This is going to be real short and the ending is sweet. Joe Leiberman will pull out of the Conn. Senate race by October 1st and it will be entirely because the netroots took action and have framed the debate squarely as No-Mentum Vs. Te Democratic Party. This isn't progressive against conservative/appeaser policy, this won't even have anything to do with Iraq. This will have everything to do with the one thing that all campaigns come down to.....
MONEY.
With Democratic leaders from micro-local to macro-national disavowing Joe's grandiose tribute to narcissism all traditional party funds are currently frozen and don't show any sign of thawing out. Unions, ecological groups and the thousands of regular big check donors who fuel statewide elections are lined up solidly behind the People Choice winner: Ned Lamont. Yes, if the election were held today uncle Joe would win based on the whimsy of independents and Republicans, but those are weak planks to tread on.
Independents are independent for a reason. They can't make up their minds and take a stance. Oh, there are some hardy Thoreau types who take their politics too seriously to oblige themselves to a dogma but the other 98% of independents are too either too disinterested in the process to pick a side or chose to be Switzerland for professional reasons (my plumber neighbor can talk for hours on end without ever taking a position on anything and everyone in the neighborhood thinks he agrees with them...privately. Kinda like Dennis Miller before he got Conservative Brain Disorder). Obviously this is a very fickle and unreliable block of maybe-voters. While people this non-commital are always happy to make a choice with a pollster over the phone in August, they tend to disappear when the poll counts in November (see "teenagers" and "young single mothers"). Bottom line: if these people ever do toss coin to a campaign it is within days of the election and in small change or in the form of a bumper sticker on the back of their utility shed. Useless.
As for the large majority of Republi-can'ts who are lining up with exuberant support for Loserman...MEH... The first commandment of conservatism is THOU SHALT BE CHEAP. Extending help to those in need is anathma to the Republicouldn'ts creed. As with the Indies, Connecti-Reps are happy to lend their voice to pollsters three months before the election. This way when someone calls for a charitable donation they can say they've already done their part this quarter. When it comes to actually getting into a car and driving to the local voting booth to vote for ... A DEMOCRAT... well, that would be a bit much don't you think? Clearly, turnout among Leib-licans will be low in October but to expect any actual money from them in September would be ludicrous. Won't happen.
So who does Joe go to for walk-around money next week? He will have plenty of Squat from Democrats, Bupkus from Republicans and a whole heap O' nada from the nobel Independents. I quess that leaves Boeing, and Glaxo and the Carlyle Group. However with Abramov-gate and a likely house win for the Dems and the inevitable loss of seniority, Joe might not be much of a value for K Street. Nope, there is no hope and no money. TV buys get real expensive in October but there won't be any money so that won't be a problem. Joe will be running for Senate on a school board budget. By the end of Sept. most of Joe's paid staff will be looking for employment elsewhere and most of his volunteers will be ... poof! Like I said, indies and Leib-licans aren't very reliable.
See'Ya on FOX Joe. Maybe you can be Hannity's substitute coffee boy.