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The Hall Campaign released results (see link to today's Times Herald-Record story) of its first internal, post-primary (9/12/06) poll. Kelly 49%, Hall 44%. (MOE +/-4%) With background information supplied to the respondent on each candidate, the results shift in Hall's favor, Hall 50%, Kelly 46%.

Conducted by respected, MA-based Abacus Associates, the results are actually completely in line with most local pundits' observations. And, they reflect the phenomenal results of last Tuesday's Primary, where the district witnessed a more than 100% jump in Dem voter turnout versus 2004. More than the 2002 and 2004 Dem turnouts combined, the 19th CD's 2006 Primary results blew out every other result in the state (by far).

[http://www.recordonline.com/...]

You have to love Kelly's spokesperson's (Townsend's) response,  "No independent source has released anything..." If he had stopped right there, this actually would have been an accurate statement coming from the Kelly campaign. In and of itself, somewhat of a milestone. The fact is, this IS the first post-primary poll result, PERIOD.

As this educated observer has been saying all along, NY-19 is a much, much closer race than most outside the 19th CD realize. People inside the district will NOT be surprised.

Originally posted to http://www.dailykos.com/user/bobswern on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 08:31 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  go, john! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dpinzow

    i was just up at the campaign office in beacon the other day and i really loved the energy there. there something special happening up there.

    take 19, yo!

    "joke about the rapture here"

    send NYBri to the NY state senate!

    by lipris on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 08:34:56 AM PDT

  •  internal poll, but (0+ / 0-)

    I have a feeling this is a race to watch.  I think Hall has a better chance to win than Gillenbrand does in NY-20.  Maybe even Massa in NY-29.  The district is less conservative than those districts, and Hall has resources and publicity (Orleans) that the other two don't have.  If the DCCC is funding Gillenbrand, they should be pouring money into this race.

    The Republicans. The party of fear and smear.

    by Paleo on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 08:38:48 AM PDT

  •  welll.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RonK Seattle

    some notes

    1. it's an internal poll - so take a grain of salt.
    1. I always hated "when supplied background information" polls because people aren't gonna have a sheet of paper with background information listed on it when they go to vote.  All they'll see is people's names.
    1. There is really no such thing as a "statistical dead heat" unless the candidates are tied.  Within the margin of error means that, within whatever model they're using (i'd guess 95% confidence level) Kelly's lead isn't really guaranteed.  However, it is still, more likely.

    Kelly could be polling anywhere from 53% to 45% while Hall could be polling anywhere from 49% to 40%.  Obviously there is some overlap there - Hall could be as high as 49% and Kelly as low as 45%.  However, it is just as likely that Kelly has a 13% lead - 53%/40%.

    •  Amen (0+ / 0-)

      This is not a dead heat.  Not even close.  And reasking the question after revealing "background information" smacks of push polling.  Having said that, Hall did an amazing job winning the primary, which means he has a kick ass organization.  If he is within 5 points, this is a winnable race.

      •  The good thing is that (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        exNYinTX, dpinzow

        if this is billed as a dead-heat (as the headline in the newspaper suggested, even it's really not), wouldn't more Democrats make an effort to get to the polls in November because maybe they could be backing a winner this time?

        •  Right. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MrMacMan

          I think this is critical, especially with the Gov and Senate races being such runaways, we got to make sure our folks turn out.  GOTV, people!

          Also, that John is at 44 percent against an incumbant, after entering the race late?  I can smell it folks, we've really got a shot at this one.

    •  44% is plausible for Hall now; look at CONTEXT (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MrMacMan

      For a legitimate, albeit internal, poll to post 44% for Hall today is really very, very plausible given the historical context of Kelly's performance in the 19th CD. Just look at 2004 Kelly General Election results...Opposition (Jaliman) received 34% of the vote spending $60k (next to NOTHING for the entire campaign), against Kelly's $1.2 million...Hall has nothing short of an incredible organization...to give him 10 more points, considering he's already spent many hundreds of thousands of dollars is definitely NOT a stretch. I am NOT taking too many grains of salt with these numbers. It's an independent firm's polling work--granted it is for one of the candidates--and unless that firm plans on this being their last poll, they absolutely must maintain some level of credibility. These are VERY believable numbers folks. Look at them in CONTEXT.

      Enough of this mental masturbation. Get out there and affect something!

      by bobswern on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 01:09:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Very Encouraging (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dpinzow

    I agree that internal polls are not perfect, but the encouraging story here is the huge increase in the number of Dems in NY-19 who got their tails to the polls for the primary. Primaries draw fewer voters than general elections -- especially during the midterms -- so we can hope that even more Dem voters will march to the polls in November.

    I live in a different district. Nita Lowey is our rep. We are all cheering for the Dems in NY-19. John Hall is a good man. We will be ecstatic if he beats Sue Kelly by as little as 1 single vote, but we would love to see him squash her like a grape!

    •  Do more than cheer! (0+ / 0-)

      Since you're close by, why not help on John's campaign? Or help us here at Take19. Cheering is appreciated, but we need boots on the ground.

      Sue and the Republicans will throw everything they can to keep this seat. In their fundraising letters they're already whining about MoveOn, even though MoveOn has no involvement in this race. She has buckets more money than Hall. But that doesn't mean game over.

      BTW...the Kelly spokesman used to be one of Pat Buchanan's top guys and has been quoted as saying that he only represents conservative candidates. So Kelly trying to paint herself as a moderate is beyond amusing.

  •  I think I saw Hall on Montel (0+ / 0-)

    the did a show with that lady Pirro that went down in flames trying to run against Clinton.  If it's the tall guy I remember, he sounded pretty good and will serve your district well.
    The right wing radio host pundit on the show was a fucking asshole.

  •  I like this quote (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MrMacMan

    "Hogwash," Kelly spokesman Jay Townsend said of the poll results. "No independent source has released anything close to this. It is at variance with what we've done internally."

    Well that's because no independent source has released a poll yet, you idiot!

    •  Addendum (0+ / 0-)

      No independent source has released a poll on NY-19 yet.

      That being said, living right next door (literally) to the 19th, I believe Kelly is about 10 points ahead, but that's probably her high-water mark.  Hall can definitely pull an upset here.

      Go John!

  •  Once/if the Hotline (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MrMacMan

    writes up a blurb on the poll, you should email it to the "Breaking Blue" section of MyDD.

  •  Huge news! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dpinzow

    I'm originally a New Yorker -- from lower Westchester County. I worked on Nita Lowey's first congressional campaign -- in the district to the south of Kelly's. Sue Kelly has long had a well-earned reputation as a dim-witted boob. It's not just her politics that are troubling. It's her incompetence and lack of intelligence that fairly cry for her defeat. The people of the 19th deserve a better representative. And Americans need better and smarter people in Congress. It's a true delight to learn that Sue may be on her way out. Shana Tova -- a good year ahead.

    http://fischry.blogspot.com

    "We support your war of terror!" -- Borat Sagdiyev (a/k/a Sacha Baron Cohen)

    by FischFry on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 09:39:38 AM PDT

  •  This Post Must Be For The Eyes... (0+ / 0-)

    ...of people from upstate New York only, because I don't know who TF is who in this post. Democrat? Republican? Incumbent? Open seat?

    "I'll repeat what I said. I truly am not that concerned about him." Bush on Osama-3/13/02

    by chuco35 on Thu Sep 21, 2006 at 09:40:44 AM PDT

    •  not upstate -- mid hudson valley and the dem is (0+ / 0-)

      John Hall.

      Republican is Sue Kelly.
      Sue Kelly is the incumbent who came to congress with the contract with america. She hasn't been properly challanged since.

      John Hall is frm. Musician who won the primary (and beating a DCCC backed candidate) with around 49% of the vote against 3 other candidates.

      There have been no poll numbers yet (this being the first).

      We are hoping to get more support from other organizations like the DCCC so we can take this district for the dems.

      -- MrMacMan

  •  On Internal Polls (0+ / 0-)

    I think people are being TOO optimistic about this poll.  It is not a coincidence that Hall had this poll conducted shortly before meeting with Washington bigwigs (funding).  Internal polls are taken with a grain of salt because the company that conducts it can change any number of variables that get the desired outcome of the campaign - the campaign will usually request "inflated" numbers.  To get said inflated numbers, a polling company can adjust how many Democrats:Republicans are polled, how many men:women are polled, how many people from county A:county B are polled, how many married couples:singles are polled, how many whites:African Americans:Latinos are polled, etc, etc, etc.  Hall's campaign undoubtedly WANTED inflated numbers because of the aforementioned DCCC meetings.  Similarly, there is a reason why all of th crosstabs were not released by the campaign.

    Someone previously mentioned that the poll had to have been taken seriously so the company can maintain credibility.  I completely disagree.  Like I said before, campaigns WANT inflated numbers, so in essence, a unrepresentative poll IS credible, ironic as it may sound.

    This race is far from a dead heat (I'm not going to speculate on where he actually does stand at this point).  That being said, the campaign is very well-run and has good fundraising potential in a marginally Republican district.  The race is winnable, bu right now, it's not nearly as close as this poll paints it out to be.

    •  In historical context, I STRONGLY disagree! (0+ / 0-)

      NY Populist, your concerns, taken out of the context of the race, and outside of the results from recent/previous general elections, may have merit to them. But, as far as this race is concerned, historically, and in the context of recent past results in the 19th CD, are certainly incorrect.

      Michael Jaliman, the 2004 Dem candidate in the 19th CD, garnered 34% of the vote in the general election by doing, essentially, little. He raised a total of $60,000, and did little or no advertising or public relations. On the other hand, Sue Kelly spent $1.2 million.

      To contend that the internal poll in the Hall campaign is inaccurate, showing him with 44% of the vote if the election were held today, considering the situation in the 19th CD race, is not only plausible, but perhaps dead on or conservative. 10 more points than Jaliman's showing in 2004 is NOT a stretch, by any means, considering Hall's spent hundreds of thousands of dollars so far, and his organization is (in this observer's opinion, and many others, too) the best there's been in the past 12 years within the District. This is simply common sense.

      It's VERY EASY to fall back upon traditional thinking here, as long as you ignore the facts. And, I'm not even getting into the PHENOMENAL turnout on the Democratic side in the Primary. That speaks LOADS, in and of itself.

      Everything's fine with the pundit's review of this race--AS LONG AS THEY DON'T LOOK TOO CLOSELY AT IT.

      As I say to others, "Sure, as long as one doesn't let the facts in the way of their perceptions, everything's fine." That comment applies here. VERY MUCH SO.

      We're talking:

      --Record Dem turnout;
      --Best-funded opposition to Kelly ever;
      --Best organized effort against Kelly ever...

      And, you still fall back on a concept which inherently says Hall's not in a position now to have 10 more points than then next-best-thing to NO OPPOSITION in 2004???? I'm sorry, I'm not buying it.

      Besides, Abacus Associates is a recognized firm! The "typical-b.s.-from-a-campaign" argument, in this situation--considering the RESULTS of the Poll, the situation in the campaign today, and this history of this CD's voting--simply does NOT apply.

      I vehemently disagree with your observations, NYPopulist. Farrrrr too many indicators support my side here...as long as you look at the details relating to the circumstances of this situation. 44% sure appears to be a middle-of-the-road assessment to me.  

      Enough of this mental masturbation. Get out there and affect something!

      by bobswern on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 10:27:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Few points (0+ / 0-)

        Michael Jaliman, who I believe resides in Woodbury like myself, was a no-name candidate like you mentioned.  As a result, there is no question in my mind that nearly 100% of his 34% of the vote came from Democrats (the district breakdown is about that same percentage of registered Dems).  Considering that Hall campaigned, I assume, almost exclusively to Democrats pre-primary, it is not out of the question that Hall's actual support actually lies in about the same range that Jaliman pulled.  If I had to guess, Hall's actual support is probably in the high-30's right now.  

        The turnout that you mention, which is very relevant, could be a result of a number of things (mostly a combination of them all).  First, there were high-profile - even if uncompetitive - Democratic primaries in the Governor, Senate, and AG races.  This undoubtedly contributed to atleast part of the 100% increase in turnout.  Likewise, there were FOUR candidates in the NY-19 primary.  Only 49% of Democrats supported John Hall (I shouldn't say only, being that 49% in a 4-way race is impressive) meaning that 51% of all other Democrats supported someone else.  Most of those Dems will undoubtedly support Hall in the general, but I wouldn't be surprised if a number of Aydelott's supporters are not enthusiastic about John Hall being the nominee.

        I strongly believe Hall has not yet cracked the 40's.

        •  But, your comments have no substantiation at all. (0+ / 0-)

          NY Populist. There's a poll, albeit an internal poll, but by a CREDIBLE group of respected pollsters. You don't believe it's legitimate because you fall back on the traditional arguments, which simply don't apply here, due to basic facts. You do nothing to substantiate your claims other than to fall back upon conjecture!

          Facts: 1.) money spent, 2.) Dem interest, 3.) and record turnout in THE DISTRICT and way more than any other CD in NY State too (this has nothing to do with statewide campaigns--it's JUST this district), and 4.) great organization.

          That's worth 10 pts. over Jaliman's 2004 effort, EASILY.

          But, NY Populist, do not forget to let your readership know you were strongly supporting another candidate up through Primary day.

          I have presented a SOLID case, based upon facts, as to why Hall's poll numbers are quite credible.

          You respond with unsubstantiated conjecture, and a predisposition to (potentially) sour grapes, due to your strong support of a losing candidate in the primary.

          OBJECTIVE observers would confirm my commentary here, NY Populist!

          Enough of this mental masturbation. Get out there and affect something!

          by bobswern on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 12:05:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sigh... (0+ / 0-)

            You apparently ignored everything I said in my previous two posts which provided FACTS for 1) why there was record turnout and 2) why Hall is more likely in the high 30's than at 44%.  Also, if you're going to slander me, at least do your homework.  Yes, I supported Shuldiner during the primary, but you fail to notice that I fully endorsed John Hall the very night that Shuldiner lost.

            Let me reiterate - the statewide races played a significant role on turnout.  In 2004 there was no Governor's primary and no Senate primary.  You are very naive to think that turnout had "nothing" to do with the statewide campaigns - anyone would concede that it played a factor (some may think more than others).

            And as of right now, no, the reasons you stated are not worth 10 points over Jaliman right now.  Yes more money spent, yes more Dem interest, yes higher turnout, and yes great organization - I agree 100% with all four of those statements.  What you have failed to realize despite my repeating over and over again is that all four of those have been almost exclusively focused on the Democrats in the district.  That is why Hall is not yet polling 44%.

            You also seemingly ignored my analysis of internal polls.  I don't deny that Abacus is a reputable firm.  If you are so certain (which I can't understand why your certainty is so unrelenting), why didn't the Hall campaign release all of the crosstabs?  It's for the exact reason I told you before: while conducting internal polls, firms tweak the crosstabs ever so slightly to achieve the desired results of the campaign.  Again, it is no coincidence that the poll was released right before Hall was meeting with the DCCC.

            Despite what I type, I am actually quite optimistic about this race - I think it has the potential and will be competitive when all is said and done.  But as of right now, this race is not within five points 10 days after the primary.

            And for the love of God, stop with the caps - I can read your comments fine without them.

            •  I read everything you wrote, NY Populist... (0+ / 0-)

              There's a poll. (This is a fact.) Point A.

              You don't believe it. (This is a fact.) Point B.

              You say the result is more like in the high 30's. This is totally unsubstantiated speculation. It's something totally contrived in your own mind. There are no facts. Therefore, there is no "Point C." You just go right off a cliff, and you sound annoyed when others don't follow?!?

              2004 was a Presidential election year. This is a mid-term election. By definition, Presidential-year elections generate more turnout than mid-terms. Yet, this mid-term result in the 19th CD was phenomenal.

              The huge turnout, at more than 100% over the previous primary turnout, in 2004, is especially notable when you compare it to the turnout results in the other NY congressional districts last week. No other district came even remotely close to this. Hence, this clearly had to do with LOCAL turnout organization work within the 19th Congressional District ONLY.

              Let's talk about certainty. What you're claiming you're "certain" about is totally unsubstantiated by any fact here, NYPopulist. Yet, you state it as if you have some omniscient knowledge of public opinion within the 19th CD? Gosh, perhaps the candidates should all save themselves a lot of time and money and just hire you to have them give you the numbers within your head as you see it.

              That would save everyone so much money. What a gig that would be, huh?

              Do you possess some magical knowledge here, or are you willing to admit that you have no way of supporting your claims other than by positioning your comments falsely? Where are your facts? Upon what factual information do you base your comments? The fact that there was only limited information in the article?

              Could you help me pick out my Lotto Numbers this week! That'd be wonderful!

              I do give up....really...this is absurd.

              Enough of this mental masturbation. Get out there and affect something!

              by bobswern on Fri Sep 22, 2006 at 02:07:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Get a life (0+ / 0-)

                I responded to each of your "facts" point by point, yet you refuse to do the same and instead merely claim that all of my comments are "ubsubstantiated," and attempt to mock me and sound rediculous while you're at it.

                You are clearly a John Hall hack, whether it be someone on his staff or just an insane supporter - evidenced by the fact that 100% of your comments and 100% of your diaries have been about John Hall.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that is a FACT.

                This is the last time I'm going to dignify you with a response - you are clearly nothing more than a childish, egotistical, "my way or the highway" person.  Good day.

                •  calm down you two. we all support the same guy!! (0+ / 0-)

                  okay so one person thinks the polls are a little liberal because they wanted to impress the big fish.

                  one person thinks the polls are spot on because of record turnout, organanization, etc.

                  WHO CARES?

                  Everyone in this discussion is a big Hall supporter and i really don't care who is right!

                  I mean really guys the polls may or may not be correct.

                  All that really matters is we have a great candidate here who has a great shot of defeating Kelly no matter where they are at right now.

                  -- MrMacMan

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