While the majority of the diaries written regarding Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon on this site are about the destruction of the current war, civilian casualties and calls for an immediate cease-fire, I've yet to see one about what will happen to Lebanon AFTER a cease-fire takes effect.
Since the shooting started, one of my biggest concerns is that the end-result may be a new civil war in Lebanon. I've heard many people dismiss this possibility out of hand, pointing to polls that show an overwhelming support of the Lebanese against Israel. But then I read a chilling piece in the NYT Magazine by the opinion editor of The Daily Star, an English-language newspaper published in Beirut, that got me worried once more.
More below:
While the Lebanese may be united against Israel, once the shooting stops, there still is the problem posed by either a Hezbollah victory or defeat: (All excerpts from the NYT piece)
The great fear expressed by many Lebanese is that the country can absorb neither a Hezbollah victory against Israel nor a Hezbollah defeat. If Hezbollah merely survives as both a political and military organization, it can claim victory. The result may be the expansion of the party's authority over the political system, thanks to its weaponry and its considerable sway over the Lebanese Army, which has a substantial Shiite base. This, in turn, might lead to a solidification of Iranian influence and the restoration of Syrian influence. A Hezbollah defeat, in turn, would be felt by Shiites as a defeat for their community in general, significantly destabilizing the system.
Even more chilling are Hezbollah comments about what may happen to the Lebanese that did not support them:
As the violence continues, retribution is in the air. Israel has focused its attacks on Shiites, leaving Sunni, Christian and Druse areas (though not their long-term welfare) relatively intact. Amid all the destruction, many a representative of the March 14 movement has denounced Hezbollah's ``adventurism,'' provoking Shiite resentment. As one Hezbollah combatant recently told The Guardian: ``The real battle is after the end of this war. We will have to settle score with the Lebanese politicians. We also have the best security and intelligence apparatus in this country, and we can reach any of those people who are speaking against us now. Let's finish with the Israelis, and then we will settle scores later.''
And directly from the horse's mouth:
This essentially repeated what Hassan Nasrallah told Al Jazeera in an interview broadcast a week after the conflict began: ``If we succeed in achieving the victory . . . we will never forget all those who supported us at this stage. . . . As for those who sinned against us . . . those who made mistakes, those who let us down and those who conspired against us . . . this will be left for a day to settle accounts. We might be tolerant with them, and we might not.''
Could this be bluster on the part of Hezbollah? I don't know enough about them or the region to hazard a guess. But I know if I were a non-Hezbollah supporter in Lebanon, I'd be worried. This is why I think enforcing the disarmament of Hezbollah is critical for the international community - for the sake of Lebanon.