More details are out regarding the Mason-Dixon poll that
Ben Tribbett scooped the other day. The headline numbers, of course, were 48% for Allen, 32% for Webb, with the rest undecided. At first glance, a 16-point lead for Allen doesn't sound very good for Webb. However...
*Other recent polls (
Rasmussen and Zogby) have shown Allen with about a 10-point lead. Allen is hovering right at or below 50%.
*For an incumbent like Allen, with 97% name recognition (according to the poll), to be at or under 50% is very, very bad news.
*People simply don't know Jim Webb yet. As J. Bradford Coker, Mason-Dixon managing director, said, "It's only July...Undecided voters tend to go more for the challenger than for the incumbent."
*Mason-Dixon didn't "push" undecideds to make a decision at this point. According to UVA political scientist Larry Sabato:
..once the undecideds are properly allocated, Webb is almost certainly over 40 percent, not this exceptionally low 32 percent. Right now, it's an 8 to 10 percent race, with Allen out front holding a shaky majority.
*President Bush, with whom George Allen votes 97% of the time, is VERY unpopular in Virgnia. Only 43% of Virginians give Bush a positive rating, with 56% rating it "fair" or "poor." And, once again, Allen is a Bush clone - 97% - and there's no way that can help him (by a 14 point margin, voters said they woulud be LESS LIKELY to support a candidate who voted overwhelmingly with Bush).
*According to Sabato, "This is primarily a Democratic year, and there's a breeze at the backs of most Democratic nominees."
*Finally, African Americans are largely (45%) undecided at this point, with another 39% going for Webb and just 16% for Allen. According to Coker:
That's good for Webb. Most black voters don't know who he is" and will be encouraged by black Democrats they know to go for Webb.
So, overall, we're right where we've been for weeks now, with an 8-10 point for George Allen in the dog days of summer. Sort of like Tim Kaine last year, come to think of it. And, just like last year, my guess is that Allen's lead will narrow sharply by October, to 0-5 points. At that point, it's anyone's ballgame.
By the way, I would note that, as unpopular as President Bush was last year, and as much as that hurt Jerry Kilgore, it's even WORSE this year. First of all, Bush's popularity is, if anything, even lower than it was last year. Second, it is FAR easier and more plausible to tie George Allen to Bush, since Allen serves in the U.S. Senate and votes 97% of the time to support Bush's legislative agenda.
In contrast, Jerry Kilgore may have been a philosophical soulmate of Bush's, but he wasn't in Congress. This fact should make Allen far more vulnerable than Kilgore to being tarred with Bush's unpopularity on the Iraq debacle, the rapidly slowing economy, the "culture of corruption" in Washington, the tarnishing of America's image around the world, etc., etc. If I were George Allen, I certainly wouldn't want to run on THAT! And meanwhile, don't forget, Jim Webb was "born fighting" - AGAINST bullies like George Allen and FOR our country. Something tells me, this is going to be one fight that George Allen never forgets.
P.S. Debate video is now avaiable on the Webb for Senate website. The quality isn't great, because we worked with the Virginia Bar Association and that's what they gave us. Wonderful, eh? Anyway, it's good enough so that you can get the idea - Jim Webb did great!
P.P.S. To help Jim Webb get his message out and persuade all those "undecideds," please give whatever you can - $10, $25, whatever. Thanks.
Lowell Feld is Netroots Coordinator for the Jim Webb for US Senate Campaign. The ideas expressed here belong to Lowell Feld alone, and do not necessarily represent those of Jim Webb, his advisors, staff, or supporters.