Here is the latest poll:
The Race Tightens
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/...
The key excerpt:
"The Keystone Poll of 551 Pennsylvania voters shows Casey, the state treasurer from Scranton, leading Santorum, of Penn Hills, by five percentage points -- 44 to 39 percent. Green Party nominee Carl Romanelli, a former Luzerne County family court officer, garnered 4 percent, and 13 percent of respondents were undecided."
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First of all some people may find this poll disturbing. At first, though, it does look troubling.
However, I still think Santorum is likely headed toward defeat. The first factor is that Romanelli is probably off the ballot. So once Romanelli is struck from the ballot the bitter Pennachiods supporting will probably go back to Casey. The second factor is that Santorum, despite the advertising, still remains trapped in the high 30's/low 40's. While Casey has lost some support, Santorum hasn't gained any either.
A link that I posted in another PA Senate thread this week indicated that Santorum was receiving only 39% in the Phladelphia suburbs. This does not forebode well for Santorum, since he carried the suburban counties around Philadelphia city in 1994 and in 2000. Without them I don't think that he has enough votes to win.
Santorum's only hope is winning those sububanites, which it is clear that he will be lucky to run even with Casey in the four counties surrounding Philadelphia: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery. Thus, if Casey can mirror Rendell and Kerry's numbers in Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia counties, even before other precincts in the Commonwealth report on election night, he will have a very strong lead.
Santorum's only other hope of winning is picking up Reagan Democrats, who are blue-collar and Catholic. These are Democrats in places like Scranton, Erie, the Lehigh Valley, SW PA, and Johnstown. While these voters are economically liberal, they are socially moderate to conservative. Because Casey is pro-life and pro-gun, much to the consternation of many posters here, those issues have been neutralized. Whatever appeal Santorum might have had with those voters is neutralized.
Although the Santorum campaign is probably going to cheer the new numers, I think that (privately) they are of the mindset that they can't win a two-man race. That is why they aggresively indirectly helped Romanelli secure his spot on the ballot. They really spent a lot of money and time assisting Romanelli. That indicates to me that they had hoped for Romanelli to peel enough bitter Pennachio supporters to Naderize Casey. Given that the petitions for Romanelli are questionable, it looks like their efforts to place a Green candidate on the ballot will fail.
Honestly, I do think Santorum will gain support in the final weeks as the Republican base in PA does come home. However, in the end, I think he ends up with around 45-48% of the vote. I don't think he can close the gap with Casey.
PA Democrats need to run up strong margins in the Commonwealth's four corners to win elections. The coners include Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Erie, and Scranton. Republicans need to carry the suburbs of Phialdelphia and the small towns of Central PA. They need to carry towns like Harrisburg, York, Sunbury, Selingsgrove, Carlisle, Lancaster, Gettysburg, Breezewood, Williamsport, and Altoona.
Casey is going to dominate Philadelphia and probably mirror Rendell and Kerry's numbers in the SE part of the state. He will win the Lehigh Valley and carry Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. He will also win Erie. Finally he will carry SW PA, running ahead of Rendell and Kerry, who have underperformed in that ancestrally Democratic region. He will also win Erie.
Casey is going to take the Reagan Democrats in places like Johnstown, Erie, Scranton, and SW PA that would have voted for Santorum had someone like Pennachio been the nominee. Without those Reagan Democrats and suburban Philadelphia voters, there aren't going be enough votes in York, Lancaster, Harrisburg, Carlisle, and other rural PA towns for Santorum to win.