I have thought long and hard for many painful weeks of the implications that setting a timetable in Iraq would have on our CURRENT situation in Iraq...
My conclusions and the purpose of this blog is not to discuss whether the Iraq invasion was a good idea. Likewise, the purpose is not to discuss if we should leave Iraq - both of these I accept as irrelevant to the purpose of this particular blog. I accept that we should leave and believe that we should set measures to gauge our success at leaving - not in a timetable form, rather in an event driven analysis -
- I am posting this diary because I am truly interested in a reasoned opinion about the repercussion of us leaving and creating a power vacuum, and the strategy any reader would propose about the method of our drawdown. Certainly some ways of leaving are better than others...
I'm posting these statements upfront because I am looking for discussion, not snippet comments, that would yield a different perspective from than my current view and discuss the strategic implications associated with the method of our departure.
As I said before, my conclusion of us leaving is fixed, that is not the debate. I do believe that we must set some standard for drawdown as Nixon attempted in Vietnam, a peace with honor approach. The current world view of the U.S. is a cause for concern for all of us, even those who don't believe that the Bush administrations actions have anything to do with our personal beliefs. Most of us are Americans, and the actions of our government, positively or negatively, reflect upon us as Americans. Abandoning Iraq as it currently is would leave a power vacuum like has happened so many other times throughout the course of history that would reflect poorly on us as Americans and also set the table for unwanted events to occur that would threaten our security. This opinion however, must be qualified with my belief that the longer our presence lasts in Iraq, the more the world hates us, the less we can accomplish diplomatically, and the more we attrite ourselves. A "stay the course" approach does little to explain a plan, if any, and the vagueness of our goals leaves uncertainty with our citizenry, world opinion, and soldiers that are serving in Iraq.
I do not see a "timetable" that is set on days, weeks, or any other measure of time to be a feasible solution either. In doing so, we are setting ourselves up for conditions that anti-Iraqi forces, insurgents, and terrorists control and will exploit and will ultimately produce little more than a wasted effort. However, I do see an event oriented set of expectations that will control our presence as a suitable method for our withdrawal. For instance, one benchmark could be legislation passed by the Iraqi Congress, other benchmarks could be crime rates, terrorist prescence, primary elections, and other specific control measures (sewage, water, electricity, academic standards) that are regulated by success instead of time could be feasible.
I firmly believe that the ambiguity of our measure of success weighs heavily on the Iraqis, Americans, and most importantly, soldiers who want to believe that they are making a difference but find it difficult to measure success on the strategic scope of the war. I certainly wish that more clarity could be given to the war and I wish that more clarity was demanded by our representatives, who all seem to be politically posturing themselves and firmly failing at their jobs.
My method is one approach that would indicate to ourselves and to the would that our presence can be measured by success and is governed by a rational set of goals. This approach cannot fall into the "cut and run" category as it is goal oriented and has an end state, likewise, it would not fall in line with "stay the course" as our current course is ambiguous and murky. My method, which I will call "accomplish and leave", avoids the false dilemma that is being perpetuated by the Bush administration but provides a possible solution.