An
internal poll puts Harold Ford, Jr.,
ahead by 2 in Tennessee's senate race. But that's just scratching the surface of the good news.
Here's the real story behind the poll: outside of Corker's base, he has very little support... and even his base doesn't like him that much!
How reliable is this poll? Very.
How good does this race look for the Democrats? Very.
Make the jump, and I'll prove it.
The internal poll has Ford up 44/42 over Bob Corker. Yes, it's an internal poll--but consider this:
-it's 1118 likely voters
-it's statewide
-it's skewed conservative (like the state) with a sample group consisting of 48% conservatives, 32% moderates, and 14% liberals.
-in fact, this poll is so skewed conservative, it's got Bush with a 51% approval rating, compared to 39% on SurveyUSA.
-it's got a margin of error of only 2.9%.
So the deck is not stacked in Ford's favor in this poll. If anything, it's stacked against him. And across the board, this poll shows Ford is in very strong shape. Let's take a deeper look at the numbers...
Unfavorables:
Corker 26%
Ford 29%
Verdict: Virtually even. Ford is just a dab higher, but Corker has some huge liabilities ready to come crashing down around him.
Favorables:
Corker 48%
Ford 55%
Verdict: Ford has a respectable lead here against the Republican in a Red state. And it gets better...
Strongly Favorable:
Corker 16%
Ford 29%
Verdict: Great news for Ford! Only 1 in 3 people with a favorable view of Corker say it's "strongly" favorable, while more than half of Ford's favorables are in the "strongly" category.
What does that tell you? Corker's support is weaker than Ford. The reason? Corker has a big base problem:
Conservatives (48% of those polled):
Corker 63%
Ford 24%
Verdict: Good news for Ford. The Republican can't even score two-thirds of the conservative vote while 1-in-4 conservatives have already made up their mind for Ford.
Moderates (32% of those polled):
Corker 28%
Ford 57%
Verdict: Ford is dominating the moderates 2:1! Yes, 2:1!
Liberals (14% of those polled):
Corker 10%
Ford 81%
Verdict: Forget the belly-achin' you hear on dKos. Local liberals are ready to vote Ford.
Oh, and if you're still thinking there's no way Tennessee goes Democrat this November, keep this in mind: Right now, Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) has an approval rating of 77%. He's going to be re-elected in November by huge margins. So Tennessee voters are more than willing to cast their ballot for a Democrat.
Sorry to drown you in numbers today, but I promised yesterday that I'd get into all the gory details of the poll. And to reward you for slogging your way through all those poll numbers, I'll reward you with a fun poll of our own...
Bob Corker's fellow Republicans have come up with some very creative nicknames for him over the years. Which is your favorite? Cast your vote below.
I'm setting up a group of Ford supporters to provide our candidate with some people-powered netroots activism. If you're interested in joining, send your email address to fordnetroots@yahoo.com
For the latest on all things Ford, check out Chris Jackson's kick-ass blog.