The Richmond Times-Dispatch has just released a
poll that shows Webb and Allen in a virtual tossup.
More to come. . . .
The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Inc., for the Times-Dispatch, shows Allen ahead of Webb by 4 percentage points, 46 to 42 percent, but the Times-Dispatch notes that "[b]ecause the gap is within the poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error, the contest can be considered a tossup."
The Times-Dispatch's last survey, in July (that would be P.M.--Pre-Macaca), showed Allen leading by 16 percentage points.
The current poll was carried out Tuesday to Thursday of last week among 625 likely voters.
The poll shows that there's room for caution and renewed effort, as well as for encouragement, among Webb supporters.
For example, Webb is still an unknown figure to many likely voters:
Webb, in contrast to the engaging, seasoned Allen, is still unknown to a significant portion of the electorate -- 22 percent, down from 33 percent in July -- but perception of the Republican-turned-Democrat is evolving. His favorable rating has moved from 21 percent to 28 percent; his unfavorable has dipped from 11 percent to 7 percent.
The geography of preference is also noteworthy:
Webb is strongest in Northern Virginia, bulwark of back-to-back Democratic victories for governor. Webb's lead over Allen in the Washington suburbs is 13 percentage points. Hampton Roads, the southeastern terminus of Virginia's vote-rich urban-suburban crescent, is closely contested. Webb is pulling 42 percent to 44 percent for Allen.
Allen is comfortably ahead in the Richmond area, the seat of the state's conservative heartland, and Republican vote troves such as the Shenandoah Valley, Southside and Southwest Virginia.
So, then, Virginia Dems: we do indeed have a real race on our hands. Let's run it to win--because now, it's clear, Jim Webb really can be elected Virginia's next United States senator!