I've watched the 2006 Senate races intently. We've got Santorum, Burns, Chafee, DeWine and Talent in varying degrees of danger. The search for that sixth seat which may give us control of Congress' upper chamber looks long and hard. Let's briefly analyze the possibilities.
Harold Ford's a good candidate for Tennessee and he's getting lots of institutional support, but Ford hasn't polled better than 42% (not counting the Zogby/WSJ polls). Jim Webb's an awesome candidate who needs more DSCC support. He's facing one of the worst senators of all time (George Allen) but hasn't polled better than 41% at any point since his primary win (excluding Zogby Interactive). Jim Pederson is really underperforming in Arizona, where wingnut Jon Kyl should be much more vulnerable. The last Rasmussen poll showed a 19 point blowout in favor of Kyl.
This leads me to Nevada. Nevada IS the sixth seat, and we should be doing more to turn their entire congressional delegation BLUE.
Why Nevada? First, some background information.
Nevada was one of the closest states in the 2004 Presidential election. Bush won Nevada by just 2.59%, or 21,500 votes. This made NV the seventh-closest state in the Union (only PA, OH, IA, NH, NM, and WI were more tightly contested).
The state has grown substantially the past six years. The 2000 census recorded Nevada's population at 1,998,257, and it's estimated population as of July 1, 2005 is 2,414,807. The power of incumbency is not as great in Nevada due to its explosive population growth.
Nevada's a very strange and enigmatic state politically. It leans conservative, but the conservatives are NOT generally cut from the authoritarian mold. As a matter of fact, there's a real libertarian streak in the great majority of Silver State conservative voters. In that respect, their conservatives mirror the conservative voters in redder Western territory like Montana and Arizona.
As a result, John Ensign, who is not libertarian in the least, is not in as commanding a position as the National Journal indicates. Chuck Todd's publication rates Nevada as noncompetitive, stating:
Is Carter playing too nice? It's August, and he still hasn't engaged Ensign.
Jack Carter is NOT playing nice at all with Senator Ensign. He's looking to expand his base to areas where being called a Democrat is worse than being called an asshole. Quaour from the kos frontpage diary on Wednesday explains how Carter is connecting better than previous Democrats in rock-ribbed Republican territory. This, to the diarist, is the most notable part of the letter:
A couple of anecdotes involving the Repubs: one told me he had worked hard for Ensign vs Harry Reid and then later when he won. He said Ensign hadn't been back since. I promised all these small towns that when I got elected, I'd come back. They all liked that.
Carter is discovering a disconnect between Ensign and his base (rural and suburban Nevada voters) and is working his tail off to fill the breach. He grew up in rural America, and like his famous father, can connect very well with lower-middle class and middle class rural voters. He's also focused more attention on Reno, the second largest city in Nevada, and more libertarian in nature than most Republicans or Democrats realize. Earlier this week, Jack Carter and kickass NV-2 Democratic candidate Jill Derby were canvassing Reno HARD, and cutting into the Republican base.
The push by the Carter campaign to attract non-Vegas voters has produced a trend similar to the Lieberman-Lamont race. This is now clearly a SECOND-TIER race. On April 5, Ensign led Carter in a Vegas Review Journal poll by more than a 2-1 margin, 60-27. On May 15, Ensign led Carter in a Reno Gazette poll 52-32. For almost three months, nobody polled the race, thinking that Ensign was in the clear. Rasmussen shot that theory down in flames Wednesday, when Carter polled within 7 points of Ensign (46-39). We have not seen this kind of drastic movement in the other second-tier Senate races. Note that Carter isn't getting Harry Reid's full support yet, since Reid hasn't broken his nonaggression pact with Ensign. Jack Carter, his staff, and most notably his daughter Sarah, have closed the gap with boots on the ground and good old fashioned hard work. Jill Derby's hard-nosed presence and in-your-face campaign for NV-2 also helps matters greatly.
We know the Beltway pundits have trailed the national mood by about six weeks, but I don't think any of the experts in DC actually realize what's going on in Nevada. With one more close poll, this race must be moved up and the DSCC must give Jack some dough to continue the good fight. Senator Ensign is becoming more vulnerable by the day, and the netroots cannot waste this terrific chance. Ignoring a swing state like Nevada may cost us the Senate.