Here is where the CT-Sen race stands as per the recent
Quinnipiac poll
(courtesy: courant.com)
But, by merely increasing his support among Democrats from 63% to 75% and evening out support among Independents from 36% to 47% (both realistic and reasonable goals), Lamont will manage a 4% margin victory:
Prediction for CT-Sen:
Lamont (49%), Lieberman (45%), Schlesinger (4%), Other (1%)
Details and analysis below the fold.
Based on CT voter registration rolls as of
10/25/05 (
H/T to Esjaydee@Dkos, and factoring in 28 thousand new Democratic registrants (14K new voters registered as Democrats and 14K switched their registration from unaffiliated to Democratic in the lead up to the primary:
link), we get the following breakdown of the CT voter registration figures, plus or minus:
Approximate Voter Registration by Party Affiliation in CT
Republican: 453.7K (21.6%)
Democratic: 727.5K (34.6%)
Minor Party: 4.4K (0.2%)
Unaffiliated: 915.0K (43.8%)
Currently, here is how they are breaking in a 3-way race between JL (Joe Lieberman of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party, loser of the Democratic primary where a record 40% turned out to make their choice for the nominee), NL (Ned Lamont, the Democratic nominee) and AS (Alan Gold Schlesinger, a Republican gambler) and NA/O (other) as fractions:
Current support levels
(based on Quinnipiac Poll, Aug 10-14)
JL NL AS
NA/O
Dem 0.35 0.63 0. 0.02
Rep 0.75 0.13 0.1 0.02
Ind 0.58 0.36 0.03 0.02
which gives Lieberman (53.7%), Lamont (40.4%), Schlesinger (3.5%), Other (2%) among registered voters. Note that Q-Poll has 53/41/4/2 for likely voters, and 49/38/4/- among registered voters; without knowing their "likely voter" models and the registration data they are using, it is hard to reconcile the numbers. Let us use registered voters for our calculations.
Here are some basic strategy and pathways for a Lamont win:
1. Increasing his support among Democrats to 70% (Lieberman's 28%), and evening out support among other (unaffiliated+minor parties) to 47% apiece, would yield: Lieberman (46.46%), Lamont (47.62%), a narrow win.
2. If he can further improve his Dem support to 75% (Lieberman 23%) to match what Lieberman is getting among his (de facto fellow) Republicans, then we'd have: Lieberman (44.73%), Lamont (49.35%), a decent margin for Lamont.
3. If he can up his support among Unaffiliateds to 50% (Lieberman 44%), then we'd have: Lamont (50.67%), Lieberman (43.42%), Schlesinger (3.47%), a convincing victory for Ned.
How can Lamont potentially improve his Dem and Ind support levels? Here are two factors to consider:
Bush Job Approval (from SUSA)
Approve Disapprove
Dems 12% 87%
Reps 67% 32%
Inds 28% 66%
(67% CT-Republicans still riding in Bush fantasy gardens!)
From the Q-Poll
31. As you may know, Senator Lieberman is a strong supporter of the war in Iraq. Do you agree or disagree with Senator Lieberman's position on the war in Iraq?
Agree Disagree
Dems 16% 79%
Reps 74% 23%
Inds 36% 59%
(i.e., 74% CT-Republicans are especially enjoying Cheney/Bush/Lieberman's Iraq merry-go-round!)
What do I think Lamont should talk about: here are some thoughts:
1. continue talking about the Iraq war, and the 100 billion per year (250 million per day) being sunk into it, and how that's adversely affecting other national priorities, such as healthcare, education among others.
2. talk about the prospect of other unwarranted and preemptive future attacks against Iran, Syria and other countries, in the same mold as they did with Iraq, which Lieberman has repeatedly shown an inclination to support.
3. never stop mentioning how those misadventures are contributing (among other factors), to the ballooning national debt (approaching 9 trillion dollars, of which 3.5 trillion is the handiwork of Bush and Co, about 10K per every man, woman and child in America). Iraq was has been estimated to have cost between 1 and 2 trillion dollars in direct and indirect costs.
4. talk about Lieberman's role in helping Alito's nomination to go through by opposing a filibuster, and potentially continuing similar handing over of the supreme court to extreme rightwing judges, via his role in the creation and participation in the Gang of 14. Drive this home to women voters. Talk about how South Dakota has banned abortion and other states are considering following suit, and how that will likely reach the supreme court for a showdown on Roe v. Wade.
Please add your thoughts in the comments section.