There was a diary posted earlier by Mark27 on a similar topic. I wrote a very long comment explaining my take on it. I've decieded to go ahead and make a diary out of it, simply because Minnesota is my brainchild, if that's the word. I focus on it a lot and know a lot about it. First, before I even write this thing, I have to thank Mark27, because without his detailed first hand writing of the regions of Minnesota politics, and his reliable answering my questions about the state, I would not be able to write this diary.
First off, let me offer my endorsement in the Democratic Primary for AG. I greatly prefer Steve Kelly, a moderate Dem who represents a highly competitive suburban district. He is also a great Democrat for not going negative on Hatch, and abiding by the results of the party nomination, therefore avoiding another 11-12 weeks of primary infighting between the two. Kelly has the kind of stuff to win, and winning this race would allow him to go after future public office. That being said former Congressman Bill Luther is also a strong candidate. Kelly is lacking in money, but that will not matter since Republicans have already ceded the seat to Democrats. Their candidate is little known, underfunded Jeff Johnson.
In the highly competitive Governors race Incumbent Tim Pawlenty, an absolutely horrendous Governor who's slashed medicare and funding for Police Units, who even shut down the government some time ago, is up against Mike Hatch is all but certainly the Democratic nominee. Hatch has a long record of service, beginning with become the state Democratic Party Chairman in 1980. The party was reeling from 1978, when it lost two U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, the State House, and A Congressional Seat. The party was broke, and despite all of this Hatch skillfully guided it towards victory in 1982, when Hatch helped the State Party set fundraising records, retake the Governorship, the State House, and Two Congressional seats.
In 1998 Hatch was easily elected Attorney General, and then won a landslide reelection in 2002. Hatch is infinately stronger than our 2002 candidate, and their is a far weaker Independant candidate this time around. Last time former Democratic congressman Tim Penny ran. Penny had represented conservative leaning Southern Minnesota for many years before retiring in 1994, the seat is now Gil Gutneckt's. However, their candidate is not as weak as I would like, former State finance commisionar Peter Hutchinson is running, but I'm not really sure how high profile or negative a campaign he will run, and for that matter whether this is really a 'spirited' run.
Hatch hails from Jim Oberstar's district, where he grew up in the district's largest town, Duluth. Here is the way I see the state break down, district by district.
MN-08: This is Hatch's home turf, while Pawlenty has absolutely no base here. Further more Pawlenty has done plenty of things to upset the the very economically liberal voters of this 53% Pro-Kerry district. Even with Rod Grams exciting the base of the more conservative exurban part of the district at it's Southern extreme, they still acount for less than a third of the district. Hatch regularly performs strongly in the rural areas, even those that did not favor Kerry. My prediction is, if Hatch runs a good campaign and plays all of his cards right, he's headed towards 60% or so in this district. I'd say the results should somewhat close to this. 61-37-2
MN-07: This district is far more conservative MN-08, it gave Bush 55% of the vote in 2004, but it's represented by a Democrat in Congress, and is known for being a district evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, however, Democrats here seem hell bent on opposing their party's Presidential nominees. However, on a state level, this is known as a swing district. Hatch has a strong connection to this district, and performs well here. He won it handily both times, and Democrats here seem to be very willing to vote for their party's Gubernatorial nominee. Hatch does well with rural voters in most of the northern half of the state. My prediction, if Hatch does what I said he must do above to win MN-08 by a large margin, he'll likely win this. The results should be somewhere along the lines of 52-43-5, depending on how good a campaign Pawlenty runs.
MN-06: This is Mark Kennedy's district. It gave Bush his highest percentage in the whole state 2004, 57%. It's highly conservative, but Hatch's main problem here doesn't lie in that, but in the fact that he is not a suburban Democrat, but one who hails from the Northern end of the state. Then add in the fact that Pawlenty was a suburban legislator before winnning the Govenorship in 2002, and you get to where the tides turn to Pawlenty. His picking of Judy Dutcher to be his Lieutenant Governor buys him a few brownie points, seeing as how she was elected as a liberal Republican to the State Auditor's seat, then switched parties and lost the 2002 Democratic Nomination for the Governors race. Then she won a highly Republican leaning House District based in Minnetonka. I'm not sure which congressional district that is in however. Not to mention Republican turnout here will ber bolstered by the fact that local GOP golden boy Mark Kennedy is locked in a close race for U.S. Senate. Still, the results here should look something like this: 59-34-7.
MN-05: This is one of the most Democratic Districts in the Country, giving Kerry nearly 72% of the vote. Hatch's only concern is going to be the turnout. If turnout here, in the district that gives the lopsided returns that pushes Democrats over the edge in every close statewide race, is low, Pawlenty wins, simple as that. Hatch MUST have high turnout here. Anyway, results should be around 72-25-3.
MN-04: This is Betty McCollum's district, and it is the second most Democratic district in the state. It gave Kerry nearly 64% of the vote. Again, as with MN-05, Pawlenty isn't even remotely compeititive hear, but turnout is an issue. Luckily we have Amy Klobuchar, who hails from this district in a compeititve race for U.S. Senate. That drives up Democratic turnout, which helps Hatch. She may also drive Democratic turn out higher in MN-05 as well. Hatch gets something around this on election day, 66-32-2.
MN-03: This district gave Minnesota it's closest Presidential results in 2004. Bush carried by three points, 51-48. It's considered a Swing district. However it's represented by undefeatable moderate, Jim Ramstad, one of only three members of the Minnesota Congressional delegation to vote for Stem Cell Research. Again the problem Hatch has is that he has no base in the suburbs aside from Dutcher who should help from getting completely swept off the floor in the suburbs. Still, Hatch, unfortunately, will not be winning this, fortunately, if he uses Dutcher smartly, this is a district he can make close.
The End Game should yeild results similar to this, 53-45-2, in Pawlenty's favor.
MN-02: This is arguably the most Republican District in the state. It was gerrymandered in 2002 to become even more Republican. However, Bush only got 54% here in 2004. In 2002, because of the redistricting, that radically reshaped this district and Kennedy's district. This district then kicked out it's 4 term Democratic Representative by a considerable margin, and this was against an opponent who wasn't exactly a first tier candidate and whom Luther had beaten several times before. Even with Dutcher consider Hatch swept off the floor. 58-40-2 on election day.
MN-01: This is another narrowly Republican leaning district. It went for Bush 51-47. That same year however Democrats made big gains around Rochester on a state level. However, traditional turnout has dropped during midterms. Rochester, in Olmsted county, the district's population center and home to the Mayo Clinic, was one of only 14 of Minnesota's 87 counties to vote against Hatch is his second bid for Attorney General. But hopefully the continuing Democratic trend will help us perform well in this fairly evenly mixed, (urban/suburban/rural), district. Having Tim Walz on ballot and running in a competitive race against Gutneckt, one in which he is raising a large amount of money, is a HUGE help for us. Walz should drive up the Democratic turnout everywhere, which should help Hatch. Still, neither Hatch nor Dutcher has any base here, and Pawlenty has courting Rochester pretty hard of late. Hatch shouldn't do much better than this, 54-43-3 in Pawlenty's favor.
The rounded results are 52-45-3 statewide in Hatch's favor, and that's with the assumption that Hatch will be able to use Dutcher succesfully in moderate suburbs, and that Walz will drive up Democratic turnout in MN-01. Add on top of that the assumption that Hatch will maintain a massive margin in the northern portion of the state. As well as that all of these numbers could vary significantly, as they are just my balanced predictions, and that Hutchinson could take much more of the Democratic vote than 3%, and what do you have? A race that's undecided and a toss up.
The second part of this series is on the Minnesota Senatorial race and the Congressional races. But this one wa already too long, so I've decided to split them in two. Please vote in my poll. Thanks.