I don't understand why people are focusing on 10 or 15 or 25 races in the Congress when they are ALL up for grabs. And the thing we have learned so far is when the Netroots are involved, the Netroots win.
So far I have looked at Colorado, Indiana and Nevada.
And before we take the jump, I just wanted to remind you that you can contribute to candidates on this project by hitting this ActBlue page
North Carolina has thirteen Congressional Districts of which 6 are currently held by Dems and are held by Reps. Democrats are fielding challenges to all seats.
NC-1 - Northeast portion of the state, a very rural district including Rocky Mound. This district is 64% Democrat, and Butterfield is safe.
NC-1 Safe Blue
NC-2 - More centrally located, including Fayetteville and parts of Raleigh. This region gave Bobby Etheride 62% of the vote, but W got 55%. You'd figure this would be a good race for the Reddies, but according to OpenSecrets, Etheridge has a 20x cash advantage, and CQ is calling it safe for Etheridge. Nothing to see here, move along, move along.
NC-2 Safe Blue
NC-3 - In the southcentral portion of the seaboard, includes Jacksonville and the Outer Banks. This particular section of the state is a God-guns-and-gays section of the state. That being said, Craig Weber, a Marine and retired TV meteorlogist has has his head on right. His tag-line is "We're off-course. You can feel it." From word from folks there, there are an awful lot of Weber signs out there and there are signs of life in the race. This is a race that we can make a difference in. We shouldn't expect miracles, but with help from us, he can run a helluva race and scare the crap out of the Red establishment (a la CA-50).
NC-3: Strong red, but worth trying
NC-4 - Central part of the state, including part of Raleigh, Durham, and Chapell Hill. Research Triangle park is wealthy, educated and liberal. That said, Republican Steve Acuff, formerly an Air Force Colonel, seems to be a strong candidate and David Price has come off a primary challenge. Still, this seems to be a safe Blue seat. We shouldn't take this one for granted.
NC-4: Strong blue, but needs lovin.
NC-5 - Northwestern portion of the state including parts of Winston-Salem. Kerry picked up an anemic 33% here, and there are very few minorities of any kind. It's going to be hard going against Foxx, but Roger Sharpe has been in politics a long time, having served in both the Carter and Reagan administrations. He's got a strong calling to civil rights. Still, this race is Foxx's to lose.
NC-5: Safe red
NC-6 - Central, including parts of Greensboro. This is another deep red district where the incumbent won last time with 73% of the vote. Oh. And the incumbent has won this race 10 times before. Still, Rory Blake is making the right noises, and, if he can raise a quarter of a million in the next couple of months, he can make a race of it.
NC-6: Safe red
NC-7 - Southern tip of the state, including Wilmington. Here's another district that's overwhelmingly Democratic, yet went for Bush. The Republican in this race is in the same boat as Rory Blake in NC-6. Nothing to see here.
NC-7: Safe Blue
NC-8 - South central portion of the state, including portions of Charlotte. Larry Kissell seems to be surprising everyone. A netroots candidate, Kissell was up by 8 against Hayes in April. Since then, Kissell has offered gas to voters for $1.22/gal, the price it was when Hayes took over. An expensive stunt, but one that will do him well in November. This is considered the 47th most vulnerable Republican seat, and I think Kissell will take it.
NC-8: Blue by 2
NC-9 - Southwest section of the state. Sue Myrick is the incumbent in a very red God-guns-and-gays district. The former mayor of Charlotte, Myrick's only problem this race was quelling the rumors she was running for governor. I don't see Bill Glass making a go of this.
NC-9: Safe red
NC-10 - Southwest section of the state. Patrick McHenry is the incumbent in another very red God-guns-and-gays district. Richard Carsner seems like a very decent fellow, but our best chance to reclaim this seat is through redistricting in four years. McHenry's a young guy, and absent redistricting, he's likely gonna grow old in DC.
NC-10: Safe red
NC-11 Southwest "corner" of the state, including Asheville. This is a Republican leaning district, but only by 55/45, and this year, that's almost blue! Add in Abramoff, miscellaneous scandals, and the fact that he's been blocking a memorial to the heros of Flight 93 which crashed that fateful day, and you've got a weak incumbent in a district that might go blue anyway. Well, well, well. Enter Heath Shuler, former University of Tennessee and Redskins quarterback, and, this race gets real interesting, real quick. Shuler is ahead in recent polls and way ahead in COH. Trust the QB to play it smart, and this one's ours.
NC-11: Touchdown!
NC-12 A small, winding, obviously gerrymandered district to ensure that African Americans get a representative. Well, they've got one. Mel Watt. This is gonna be a rematch of the 2004 race against Dr. Ada Fisher. Watt won that one by 30+ points. Nothing to see here. Move along.
NC-12: Safe blue
NC-13 Northern central district of the state including parts of Greensboro and Raleigh. Our friend Brad Miller is the incumbent here. The Republicans are running a crazed homophobe fundy named Vernon Robinson. I haven't seen any polls, but I have seen dollar figures, and, Brad Miller needs our help, because that crazy wingnut's got dollars to burn and he's putting out ads that'll make your head spin. Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes true.
NC-13: CQ says safe blue. I sure hope so. I'm putting Brad on my ActBlue page right now.
Running total for my guesss on pickups: 10