I get increasingly frustrated that it can take up to an hour for me to get from my house in Northeast Philadelphia to Center City Philadelphia, ten miles away. It can also take me up to four hours to get from Harrisburg to Philadelphia, one hundred ten miles away.
In Philadelphia's City Council Chambers today, when the legislature's leading mass transit advocate, Democratic Rep. Babette Josephs of Center City, Philadelphia, presented Matt Sundeen as an expert witness, I gained insights into the large number of people who must share my frustrations.
Sundeen is the program principal with the Transportation Program at the National Conference of State Legislatures. He is the co-author of Surface Transportation Funding: Options for States, available from the National Conference of State Legislatures ($20, Item No. 014233, ISBN 1-58024-443-2) 7700 East First Place, Denver, Colorado 80230.
The 428% increase in traffic congestion since 1982 (from 0.7 billion hours of delay to 3.7 billion hours of delay in 2003) and the 475% increase in gallons of gas wasted since 1982 (from 0.4 billion gallons to 2.3 billion gallons in 2003) were for me the gripping statistics presented. They demonstrated that traffic congestion is a huge national problem.
Sundeen explained that it is a problem caused by many things. They can be summarized as "More people, more freight." There are 40 million more people in the U.S. since 1990, and there was a 35% growth in vehicle miles traveled from 1990 to 2003, and a 161% growth in vehicle miles traveled since 1970. 88% of all miles traveled are covered by car or truck, but the aggregate demand for public transportation is at its highest level since World War II.
Freight traffic has also grown rapidly, and now there are 12 billion tons of freight worth $10 billion each year through the transportation system. The demand for trucking has grown at an annual rate of nearly 4% since 1990, and may double again by 2020. If this happens, increased trade with Asia and South America will be a major factor.
Rail is losing ground as a competitor for freight, as track miles have decreased 37% since 1980. Rail layout was designed for hub travel in the 1800's. There are problems with decaying bridge and tunnel infrastructure, height clearance, and aging rail cars--all of which foreshadow further gain for the trucking industry.
But America's highway infrastructure is aging. 18% of roads are poor or mediocre. 27% of bridges are structurally deficient or obsolete. Road conditions are a factor in 30% of America's fatal crashes, killing 12,700 people or so annually and costing $230 million a year. Bad roads, researchers say, cost motorists $54 billion a year in extra repairs.
The obviously favored solution under this analysis is to build more roads and more lanes on existing roads. This analysis assumes that doing things like encouraging telecommuting and staggering work hours--already in effect some places at some times--cannot do enough to alter the underlying trend of population growth and growth of goods to be transported by truck.
Federal money for highways is the primary source of revenue for only 17 states. State gas tax revenues are the primary revenue source for 29 states. Motor vehicle taxes are the primary revenue source for Kentucky; tolls are the primary revenue source for Delaware; and bond revenue is the primary revenue source for Indiana, Massachusetts, and New Jeresey--in my judgment, a sign of long-term financial problems for the latter three states.
The federal contribution will fall drastically if Congress does not take decisive action. The U.S. Highway Account Balance has fallen from $10.8 billion in 2004 to $10.2 billion in 2006, and without federal action, will sink to $2.4 billion in 2008, and minus $2.3 billion in 2009.
A report of the National Chamber Foundation of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce indicated that all levels of government are $42 billion short of amount needed to maintain our highway system as it is and that there will be a $1 trillion cumulative funding shortfall by 2015.
There has been substantial gas tax purchasing power erosion. It is projected that there will be a 26% decline in the real value of the federal gas tax from 1996 to 2008. Construction costs are rising, and only the states of Missouri, Utah, and Wyoming have raised gas taxes sufficiently to keep pace with inflation since 1992.
Hybrid cars--still less than 1% of car sales nationally ( but 50% of cars used in my family, I am proud to report) mean that states collect less gas taxes per mile driven. Their sales will continue to grow; as I see it, this is an argument for new tax and revenue changes, not a valid argument against hybrid cars and the massive gas savings they represent.
The ultimate question is how to finance whatever highway expansion or lane expansion is needed. While there are concerns that highway expansion is in itself a major cause of additional driving, it is very clear that additional driving is occurring even though there has only been a growth of 1.5% more highway miles since 1980.
Options for more revenue include direct federal appropriations, increased state and federal borrowing, increased federal gas taxes, increased state gas taxes, changing state gas taxes from adding cents to each gallon of gas to a sales tax on whatever the total gas bill is each time one goes to the pump, setting up more toll roads, and authorizing private companies to build for-profit toll roads.
None of these options is particularly appealing to me or to many other state and federal legislators. That is why the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business interests are now suggesting that TAX INCREASES FOR ROAD COMSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE IS PRO-BUSINESS. Elected officials would like them to keep yelling that until large number of voters hear them. Elected officials are leery, of course, at being pegged as tax raisers.
Beyond tax increases or borrowing in one or more of its many mainfestations (anticipation notes, revenue bonds, general obligation bond, limited and special tax bonds, GARVEE bonds, SIBS, Private Activity Bonds, etc.) are relatively new ideas to encourage contractors to build more cost effectively for the long run.
I like the idea of contracts to maintain the roads that go along with contracts to build them; it seems reasonable to believe that these give the contractor a greater incentive to build for the long run. For similar reaons, I like the idea of builders giving the state or federal government warranties on their performance.
In the Daily Kos community, we often worry about the metaphorical question of what road the Democratic Party is traveling. It is clear we also have to worry about the everday question of what road the public is traveling, and how that road and its connecting roads--current and future--are to be financed.