As some of you know, I am an analyst of House races. In addition to my own ratings, I have been keeping track of what the nonpartisan professionals have been saying about individual races. I developed a numerical rubric for arriving at a composite of the analysts' individual ratings. Those used are the Cook Report, Stu Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, Chuck Todd of the National Journal, Roll Call, Congressional Quarterly, the New York Times (prepared by Adam Nagourney), and Chris Cilizza of the Washington Post's blog. I do not use the Evans/Novak ratings, as I view them as less reliable partisans; if I were to include those ratings, I might as well include my own.
Of the handicappers, the Cook Report, CQ, Rothenberg, Sabato, Roll Call use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), the New York Times has only a two-tiered rating system ("tossup" and "leans [party]"), and the National Journal and Cilizza rank the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric. For Todd and Cilizza, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 50 list gets 50 points, #50 gets 1). FWIW, Todd produces a top 50 list, while Cilizza's is only top-20.
For the three-tiered rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean races, and 15 points for likely races (this month, for the first time, some handicappers are putting some GOP seats in lean or even likely Dem. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean Dem, 60 points for a pure lean Dem, and 75 for a likely Dem. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean GOP category). I assigned 40 points for a tossup and 20 for a lean rating under the Times' two-tier system.
I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points. Last month's rankings and totals are in parentheses. Also, since there are slightly more points to be had this time from adding the New York Times, for comparison's sake I give both the numerical score and the percentage of the points a race would have gotten if everyone listed it as a tossup or ranked it #1. Here's what they say 54 days from Election Day:
GOP Seats
Lean Dem (370+)
1. Texas 22 (411 (123%)) (1-306 (104%)) (Nick Lampson (D) vs. Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R-write in)
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Dem (350-369)
2. Iowa 01 (362 (108%)) (3-303 (103%)) (OPEN: Bruce Braley (D) vs. Mike Whalen (R))
3t. Arizona 08 (356 (106%)) (5-296 (100%)) (OPEN: Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Randy Graf (R))
3t. Indiana 08 (356 (106%)) (7-283 (96%)) (Brad Ellsworth (R) vs. Jon Hostettler* (R))
Tossups (250-349)
5. Pennsylvania 06 (343 (102%)) (2-304 (103%)) (Lois Murphy (D) vs. Jim Gerlach* (R))
6. Colorado 07 (342 (102%)) (4-301 (102%)) (OPEN: Ed Perlmutter (D) vs. Rick O'Donnell (R))
7. Indiana 09 (325 (97%)) (6-294 (100%)) (Baron Hill (D) vs. Mike Sodrel* (R))
8. Connecticut 04 (305 (91%)) (8-276 (94%)) (Diane Farrell (D) vs. Chris Shays* (R))
9. New Mexico 01 (303 (90%)) (11-261 (88%)) (Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Heather Wilson* (R))
10. Connecticut 02 (302 (90%)) (9-268 (91%)) (Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rob Simmons* (R))
11. Florida 22 (300 (90%)) (12-250 (85%)) (Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw* (R))
12. Illinois 06 (287 (86%)) (14-239 (81%)) (OPEN: Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R))
13. North Carolina 11 (285 (85%)) (17-220 (75%)) (Heath Shuler (D) vs. Charles Taylor (R))
14t. Indiana 02 (283 (84%)) (18-207 (70%)) (Joe Donnelley (D) vs. Chris Chocola* (R))
14t. Virginia 02 (283 (84%)) (16-227 (77%)) (Phil Kellam (D) vs. Thelma Drake* (R))
16. Ohio 18 (272 (81%)) (10-267 (91%)) (OPEN: Zack Space (D) vs. (likely) Joy Padgett (R))
17. New York 24 (269 (80%)) (15-235 (80%)) (OPEN: Mike Arcuri (D) vs. Ray Meier (R))
18. Ohio 15 (267 (80%)) (21-199 (67%)) (Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Deborah Pryce (R))
19. Kentucky 04 (261 (78%)) (13-241 (82%)) (Ken Lucas (D) vs. Geoff Davis* (R))
Tweeners (230-249)
20. Minnesota 06 (232 (69%)) (20-200 (68%)) (OPEN: Patty Wetterling (D) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R))
Lean Rep (130-204)
21. Pennsylvania 07 (224 (67%)) (19-204 (69%)) (Joe Sestak (D) vs. Curt Weldon* (R))
22. Washington 08 (219 (65%)) (23-192 (65%)) (Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichert* (R))
23. Ohio 01 (216 (64%)) (26t-177 (60%)) (John Cranley (D) vs. Steve Chabot* (R))
24. Pennsylvania 08 (214 (64%)) (22-193 (65%)) (Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick* (R))
25. Connecticut 05 (213 (64%)) (25-179 (61%)) (Chris Murphy (D) vs. Nancy Johnson* (R))
26. Pennsylvania 10 (207 (62%)) (24-183 (62%)) (Chris Carney (D) vs. Don Sherwood* (R))
27. Wisconsin 08 (190 (57%)) (28-171 (58%)) (OPEN: Steve Kagen (D) vs. John Gard (R))
28. New York 20 (189 (56%)) (26t-177 (60%)) (Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. John Sweeney* (R))
29. Arizona 05 (172 (51%)) (29-153 (52%)) (Harry Mitchell* (D) vs. J.D. Hayworth* (R))
30. Texas 23 (158 (47%)) (35-94 (32%)) (Several Dems (D) vs. Henry Bonilla* (R))
Tweeners (130-149)
31. New York 29 (140 (42%)) (30-120 (41%)) (Eric Massa (D) vs. Randy Kuhl* (R))
32. Florida 13 (132 (39%)) (32t-105 (36%)) (OPEN: Christine Jennings (D) vs. Vern Buchanan (R))
Likely Rep (50-129)
33. New Hampshire 02 (118 (35%)) (40-80 (27%)) (Paul Hodes (D) vs. Charles Bass* (R))
34t. Nevada 02 (110 (33%)) (34-97 (33%)) (OPEN: Jill Derby (D) vs. Dean Heller (R))
34t. New Jersey 07 (110 (33%)) (37-90 (31%)) (Linda Stender (D) vs. Mike Ferguson* (R))
34t. New York 19 (110 (33%)) (41t-75 (25%)) (John Hall (D) vs. Sue Kelly* (R))
37. Kentucky 03 (107 (32%)) (31-107 (36%)) (John Yarmuth (D) vs. Anne Northup* (R))
38. Nevada 03 (105 (31%)) (32t-105 (36%)) (Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Jon Porter* (R))
39. New York 25 (100 (30%)) (39-84 (28%)) (Dan Maffei (D) vs. Jim Walsh* (R))
40. Colorado 04 (99 (30%)) (38-86 (29%)) (Angie Paccione (D) vs. Marilyn Musgrave* (R))
41. California 11 (91 (27%)) (36-91 (31%)) (Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Richard Pombo* (R))
42t. Minnesota 01 (90 (27%)) (46-57 (19%)) (Tim Walz (D) vs. Gil Gutknecht* (R))
42t. Wyoming at Large (90 (27%)) (41t-75 (25%)) (Gary Trauner (D) vs. Barbara Cubin* (R))
44t. California 50 (80 (24%)) (44t-60 (20%)) (Francine Busby (D) vs. Brian Bilbray* (R))
44t.Kentucky 02 (80 (24%)) (44t-60 (20%)) (Mike Weaver (D) vs. Ron Lewis* (R))
46. Florida 09 (75 (22%)) (43-63 (21%)) (OPEN: Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R))
47. New York 03 (66 (20%)) (48-51 (17%)) (Dave Mejias (D) vs. Peter King* (R))
48t. Arizona 01 (60 (18%)) (49t-45 (15%)) (Ellen Simon (D) vs. Rick Renzi* (R))
48t. Illinois 10 (60 (18%)) (49t-45 (15%)) (Dan Seals (D) vs. Mark Kirk* (R))
Tweeners (31-49)
50. New Hampshire 01 (49 (15%)) (47-55 (19%)) (Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. Jeb Bradley* (R))
51t. Iowa 02 (45 (13%)) (49t-45 (15%)) (Dave Loebsack (D) vs. Jim Leach* (R))
51t. Florida 08 (45 (13%)) (49t-45 (15%)) (Charlie Stuarte (D) vs. Ric Keller* (R))
51t. Florida 16 (45 (13%)) (49t-45 (15%)) (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Mark Foley* (R))
51t.Minnesota 02 (45 (13%)) (49t-45 (15%)) (Colleen Rowley (D) vs. John Kline* (R))
51t. Ohio 02 (45 (13%)) (55t-30 (10%)) (Victoria Wulsin (D) vs. Jean Schmidt* (R)
56. North Carolina 08 (31 (9%)) (58t-15 (5%)) (Larry Kissell (D) vs. Robin Hayes* (R))
Other races that two of the handicappers listed
57t. California 04 (30 (9%)) (58t-15 (5%)) (Charlie Brown (D) vs. John Doolittle* (R))
57t. Idaho 01 (30 (9%)) (58t-15 (5%)) (OPEN: Larry Grant (D) vs. Bill Sali (R))
57t. Nebraska 01 (30 (9%)) (55t-30 (10%)) (Maxine Moul (D) vs. Jeff Fortenberry* (R))
57t. Pennsylvania 04 (30 (9%)) (58t-15 (5%)) (Jason Altmire (D) vs. Melissa Hart* (R))
57t. West Virginia 02 (30 (9%)) (58t-15 (5%)) (Mike Callaghan (D) vs. Shelley Capito* (R))
Other races that one of the handicappers listed
61t. Louisiana 07 (30 (10%)) (55t-30 (10%)) (Mike Stagg (D) vs. Charles Boustany* (R))
61t. Illinois 11 (15 (5%)) (58t-15 (5%)) (John Pavich (D) vs. Jerry Weller* (R))
61t. Michigan 08 (15 (5%)) (58t-15 (5%)) (Jim Marcinkowski (D) vs. Mike Rogers* (R))
61t. New Jersey 05 (15 (5%)) (58t-15 (5%)) (Paul Aronsohn (D) vs. Scott Garrett* (R))
61t. Washington 05 (15 (5%)) (not ranked-0 (0%)) (Peter Goldmark (D) vs. Cathy McMorris* (R))
Dem Seats
Tossups (250+)
None
Tweeners (230-249)
None
Lean Dem (150-229)
1. Iowa 03 (209 (62%)) (1-196 (66%)) (Leonard Boswell* (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R))
2. Illinois 08 (206 (61%)) (2-189 (64%)) (Melissa Bean* (D) vs. David McSweeney (R))
3. Georgia 12 (197 (59%)) (3-179 (61%)) (John Barrow* (D) vs. Max Burns (R))
4. Vermont at Large (178 (53%)) (9-147 (50%)) (OPEN: Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R))
5. Georgia 08 (174 (52%)) (4-152 (52%)) (Jim Marshall* (D) vs. Mac Collins (R))
6. Texas 17 (170 (51%)) (5-151 (51%)) (Chet Edwards* (D) vs. Van Taylor (R))
7. West Virginia 01 (168 (50%)) (7-149 (51%)) (Alan Mollohan* (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R))
8. Louisiana 03 (166 (50%)) (8-148 (50%)) (Charlie Melancon* (D) vs. Craig Romero (R))
9. Ohio 06 (155 (46%)) (6-150 (51%)) (OPEN: Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R))
Tweeners (130-149)
10. South Carolina 05 (139 (41%)) (10-120 (41%)) (John Spratt* (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R))
Likely Dem (50-129)
11t. Colorado 03 (90 (31%)) (11-90 (31%)) (John Salazar* (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R))
11t. Ohio 13 (90 (31%)) (12t-75 (25%)) (OPEN: Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R))
13. Illinois 17 (78 (23%)) (12t-75 (25%)) (OPEN: Phil Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R))
14t. Kansas 03 (60 (18%)) (15t-45 (15%)) (Dennis Moore* (D) vs. Schwab/Ahner (R))
14t. Utah 02 (60 (18%)) (15t-45 (15%)) (Jim Matheson* (D) vs. LaVar Christensen (R))
14t. Washington 02 (60 (18%)) (14-60 (20%)) (Rick Larsen* (D) vs. Doug Roulstone (R))
17. South Dakota at Large (50 (15%)) (17t-30 (10%)) (Stephanie Herseth* (D) vs. Bruce Whalen (R))
Tweeners (30-44)
18. North Dakota at Large (45 (13%)) (17t-30 (10%)) (Earl Pomeroy* (D) vs. Matt Mechtel (R))
Other races that two of the handicappers listed
19. Indiana 07 (35 (10%)) (20t-15 (5%)) (Julia Carson* (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R))
20t. Louisiana 02 (30 (9%)) (20t-15 (5%)) (Jefferson*/K. Carter/T. Carter/Shepherd (D) vs. Joe Lavigne (R))
20t. Oregon 05 (30 (9%)) (17t-30 (10%)) (Darlene Hooley* (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R))
Other races listed by one handicapper
22t. Hawaii 02 (15 (4%)) (not ranked-0 (0%)) (OPEN: Several Dems (D) vs. Kwananakoa/Hogue (R))
22t. Maryland 03 (15 (4%)) (20t-15 (5%)) (OPEN: John Sarbanes (D) vs. John White (R))
22t. Pennsylvania 12 (15 (4%)) (not ranked-0 (0%)) (John Murtha* (D) (D) vs. Diane Irey (R))
22t. New York 27 (15 (4%)) (not ranked-0 (0%)) (OPEN: Brian Higgins* (D) vs. Michael McHale (R))