Does anyone else think that these fine parsing of which 20 seats the Democrats need to take to win back the house is something that, three months from now, will just seem kind of silly. Everywhere I look, the Democrats have better, fresher, more exciting candidates, while the Republicans are chained to six years of voting with Bush (no matter how hard they try to pretend otherwise now).
A trip up to Boston, and a fundraiser for Robert Rodriguez (who, in the interested of full disclosure, is a friend of mine), the Democratic candidate for the massive CA-25, brought this home. Here's a guy, 29-years old, engaging, energetic, and smart enough to figure out that the major issues of the day are all cutting sharply in the Democrats favor, especially in his district:
-Seniors? Getting whiplashed by the corporate welfare known as Medicare Plan D.
-Middle Class families who moved out to the exurbs to raise the quality of life at the expense of a longer commute? Getting double-whammied by higher gas prices on that commute, and rising interest rates on the ARM with which they bought their home.
-Veterans? Mad as heck that their lives were put on the line to protect Halliburton guys making twice their pay, and returning home to meager benefits.
-Students? Facing higher student loan payments, thanks to a 2 percentage point bump up in student loan rates.
Its to the point where I'm actually wondering who is still voting Republican? To borrow a phrase from "Papa Bear", I think its going to be only the "Christian" Conservatives who've finally swallowed the Rovian kool-aid and think that it really is all about them (plus a fraction of the 2% of the population that really does benefits from the current course).
The moral of story? Forget parsing district demographics and historical performances and early polls for the dozen or two best bets. The quality of the candidates, the energy they put into the race, and the support we give them matter, too. We should be thinking big here. Focusing on the best 20 pick-up possibilities may leave too much to fate, and lead one to miss the promise of the next 80.
I hesitate to use the word 'revolution', for its been misused too much before, the country is heading for a major change this November, as long as we think big.