seats.
I'd be surprised if Republicans held the state House given the number of open seats their leaving compared to the DFL. If 2006 is a Democratic year at all, we'll win back the House with seats to spare.
Now for Minnesota Congressional races.....
District 1--Gil Gutknecht has the appearance of a man on the ropes with his flip-flops on free trade and, just this week, the war in Iraq. This was the district I grew up in and while Gutknecht has always managed to win here against token opposition, he's never had the kind of rock-star presence in the district that would help him overcome a serious challenge. Having seen Democratic candidate Tim Walz speak, I can attest to the fact that Dems at least have the potential to pose that serious challenge this year. His fundraising has been phenominal and most independent race analysts like Charlie Cook have even taken notice, placing Gutknecht's seat in mildly vulnerable terrain. Walz will need a strong debate performance and, most importantly, a blitz of well-crafted political ads seizing upon Gutknecht's vulnerabilities (like the fact that he promised us he wouldn't even be running for a seventh term this year) and projecting his own energetic style to voters, if he's gonna win. I would definitely give Gutknecht the advantage here because of knee-jerk incumbent favoring in House races, but this should be his toughest challenge at least since 1996
District 2--I'm not confident in Coleen Rowley having the political skills to unseat incumbent Republican John Kline in this district, which aside from 2004 Presidential election results, is the most Republican in Minnesota. I hate to be a pessimist here, but if Rowley comes within 10 points of Kline, I'd be shocked.
District 3--I haven't seen much of Democratic challenger Wendy Wilde, and sadly, I doubt too many MN-03 voters will get the chance to either as both parties will essentially coronate the popular Republican incumbent Jim Ramstad to another term.
District 4--Democrat Betty McCollum should be a cinch. I read her opponent is an Ethiopian immigrant. Perhaps that could cut into her support among St. Paul's large immigrant community, but I doubt it. I'm guessing she'll win at least 65%.
District 5--Wide open country here for Martin Sabo's open seat in Minneapolis. Endorsed DFL candidate Keith Ellison would be a great progressive legislator, but I fear that the onslaught of unfair nitpicky criticism regarding everything from his youthful association with Louis Farrakhan to his parking tickets could be an ugly distraction and possibly suppress DFL turnout in the desperately-needed MN-05. If nominated in the September primary, Ellison would have no problem beating token Republican Alan Fine in this 72% DFL district, but it'll be interesting to see if primary voters play it safe and go with either Mike Erlandson or Ember Reichgott Junge as their DFL emissary instead of Ellison.
District 6--Easily the DFL's best prospect for picking up a Congressional seat, MN-06 will still be far from a cakewalk. The trick will be to define uber-wingnut Republican Michele Bachmann before she is able to define herself. As conservative as MN-06 is, Bachmann ("workplace safety regulations are Marxist") is way too conservative even for them. Democrat Patty Wetterling is a semi-strong candidate who fared reasonably well against Mark Kennedy in 2004, but is not a natural politician and has the potential to stumble badly under the campaign spotlight. If Phil Krinkie or Jim Knoblach was the GOP nominee, they'd probably win....but with Bachmann, I'm cautiously optimistic that Patty can win.
District 7--Whoever the Republican that faces off against conservative Democrat Collin Peterson, he/she will lose by a 2-1 margin in this western Minnesota district.
District 8--Democrats were quick to laugh when discredited former Senator Rod Grams challenged institutionalized DFL incumbent Jim Oberstar in northeastern Minnesota, but Grams' candidacy was a masterstroke by the GOP to bolster Republican voter turnout in the increasingly Republican northern exurbs where Grams resides. Oberstar usually wins by 2-1 margins but with the high-profile Grams on the ballot (as opposed to say, Bob Lemen), I suspect Oberstar will be held to under 60% and support for Mark Kennedy in places like Isanti and Chisago Counties will be higher than it would've been if Grams wasn't on the ballot.
I appreciate any insights, opinions and advice on other Minnesota races to watch. I don't live in MN anymore, so I no longer have a front-row seat, but still find its state politics far more fascinating than those of my adopted home state.