As an active member of the Democratic grassroots and Democratic netroots, I do not get to talk to a lot of high-ranking Democratic operatives on a daily basis. But one called me today to chat about Presidential politics, and he had interesting news which he asked me not to attribute to him by name: Rick Santorum has aides who, despairing of his chances to win re-election, are seeking other jobs for 2007.
Reality is clearly sinking in among Santorum supporters. When the name of State Treasurer Robert Casey, the son of a popular Democratic governor and a superb fundraiser, was first bruited about in the aftermath of Casey's landslide win in November, 2004, Casey led in the polls against Santorum.
For nearly two years now, Casey has consistently led in every poll taken by every candidate. Neither Casey nor his father has ever lost a general election in Pennsylvania; both have lost Democratic gubernatorial primaries to candidates who were three times more liberal, especially on social issues (Milton Shapp and Ed Rendell) and once more conservative, especially on fiscal issues (Pete Flaherty).
Bob Casey though is no Joe Lieberman. I will be surprised to hear very frequently that he was on Fox TV echoing Republican talking points. He supports Pennsylvania's abortion control act, but promises he will not use abortion as a litmus test in evaluating a Democratic President's Supreme Court nominees.
Bob Casey is a moderate to conservative Democrat who clearly believes in the Democratic Party and has campaigned for Democrats all across Pennsylvania. He will certainly be pro-labor, pro-civil rights for all, pro-senior citizens, pro-human services, pro-education, and pro-fiscal responsibility.
He will likely be voting most of the time with Democratic Leader Harry Reid. On divisive issues within the Democratic Party, he will likely stand a lot more with Ted Kennedy than with Ben Nelson.
Democrats have last won a full-term Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 1962 (favorable reaction to JFK's handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis was a major factor), and last won a Senate election and a gubernatorial election on the same day in 1934.
This year, despite abstentions from some angry Democrats, Casey will almost certainly defeat Santorum. Many of the Democrats who are holdouts now will likely be strong Casey supporters in his 2012 re-election bid, but supporting him now is really much more important.