Republican pollster Greg Smith & Associates polled 300 Idahoans last week, and got some remarkable results (from the e-mailed press release):
Grant now leads Sali 22-14%, compared to Sali's 41-25% lead in a July poll, said Greg Smith, President of Greg Smith & Associates.... "The most striking finding from this study, certainly compared to the end-of-July study Greg Smith & Associates executed, is the significant shift in voter sentiment within the 1st Congressional District in just a month or so." Smith said. "The change is so dramatic that a person might wonder if there was some kind of significant methodological differences between the July and late August polls that would account for the change.
"The fact is, though, that other races are at roughly the same levels of support in both polls," Smith said. "The change is clearly a result of changing voter sentiment, not a change in polling methodology."
Digging more deeply into the 1st District numbers, Smith pointed out that Grant's July (25%) and late-August (22%) support are very similar. However, Sali's earlier 41% backing shrank to just 14%, with many who 2 months ago characterized themselves as Sali voters sliding into the undecided ranks, which increased from 34% to 61%.
Just to get a sense of the GOP slant of this pollster, check out the other results from this poll:
2ND DISTRICT: Mike Simpson (R) leads Jim Hansen (D), 61-19%
GOVERNOR: Butch Otter (R) leads Jerry Brady (D), 42-18%
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: Jim Risch (R) leads Larry LaRocco (D), 46-23%
The high number of undecides shows the shift of Sali's loss of support--an incredible 27 points. As word gets out about how out of the mainstream Sali really is, his support tanks. These people might not be quite ready to say they're going to vote Democratic yet, but the strong support of Republicans for Grant will help to quell their unease. Or maybe they'll just choose to sit this race out.
Either way, it's tremendous news for Grant. The campaign confirms that this poll is in line with the its internal polling, so this has shaped up to be a serious race and a very real chance for a Dem pick-up. Help Larry Grant get there.