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KY-1 - Southwestern corner of the state including Paducah. The reddie, Ed Whitfield, won this district with 67% of the vote. Our guy is Tom Barlow, who represented the district for a term back in 1992. He lost his seat in 1994 to Ed Whitfield. He tried, and failed, to beat Whitfield in 1998. He garnered 77% of the primary votes, but I think he's got an uphill battle here.
KY-1: Safe Red.
KY-2 - West Central portion of the state, including Bowling Green. The red incumbent, Ron Lewis, a Baptist preacher and Christian bookstore owner, won this one with 68%. Our guy is Fighting Dem Mike Weaver who spent 30 years in the Army, going from Private to Colonel. Having spent 10 years in the state legislature, this guy is no political novice and his fundraising, while it could be better, sure doesn't suck. This is a ten point race right now, and if you wanted to throw $20 at Weaver, it's not a bad way to spend $20.
KY-2: Leans Red.
KY-3 - Louisville and suburbs. The red incumbent, Anne Northrup won this district with 60% of the vote, but Kerry carried with 51%, so it's not as red as it may look. Our guy, John Yarmuth, is a media guy. It's a 10 point race, and Barack Obama and Rahm Emanuel are going to bat for him (ar! ar! Louisville humor!). I think Obama's there tonight. This one is going to get a lot closer.
KY-3: Red favored, maybe.
KY-4 - The northernmost portion of the state including Covington. The red incumbent, Geoff Davis, won this one with 54%, but was 9 points less popular than Bush, who carried the district with 63%. OK. Get your mind around this one. The incumbent.is.9.points.less.favorable.than.Bush. Is it any wonder that this race is listed as the 11th hottest race by the AFL-CIO? Our guy, Ken Lucas, served the district three terms in Congress, and is out to take the seat that was his until he left it last go-round. This race, like IN-9, is going to be the return of the previous occupant. Right now, Lucas is up by nearly 15 points.
KY-4: Blue Pickup!
KY-5 - Southeast portion of the state. The red incumbent, Harold Rogers, ran unopposed last time, so beat Bush's 61% handily. Our guy, Kenneth Stepp, is an attorney, and it's hard to tell a lot more about him. He is trailing substantially (80/20), but the question is whether he'll be enough of a gadfly to keep Rogers in district and spending his money at home.
KY-5: Safe Red.
KY-6 - East central region of the state, including Lexington and Frankfort. The incumbent, Ben Chandler, won this one with 59%, and this district, the only blue one on CQ's map, went for Bush with 58%. Chandler's red challenger, Elaine Sue Carlson, withdrew saying she "just needed more support". Fair enough.
KY-6: Safe Blue.