I have been keeping close track of the battle for the House. In addition to my own race ratings, I also have been doing a running composite of the non-partisan professional analysts' ratings. In that group are eight separate sources: the Cook Report (prepared by Amy Walter), Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call, Congressional Quarterly, National Journal (prepared by Chuck Todd and Josh Kraushaar), the New York Times (prepared by Adam Nagourney), and the Washington Post's blog (prepared by Chris Cilizza).
I posted my most recent compilation on September 14:
http://www.dailykos.com/.... Since then, there have been updates to the National Journal, Roll Call, Sabato, and Cook Report ratings, so I did a new update.
Of the handicappers, the Cook Report, CQ, Rothenberg, Sabato, Roll Call use a three-tier rating system ("tossup" or "no clear favorite"; "leans [party]"; and "likely [party]" or "[party] favored"), the New York Times has only a two-tiered rating system ("tossup" and "leans [party]"), and the National Journal and Cilizza rank the seats without providing a tiered rating. Thus, to combine the two methods, I created a numerical rubric. For Todd and Cilizza, I simply assigned a point score inverting the rankings (i.e. #1 in a top 50 list gets 50 points, #50 gets 1). FWIW, Todd produces a top 50 list, while Cilizza's is only top-20.
For the three-tiered rating services, I assigned 45 points for tossup races, 30 for lean races, and 15 points for likely races (this month, for the first time, some handicappers are putting some GOP seats in lean or even likely Dem. I used 53 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean Dem, 60 points for a pure lean Dem, and 75 for a likely Dem. I also used 37 for Rothenberg's tossup/lean GOP category). I assigned 40 points for a tossup and 20 for a lean rating under the Times' two-tier system.
I present the composites both in terms of tiered rating and ranked by total points.
This week, I did something different: I combined the two parties' lists, so this is a single list of all seats ranked in order of likelihood of party change. This is the format that the National Journal uses, and it allows you to compare the relative vulnerability of the two parties' seats. Of note is the fact that the first Dem seat appears at #27, meaning that there are 26 GOP seats more likely to flip than the most vulnerable Dem seat. Anyway, enjoy. Last week's point totals are in parentheses for comparison. Here's what they say 43 days from Election Day:
Lean Takeover (370+)
1. Texas 22 (OPEN R) (395) (411) (Nick Lampson (D) vs. Shelly Sekula-Gibbs (R-write in)
2. Arizona 08 (OPEN R) (390) (356) (Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Randy Graf (R))
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Takeover (350-369)
3. Iowa 01 (OPEN R) (375) (362) (Bruce Braley (D) vs. Mike Whalen (R))
4. Colorado 07 (OPEN R) (358) (342) (Ed Perlmutter (D) vs. Rick O'Donnell (R))
5. Indiana 08 (Hostettler (R)) (355) (356) (Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Jon Hostettler* (R))
Tossups (250-349)
6. Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach (R)) (342) (343) (Lois Murphy (D) vs. Jim Gerlach* (R))
7. Indiana 09 (Sodrel (R)) (325) (325) (Baron Hill (D) vs. Mike Sodrel* (R))
8t. Connecticut 04 (Shays (R)) (304) (305) (Diane Farrell (D) vs. Chris Shays* (R))
8t. New Mexico 01 (Wilson (R)) (304) (303) (Patricia Madrid (D) vs. Heather Wilson* (R))
10. North Carolina 11 (Taylor (R)) (303) (285) (Heath Shuler (D) vs. Charles Taylor (R))
11. Connecticut 02 (Simmons (R)) (302) (302) (Joe Courtney (D) vs. Rob Simmons* (R))
12. Florida 22 (Shaw (R)) (299) (300) (Ron Klein (D) vs. Clay Shaw* (R))
13. Indiana 02 (Chocola (R)) (298) (283) (Joe Donnelley (D) vs. Chris Chocola* (R))
14. Illinois 06 (OPEN R) (287) (287) (Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R))
15. Virginia 02 (Drake (R)) (284) (283) (Phil Kellam (D) vs. Thelma Drake* (R))
16. Ohio 18 (OPEN R) (283) (272) (Zack Space (D) vs. Joy Padgett (R))
17. New York 24 (OPEN R) (272) (269) (Mike Arcuri (D) vs. Ray Meier (R))
18. Ohio 15 (Pryce (R)) (267) (267) (Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Deborah Pryce (R))
19. Kentucky 04 (Davis (R)) (262) (261) (Ken Lucas (D) vs. Geoff Davis* (R))
Tweener, Tossup to Lean Hold (230-249)
20. Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon (R)) (242) (224) (Joe Sestak (D) vs. Curt Weldon* (R))
21. Washington 08 (Reichert (R)) (236) (219) (Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichert* (R))
22. Minnesota 06 (OPEN R) (231) (232) (Patty Wetterling (D) vs. Michelle Bachmann (R))
Lean Hold (150-229)
23. Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood (R)) (222) (207) (Chris Carney (D) vs. Don Sherwood* (R))
24. Ohio 01 (Chabot (R)) (215) (216) (John Cranley (D) vs. Steve Chabot* (R))
25. Connecticut 05 (Johnson (R)) (211) (213) (Chris Murphy (D) vs. Nancy Johnson* (R))
26. Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick (R)) (209) (214) (Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick* (R))
27. Illinois 08 (Bean (D)) (206) (206) (Melissa Bean* (D) vs. David McSweeney (R))
28. Iowa 03 (Boswell (D)) (204) (209) (Leonard Boswell* (D) vs. Jeff Lamberti (R))
29. Georgia 12 (Barrow (D)) (197) (197) (John Barrow* (D) vs. Max Burns (R))
30. Wisconsin 08 (OPEN R) (195) (190) (Steve Kagen (D) vs. John Gard (R))
31. New York 20 (Sweeney (R)) (186) (189) (Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. John Sweeney* (R))
32. Vermont at Large (OPEN D) (177) (178) (Peter Welch (D) vs. Martha Rainville (R))
33t. Arizona 05 (Hayworth (R)) (175) (172) (Harry Mitchell* (D) vs. J.D. Hayworth* (R))
33t. Georgia 08 (Marshall (D)) (175) (174) (Jim Marshall* (D) vs. Mac Collins (R))
35. Texas 23 (172) (158) (Several Dems (D) vs. Henry Bonilla* (R))
36. Texas 17 (Edwards (D)) (170) (170) (Chet Edwards* (D) vs. Van Taylor (R))
37. West Virginia 01 (Mollohan (D)) (168) (168) (Alan Mollohan* (D) vs. Chris Wakim (R))
38. Ohio 06 (OPEN D) (155) (155) (Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Chuck Blasdel (R))
39. New York 29 (Kuhl (R)) (154) (140) (Eric Massa (D) vs. Randy Kuhl* (R))
Tweeners, Lean Hold to Likely Hold (130-149)
40. Louisiana 03 (Melancon (D)) (146) (166) (Charlie Melancon* (D) vs. Craig Romero (R))
41. South Carolina 05 (Spratt (D)) (135) (139) (John Spratt* (D) vs. Ralph Norman (R))
42. Florida 13 (OPEN R) (130) (132) (Christine Jennings (D) vs. Vern Buchanan (R))
Likely Hold (50-129)
43. New Hampshire 02 (Bass (R)) (122) (118) (Paul Hodes (D) vs. Charles Bass* (R))
44. Nevada 02 (OPEN R) (118) (110) (Jill Derby (D) vs. Dean Heller (R))
45. Colorado 04 (Musgrave (R)) (116) (99) (Angie Paccione (D) vs. Marilyn Musgrave* (R))
46. New York 19 (Kelly (R)) (112) (110) (John Hall (D) vs. Sue Kelly* (R))
47. New Jersey 07 (Ferguson (R)) (110) (110) (Linda Stender (D) vs. Mike Ferguson* (R))
48. Kentucky 03 (Northup (R)) (109) (107) (John Yarmuth (D) vs. Anne Northup* (R))
49t. Nevada 03 (Porter (R)) (105) (105) (Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Jon Porter* (R))
49t. Wyoming at Large (Cubin (R)) (105) (90) (Gary Trauner (D) vs. Barbara Cubin* (R))
51t. Colorado 03 (Salazar (D)) (95) (90) (John Salazar* (D) vs. Scott Tipton (R))
51t. New York 25 (Walsh (R)) (95) (100) (Dan Maffei (D) vs. Jim Walsh* (R))
51t. Ohio 13 (OPEN D) (95) (90) (Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R))
54. California 11 (Pombo (R)) (89) (91) (Jerry McNerney (D) vs. Richard Pombo* (R))
55. Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht (R)) (87) (90) (Tim Walz (D) vs. Gil Gutknecht* (R))
56. Illinois 17 (OPEN D) (78) (78) (Phil Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R))
57. Florida 09 (OPEN R) (75) (75) (Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R))
58t. California 50 (Bilbray (R) (65) (80) (Francine Busby (D) vs. Brian Bilbray* (R))
58t. Kentucky 02 (Lewis (R) (65) (80) (Mike Weaver (D) vs. Ron Lewis* (R))
60t. Arizona 01 (Renzi (R)) (60) (60) (Ellen Simon (D) vs. Rick Renzi* (R))
60t. Illinois 10 (Kirk (R)) (60) (60) (Dan Seals (D) vs. Mark Kirk* (R))
60t. New York 03 (King (R)) (60) (66) (Dave Mejias (D) vs. Peter King* (R))
60t. Washington 02 (Larsen (D)) (60) (60) (Rick Larsen* (D) vs. Doug Roulstone (R))
65. South Dakota at Large (Herseth (D)) (50) (50) (Stephanie Herseth* (D) vs. Bruce Whalen (R))
Tweeners, Likely to Safe Hold (31-49)
66t. Florida 08 (Keller (R)) (45) (45) (Charlie Stuart (D) vs. Ric Keller* (R))
66t. Florida 16 (Foley (R)) (45) (45) (Tim Mahoney (D) vs. Mark Foley* (R))
66t. Iowa 02 (Leach (R)) (45) (45) (Dave Loebsack (D) vs. Jim Leach* (R))
66t. Kansas 03 (Moore (D)) (45) (60) (Dennis Moore* (D) vs. Chuck Ahner (R))
66t. Minnesota 02 (Kline (R)) (45) (45) (Colleen Rowley (D) vs. John Kline* (R))
66t. Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry (R)) (45) (30) (Maxine Moul (D) vs. Jeff Fortenberry* (R))
66t. Ohio 02 (Schmidt (R)) (45) (45) (Victoria Wulsin (D) vs. Jean Schmidt* (R)
66t. Utah 02 (Matheson (D)) (45) (60) (Jim Matheson* (D) vs. LaVar Christensen (R))
74. Indiana 07 (Carson (D)) (35) (35) (Julia Carson* (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R))
Other races that two of the handicappers listed
75t. California 04 (Doolittle (R)) (30) (30) (Charlie Brown (D) vs. John Doolittle* (R))
75t. Idaho 01 (OPEN R) (30) (30) (Larry Grant (D) vs. Bill Sali (R))
75t. New Hampshire 01 (Bradley (R)) (30) (49) (Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. Jeb Bradley* (R))
75t. North Carolina 08 (Hayes (R)) (30) (31) (Larry Kissell (D) vs. Robin Hayes* (R))
75t. North Dakota at Large (Pomeroy (D)) (30) (45) (Earl Pomeroy* (D) vs. Matt Mechtel (R))
75t. Oregon 05 (Hooley (D)) (30) (30) (Darlene Hooley* (D) vs. Mike Erickson (R))
81. Pennsylvania 04 (Hart (R)) (16) (30) (Jason Altmire (D) vs. Melissa Hart* (R))
Other races that one of the handicappers listed
82t. Louisiana 02 (Jefferson (D)) (15) (30) (Jefferson*/K. Carter/T. Carter/Shepherd (D) vs. Joe Lavigne (R))
82t. Louisiana 07 (Boustany (R)) (15) (15) (Mike Stagg (D) vs. Charles Boustany* (R))
82t. Maryland 03 (OPEN D) (15) (15) (John Sarbanes (D) vs. John White (R))
82t. Michigan 08 (Rogers (R)) (15) (15) (Jim Marcinkowski (D) vs. Mike Rogers* (R))
82t. New Jersey 05 (Garrett (R)) (15) (15) (Paul Aronsohn (D) vs. Scott Garrett* (R))
82t. New York 26 (Reynolds (R)) (15) (0) (Jack Davis (D) vs. Tom Reynolds* (R))
82t. Virginia 10 (Wolf (R)) (15) (0) (Judy Feder (D) vs. Frank Wolf* (R))
82t. Washington 05 (McMorris (R)) (15) (15) (Peter Goldmark (D) vs. Cathy McMorris* (R))
82t. West Virginia 02 (Capito (R)) (15) (30) (Mike Callaghan (D) vs. Shelley Capito* (R))