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There are six Congressional Districts in Kentucky, five of which are held by Republicans, and the other is held by a Democrat.

KY-1 - Southwestern corner of the state including Paducah.  The reddie, Ed Whitfield, won this district with 67% of the vote.  Our guy is Tom Barlow, who represented the district for a term back in 1992.  He lost his seat in 1994 to Ed Whitfield.  He tried, and failed, to beat Whitfield in 1998.  He garnered 77% of the primary votes, but I think he's got an uphill battle here.    
KY-1: Safe Red.

KY-2 - West Central portion of the state, including Bowling Green.  The red incumbent, Ron Lewis, a Baptist preacher and Christian bookstore owner, won this one with 68%.  Our guy is Fighting Dem Mike Weaver who spent 30 years in the Army, going from Private to Colonel.  Having spent 10 years in the state legislature, this guy is no political novice and his fundraising, while it could be better, sure doesn't suck.  This is a ten point race right now, and if you wanted to throw $20 at Weaver, it's not a bad way to spend $20.
KY-2: Leans Red.

KY-3 - Louisville and suburbs.  The red incumbent, Anne Northrup won this district with 60% of the vote, but Kerry carried with 51%, so it's not as red as it may look.  Our guy, John Yarmuth, is a media guy.  It's a 10 point race, and Barack Obama and Rahm Emanuel are going to bat for him (ar! ar! Louisville humor!).  I think Obama's there tonight.  This one is going to get a lot closer.
KY-3: Red favored, maybe.

KY-4 -  The northernmost portion of the state including Covington.  The red incumbent, Geoff Davis, won this one with 54%, but was 9 points less popular than Bush, who carried the district with 63%.  OK.  Get your mind around this one.  The incumbent.is.9.points.less.favorable.than.Bush.  Is it any wonder that this race is listed as the 11th hottest race by the AFL-CIO?  Our guy, Ken Lucas, served the district three terms in Congress, and is out to take the seat that was his until he left it last go-round.  This race, like IN-9, is going to be the return of the previous occupant.  Right now, Lucas is up by nearly 15 points.
KY-4: Blue Pickup!

KY-5 - Southeast portion of the state.  The red incumbent, Harold Rogers, ran unopposed last time, so beat Bush's 61% handily.  Our guy, Kenneth Stepp, is an attorney, and it's hard to tell a lot more about him.  He is trailing substantially (80/20), but the question is whether he'll be enough of a gadfly to keep Rogers in district and spending his money at home.  
KY-5: Safe Red.

KY-6 - East central region of the state, including Lexington and Frankfort.  The incumbent, Ben Chandler, won this one with 59%, and this district, the only blue one on CQ's map, went for Bush with 58%.  Chandler's red challenger, Elaine Sue Carlson, withdrew saying she "just needed more support".  Fair enough.
KY-6: Safe Blue.

Originally posted to ultrageek on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 03:49 PM PDT.

Poll

How many Blue CDs in Kentucky?

7%4 votes
47%24 votes
31%16 votes
11%6 votes
0%0 votes
1%1 votes

| 51 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

    •  Thanks - great update... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oceanview

      on our KY races...

      I think we've got 3 seats locked for the blue...

      Most national pundits aren't giving Yarmuth much of a chance, but those of us who are local know that while Northup is a formidable politician, her seat is ripe for the picking. Jordan should have beat her (nasty campaign) and Tony Miller wasn't a good candidate. All Yarmuth has to do is match her in the debates and he'll be fine and I actually think he'll trounce her in the debates

  •  Tom Barlow is Haverford College '62 (3+ / 0-)

    one of a series of 3 Haverfordians running this cycle.

    Tom '62  Dem  former Congressman

    Rob Simmons '65 n(R- CT 02) running for reelection, and at this point a slight underdog to retain his seat

    Peter Goldmark '67 Dem running against first termer Cathy McMorris in WA-05.   This should have been an easy R hold, but Goldmark - who got into the campaign late because he had to find someone to run his famr/ranch while he was campaigning - has been outraising McMorris, has prior visibility in the district and statewide, and is proving very effective as a candidate -- of course, he has held statewide appointive office and was twice elected to his local school board.

    Pete was my classmate, and I ran cross-country with Rob -- in fact, saw him in DC recently with a R who will lose, Geoff Davis.

    This is I suppose somewhat trivial except for fellow alums, but realize that when Pete and I entered in the Fall of '63 our class was 130, and the entire college was less than 500.  All 3 men could lose, and all 3 could in theory win.  That 3 men of roughly the same era (Pete and Tom missed overlapping by 2 years) from a total student body in that span of well under 1,000 would be major party candidates for the House is at least to me somewhat interesting.

    Those who can, do. Those who can do more, TEACH!

    by teacherken on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 03:51:20 PM PDT

  •  Odd about Kentucky (0+ / 0-)

    The 1st CD is the most liberal of the six (not saying much for Kentucky, perhaps, but there it is), and the 5th has the lowest per capita income out of all 435 in the nation.  And yet those are the two safest Republican seats this year.  Those hardscrabble mountain men have been electing Rogers since before I began paying attention to politics, although he votes to screw them year after year.

    Love this series!  You've been covering mainly midwest and Rocky Mountain states so far--is that because you think those are where the real battlegrounds are, or are those the regions you know best?

    I'm sick of these motherf%&*ing Republicans in our motherf%&*ing Government!!!

    by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Sep 14, 2006 at 09:16:39 PM PDT

    •  Nope. (0+ / 0-)

      I've had Washington State written for a couple of weeks, I'm just waiting on the primary Tuesday.  I pick states by how many Congressional Districts they have and how long I want to stick around work in the evening.  I do this off-hours so I am not on company time, and my schedule varies enough that sometimes I want to get home a little earlier and sometimes a little later.

      Also, I keep looking at Arkansas and Alabama and Mississippi, but there just doesn't seem to be any movement there, so I don't look forward to doing the research.

      -9.50;-6.62. But it don't mean nuttin if you don't put your money where your mouth is

      by ultrageek on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 07:17:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A lot of boring states to come (0+ / 0-)

        You could cover the rest of New England in one entry.  Except for Vermont and New Hampshire, those are all snoozers with safe Democratic incumbents. Not that I'm complaining....

        Seems to me the most interesting ones you have yet to cover would be Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Arizona in about that order.  In the south, it's mostly about Florida, although post-redistricting Georgia and post-hurricane Louisiana may have some potential wild cards.

        I'm sick of these motherf%&*ing Republicans in our motherf%&*ing Government!!!

        by AdmiralNaismith on Fri Sep 15, 2006 at 09:24:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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