The Hall Campaign released results (see link to today's Times Herald-Record story) of its first internal, post-primary (9/12/06) poll. Kelly 49%, Hall 44%. (MOE +/-4%) With background information supplied to the respondent on each candidate, the results shift in Hall's favor, Hall 50%, Kelly 46%.
Conducted by respected, MA-based Abacus Associates, the results are actually completely in line with most local pundits' observations. And, they reflect the phenomenal results of last Tuesday's Primary, where the district witnessed a more than 100% jump in Dem voter turnout versus 2004. More than the 2002 and 2004 Dem turnouts combined, the 19th CD's 2006 Primary results blew out every other result in the state (by far).
You have to love Kelly's spokesperson's (Townsend's) response, "No independent source has released anything..." If he had stopped right there, this actually would have been an accurate statement coming from the Kelly campaign. In and of itself, somewhat of a milestone. The fact is, this IS the first post-primary poll result, PERIOD.
As this educated observer has been saying all along, NY-19 is a much, much closer race than most outside the 19th CD realize. People inside the district will NOT be surprised.