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Now that Connecticut put us over, let's move on to bigger things.  Illinois is bigger.  Let's go there.

Before we do, though, let's just take a quick look where we've been.  Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, New Mexico, West Virginia, Kansas and Connecticut.

And before we take the jump, I just wanted to remind you again that you can contribute to candidates on this project by hitting this ActBlue page

And, because I get grief about not pimping my other series, you can go here and join the BASICS series already in progress.

JUMP!

Illinois has 19 representatives, currently 10 Democrats and 9 Republicans.  We are fielding 19 candidates.  The reddies are fielding 18.

IL1 - Chicago Downtown, is represented by our guy, Bobby Rush, whom CNN gives the occupation "Activist", which is probably nicer than "Black Panther".  This guy "crashed the gates" before it was fashionable and won his last election handily with 85% of the vote.
IL1: Safe Blue.

IL2 - Chicago South Side, is represented by our guy Jesse Jackson Jr whose main claim to fame is his name, and following in his father's footsteps, spent his 21st birthday in a jail cell for protesting South African Apartheid.  Slightly more popular than Bobby Rush, maybe because he's younger and good looking.  Won his last election with 88%.
IL-2: Safe Blue.

IL3 - Chicago SouthWest Side is represented by our guy Dan Lipinski, who inherited his district from his father, Bill Lipinski.  This is a liberal district, and both father and son are fairly conservative, which is probably why he only won with 73% of the vote.
IL-3: Safe Blue, but should have a Bluer representative.

IL4 - Chicago North Side is represented by our guy Luis Gutierrez.  A good strong lefty, Luis' name always gets bandied around with words like "should run for Mayor if Daley...", of course the second part of that makes all the difference.  Until that "if Daley" thing comes to fruitition, expect Guiterrez to hang around Congress. He won his seat last time with 84% of the vote.
IL-4: Safe Blue.

IL5 - Chicago North Side, my district, is represented by Rahm Emanuel who looks every bit as geeky in person as he does in photographs.  Rahm heads up the DCCC and is safe in Congress until he retires.  He won his last election with 76%.
IL-5: Safe Blue.

IL6 - Near Northwest Suburbs including Wheaton and parts of Skokie.  I don't know who drew this district.  At one point, Wheaton had the most churches per capita in the United States and Skokie was the most Jewish locality.  Henry Hyde probably had a hand in it, as he was the congressman since the late 1640s, and was our area's answer to Jesse Helms.  I mean, really, how many guys have a gag rule named after them?  Anyway, thanks in no small part to the influence of Rahm Emanuel, Tammy Duckworth, an Army helicopter pilot who lost both of her legs in Iraq,  is our standard bearer in this race.  She is running against Pete Roskam, a personal injury lawyer and is way further to the right than the majority of this district.  Still, Wheaton is Wheaton, and it's not alone out there, and Pete has his natural constituency, while Tammy lives a few miles outside the District.  There's plenty of money flowing into this race, and it's going to be a tight one.  
IL-6: A nail-biter, but Tammy's up in the polls right now, and we are here, so let's paint this one BLUE!

IL7 - Chicago Downtown is represented by Danny Davis who has been in politics for an awfully long time in Chicago, and won his last election with 86%.
IL-7: Safe Blue

IL8 - Northwest Suburbs including Schaumburg, Mundelein and Zion.  Melissa Bean snagged this district last time around in a stunning victory over Phil Crane who had served the district for 33 years.  The Reddies are mad and they want "their" district back, but Illinois has gotten awfully blue in the past 35 years, and Melissa is no screaming liberal.  I think, in the end, they are going to throw a ton of money against her and they're going to loss it.  Couldn't happen to nicer people.
IL-8: Ours.  Nannynannybooboo!

IL9 - Chicago North Lakeshore to Evanston is represented by Jan Schakowsky who took it from Sid Yates who served the district for nearly 50 years.  Of all the congressmen whose districts I have ever lived in, Sid was the best.  Pat Schroeder (CO-1) once asked me to register to vote in her district because Sid was so safe he'd be in Congress eight years after he died.  Well, he isn't.  But Jan is, and I'm just as happy as can be with Jan.  She's smart.  She's progressive.  She's funny.  And someday, if America can stomach a short Jewish female president, she might make us all very happy.  She won her last election with 76%.
IL-9: Safe Blue.

IL10 - North Suburbs - very affluent - Represented by the reddie Mark Kirk.  When Rahm was getting Tammy to run against Christine Cegelis in IL-6, I suggested to him that he run her in IL-10 instead because it's a sin against nature that IL10 is represented by a Reddie.  It's a Blue district, but worse, it's a Jewish Blue district, and, it is a personal affront to me that IL-10 and FL-22 are held by reddies.  Kirk won this seat originally by pretending that he and Lauren Beth Gash, his Democratic opponent, were largely twins and that he was a huuuuuge moderate.  He isn't.  And our guy, Dan Seals, isn't letting him pretend he is.  Seals has his work cut out for him, but if he doesn't do it, Rahm, if you're reading this, I still think Tammy would have beaten him.
IL-10: I don't know... mmmmmmmmmmmaybe....

IL11 - South exurbs including Joliet.  Somehow, I think it's appropriate that Joliet is red territory.  When you think Joliet, you think prison and casinos.  In other words, Jerry Weller, is safe.  Still, our guy, John Pavich is doing better than you might think.  There's a lot of labor out there, and Weller is a pro-CAFTA kind of a guy.  Anyway, there's a call for dollars and boots on the ground, and you could do worse with both.
IL11: Might go Blue if Pavich can get his name out there.

IL12 - Southwest corner of the State, including Carbondale and East St. Louis - not associated with Chicago.  Our guy, like it or not, is Jerry Costello, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, is running unopposed.  Still, he's been there 20 years, and walked away with 69% last time, and the odds of getting someone more liberal in there, of either party, is not high, so I'd rather paint this district blue than red.  And that's the way it gets to be painted.
IL-12: Safe "Blue".

IL13 - Southwest suburbs including Naperville.  I thought the reddie, Judy Biggert, was going to run unopposed in this one, and it pissed me off.  Evidently it pissed Joe Shannon off too, so he's running.  But from the looks of things, he's not running hard, and Judy Biggert, who really should be vulnerable, is going to skate.  
IL-13: Safer Red than it should be.

IL14 - Northern exurbs including DeKalb and Aurora.  This is Dennis Hastert's district, and I wish John Laesch well of it.  Out of respect to my fellow Kossack, I'm not calling this race.  
IL-14: Take a moment and imagine nice relaxing music and a lovely vista.  Ah, that's nice.  And the birds chirp so sweetly.

IL15 - Good.  Back to the action.  East Central portion of the State, not associated with Chicago, includes Champaign and Bloomington.  This district is represented by the reddie Tim Johnson who got 61% last time.  Even so, Johnson's fundraising has been lackluster, and he's running about even in dollars against our guy, Dr. David Gill, who is putting in a lot of miles to meet the residents of the district and make sure that they know that their representative is a rubberstamp Republican.  A little goes a long way in this race, and if you have a spare $20 kicking around, this might be a good place to put it.
IL-15: With netroots help, this could be a race.

IL16 - Norhtern exurbs including Rockford and McHenry County.  The reddie, Don Manzullo won this district with 69% but theoretically, it's bluer than it appears as John Kerry walked away with 44%.  Our guy is Dick Auman who served two terms as Mayor of Galena.  If Auman wins, he's going to be swept in on a big blue tide.
IL-16: Safe Red.

IL17 - Western portion of state including parts of Springfield, Moline and Rock Island.  Maybe the best chance the reddies have to swipe one of ours, this district was represented by Lane Evans until after his Parkinson's got bad and he asked the Democratic party to replace him on the ballot with Phil Hare.  Phil is running against Andrea Zinga, a former television reporter who had her butt handed to her my Lane last time.  Since Lane's sudden departure, this race has looked a lot more interesting to the reddies.  Zinga is holding a slight dollar advantage, but CQ still puts it in the blue column, and who am I to argue?
IL-17: Leans Blue.

IL18 - Central portion of state including more of Springfield and Peoria.  The red incumbent, Ray LaHood, won his district with 70% last time, but still there are those in the area say he's vulnerable.  Unfortunately, those same people seem to think that our guy, Waterworth doesn't have much of a pulse.  They say that if the Democrats fail to win the House by one, this will be the race they really should kick themselves over.
IL-18: Red.

IL19 - Southern portion of state including the rest of Springfield and a lot of farm country.  The red incumbent, John Shimkus, won this seat with 69% in the last election.  Our guy, Danny Stover, has unofficial polling numbers that put him within 5, and, since he is being outraised 20:1, 5 points is really really good.  A dollar goes a long way here, and his positions seem to be in step with his district's, so if he can get an influx late int he game, Stover may pull an upset.  
IL-19: Red for now, let's see what the next 60 days look like.

Originally posted to ultrageek on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 04:13 PM PDT.

Poll

In Illinois, we'll....

2%2 votes
1%1 votes
37%30 votes
26%21 votes
12%10 votes
10%8 votes
1%1 votes
1%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
6%5 votes

| 79 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  From the looks of Hastert (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Elise, llbear

    it won't be long before it s an open seat. I don't wish the guy any harm, but damn it looks like he swallowed a fridge!

    Walking. It's the new driving.

    by Batfish on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 04:08:58 PM PDT

    •  Henry Hyde is no SlimFast model either (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Elise

      and the guy lasted a zillion years.

      -9.50;-6.62. But it don't mean nuttin if you don't put your money where your mouth is

      by ultrageek on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 04:10:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But Denny has a lot more problems (0+ / 0-)

        Have you done any polling lately in IL-14?  John Laesch is gaining a strong foothold in the District.  Right now, it looks like he will take Lee County (where I live).

        The very-to-uber conservatives are pissed off with Hastert's spendthrift ways and I have had a whole lot of questions asked by three of those leaders about Laesch.

        Now here is a prediction by me applies District-wide:

        65% of the Senior Citizens aged 70 and up who vote Republican will vote for John Laesch.  20% of the same group will vote for Hastert. 15% of the same group will stay home.  I expect to be quoted on this - and I am confident that I am correct.

        Now, since you talk with Rahm, please read my signature. I MEAN IT

        Denny Hastert is getting a pass from too many people who should know better

        by llbear on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 01:44:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I didn't say Rahm likes me. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          llbear

          There's a lot I don't like about Rahm, and that's fine.  He didn't seem to like me either during our brief face-to-face tete-a-tete.  

          I said to him exactly what your sig says... except about Mark Kirk.  :)

          That said, I hope you're right about John.  I'm behind him all the way...

          -9.50;-6.62. But it don't mean nuttin if you don't put your money where your mouth is

          by ultrageek on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 02:53:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I had NO idea Stover's numbers were (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    llbear

    putting him SO close!!

    I wonder how accurate they are?

    I met him on Friday and told him he should get tougher...he's been pointing out the failures of govt, but he hasn't been tying Shimkus to those failures specifically enough...

    I'd really like to see him win...he could use some cash though...he needs a little media exposure...

    As for these other races....I think we look pretty good!

    I'd like to see Gill, Laesch, and Duckworth win...Stover and Shannon would be would be nice icing on the cake...

  •  Don Manzullo..... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    llbear

    He's a wingnut idiot who is one of those responsible for getting Alan Keyes to run for Senate here.

    You'd think a guy this fuckin' stupid would have a more competitive campaign this year, wouldn't ya?

    Makes me sick...

    Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? Well, come on, doesn't anybody know!?!?

    by Erik the Red on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 04:39:28 PM PDT

  •  Finally, IL Dkos members all on one page. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    llbear

    Now where G10?

    A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem.- Albert Einstein

    by bldr on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 04:41:39 PM PDT

  •  IL-18 may be a missed opportunity (0+ / 0-)

    this year.  LaHood is somewhat vulnerable this year and has admitted that himself.  He told the Peoria Journal Star that his poll by John Zogby shows he was not getting the support he has received in the past dispite having a totally unfunded, unknown opponent in Waterworth.  

    Waterworth ran in 2004 and received 30%, over 90,000 votes. He ran no campaign and nobody knew him.  All he had was the (D) next to his name on the ballot.  We could have had a race here.

  •  Travelling in IL (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    llbear

    I was in Illinois last week travelling, and it's nice to see a wrap up like this. I went to the Lincoln Presidential Library in Springfield, so saw a lot of those places from Chicago to Bloomington. Sure is flat! Lot's of corn.

    Democrats want better government, government that serves real people and not just those with power and influence. Nevada Appeal, Carson City NV

    by Tuba Les on Wed Sep 06, 2006 at 09:33:18 PM PDT

  •  Congratulations! (0+ / 0-)

    You're a fifth of the way there.

    I say, do some of the one and two-CD states in bunches (AK & HI, ID, MT & WY, ND SD & NB, ME, NH & VT) so you don't fall too far behind.  Probably MA and RI could be done as one entry, since all 12 of those seats are solid incumbent Dem....

    Love this series!

    I'm sick of these motherf%&*ing Republicans in our motherf%&*ing Government!!!

    by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Sep 07, 2006 at 10:00:24 AM PDT

  •  I've got a problem with your analysis of IL-10 (2+ / 0-)

    The district is not VERY affluent. There is a real range in our district. It used to be mainly the North Shore in this  district (Wilmette, Winnetka, Kenilworth, Glencoe, Highland Park, Lake Forest) and that's aflluence. Now, through the wonders of redistricting and Repubs hedging that by grabbing northwestern suburbs, the district has a lot more western content. But guess what, it's trendng Democrat.

    So, remember the town of North Chicago, home to Great Lakes and treated as a second-class outpost by Kirk. Why? Because  he can.

    Next, Waukegan is a mixed community with a sizable and growing Latino population. Was a vibrant city but experienced the big downturn with American industry and manufacturing hitting the skids and there went Waukkegan.Kirk gives lip service to Waukegan. Nothing other than lip service.

    Wheeling is a mixed community with a growing Latino population. So, there's a lot in play.

    So, it's not a Jewish district. By some standard of olde, it may have been a Jewish district. So take back your humbrage and gain the real rage because it's district unrepresented by a guy who doesn't care about us -- his constituents!

    We had a healthy Dem primary. We don't and didn't need Rahm nor anybody else to place a candidate here. We have great homegrown material right here. And, Dan is our man.

    It may be right at this junction where the problem begins. Rahm placed a candidate in a race and he is putting a lot of resources into that race and more into that race and then some more into that race.

    OTOH, the Seals campaign is WHITE HOT and we hear nada from the DCCC. So, it may be a mmmmmmmmmmmaybe to you but it's a throwdown, kick-butt, all-out  volunteer-driven forest fire. And the no-response attitiude from DCCC has been the sound of one hand clapping. Not good but we still have the focus and the stamina.

    •  Agreed golden star! IL-10 is hot! (0+ / 0-)

      I'm a semi-regular volunteer at the Dan Seals campaign.  I help answer the phones now and again.  I can tell you by the migraine I had on Wednesday from keeping up with the phone calls that there is serious momentum going on with this race.  
      New volunteers every day.  Support from Obama and Durbin.  I belong to a nearby DFA chapter in Evanston and they are throwing their support to Dan.  Kos loves us too. Even the local press is helping out.

      If you live on the north side of Chicago in one of the aforementioned safe districts and you've been looking for a place to make a difference, I strongly suggest coming up to Wilmette and get in on the fun!

  •  A few corrections (0+ / 0-)

    Bobby Rush sold us out on net neutrality. Chicago's SouthWest Side isn't a liberal district. Duckworth lives a few blocks outside the district which shouldn't bother Roskam, he ran in the 13th in 1998. As one of his shortlived nomination foes said (DuPage Republicans don't have primary opponents, they're handpicked)"if he loses here he'll probably run in the 14th next." I think Petey hates Springfield.

  •  RE: IL-10 (0+ / 0-)

    With all due respect, I have to disagree with you about IL-10.  Dan Seals is exactly the right candidate for this area.  He's got it all & then some.  I've seen him in action: he treats people from snooty Lake Forest the very same way he treats people from North Chicago or Waukegan -- with utmost the utmost sincerely, respect, & honesty.  He's the kind of person who can fairly represent all the Tenth District constiuents.

    If your comment about Tammy Duckworth running in the Tenth was based on the fact that we've got Fort Sheridan (decommissioned, but housing National Guard/reserves) & Great Lakes Naval Base, that's a very small percentage of the population here.  And just because Mark "Rooster" Kirk is a Navy vet isn't buying him many points here, especially when he votes against providing health benefits to National Guard & Reserves -- not to mention the fact that he has even voted to reduce the health benefits to all vets.  Go figure...

    This is not to say that Tammy isn't a good candidate; she would not have been the right candidate for the Tenth.  She's running in exactly the right district.

    "Overcome anger by love, evil by good, the greedy by generosity, and the liar by truth." - Buddha

    by madame defarge on Sat Sep 09, 2006 at 05:57:25 AM PDT

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