Cross-posted from Calitics: the progressive community blog for California.
The Defenders of Wildlife, who are doing the only polling in the district, released their poll. I've not been able to find a link, other than the email they sent out. Keep in mind that the likely voter model in congressional districts is really tough. Additionally, this is a rapidly changing district, with many commuters from the Bay Area moving into the district. Finally, this poll has a large MoE at 4.9%. But, all those caveats aside, McNerney holds a small lead over the long-time Congressman from Tracy at 48-46.
Full details of the poll from the Defenders of Wildlife email on the flip.
UPDATE: You can get involved at Defender's of Wildlife's Day of Action on October 7 (this saturday). The Pombo/McNerney Forum, the only "debate" will be tomorrow! Also, you can give Jerry a few bucks on the Calitics' ActBlue Page.
Candidate |
May 2006 |
September 2006 |
Jerry McNerney |
46 |
48 |
Richard Pombo |
42 |
46 |
Undecided |
12 |
6 |
That is great news,as Pombo still has higher name ID. It appears that Pombo's name is linked to oil, lobbyists, and "corportate interests". 6 Weeks left, and the DoW has been working hard to make this a real pick-up opportunity for the Dems. The race is listed in Chris' Tier 2 in the
MyDD House Forecast, but I think this race is tighter than the media thinks it is. As I said earlier, this is a rapidly changing district. More Dem-friendly voters are heading east from the Bay Area. This year is a great opportunity for this district. A "moderate" Republican, ie McCain, could have some coattails in this district. This is the year to get rid of a true impediment to progressive causes, he is anti-environment and pro-corruption. It's a bad combination and he's a bad Congressman for CA-11.
From The Defenders of Wildlife e-mail
1. Pombo Trails McNerney in New CA-11 Tracking Poll by Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund
In an election cycle where voters are looking for change and incumbent Congressmen are in trouble across the country, that trend is clearly evident in California's 11th Congressional district. Based on a recent survey conducted among likely voters in California's 11th Congressional District,[i] Republican Congressman Richard Pombo remains unpopular with voters and continues to be in real jeopardy of losing his seat. With less than six weeks left to go before Election Day and only two weeks before absentee ballots are mailed, Pombo continues to trail his Democratic opponent, Jerry McNerney, in a head-to-head vote. Furthermore, voters dislike Pombo personally and many believe he puts corporate interests over the public interests.
Despite being heavily outspent by Pombo and getting attacked in recent weeks, Jerry McNerney has successfully maintained his lead over Pombo since the last poll we conducted in May for Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund. Currently, McNerney garners the support of nearly half the electorate (48 percent) and continues to lead Pombo, who only attracts 46 percent of the vote. The race is essentially unchanged from our May survey, though there are now even fewer undecided voters (only 6 percent), leaving Pombo with very little room to increase his support.
11th CD Vote Over Time
May 2006
September 2006
Jerry McNerney (D)
46%
48%
Richard Pombo (R)
42%
46%
Undecided
12%
6%
The main reason voters are not supporting Pombo is because they fundamentally do not like him on a personal level. Virtually all voters in the district now know who he is (91 percent name identification). A plurality of all voters in the district have an unfavorable opinion of Pombo (45 percent unfavorable) whereas only a third (36 percent) have a favorable opinion of their Congressman. In addition, there are nearly twice as many voters who strongly dislike Pombo than who like him a lot (40 percent to 22 percent). Voters also have overwhelmingly negative opinions of Pombo on specific attributes:
· A solid majority of voters believes Pombo "puts corporate interests over the people's interests" (52 percent say this describes him well, with 35 percent saying it describes him very well, and 33 percent say it does not describe him well);
· Voters also believe Pombo "is too close to lobbyists" (46 percent describes him well, 29 percent does not describe him well); and
· Voters think Pombo "is too close to oil and gas companies" (43 percent well, 31 percent not well).
In sum, this poll shows that Pombo remains in poor standing with voters in his district. Voters in California's 11th Congressional district do not like their Congressman. As a result, they continue to support the Democratic challenger over the incumbent. With time running out, Pombo is in real jeopardy of losing his seat.
Survey Methodology: From September 24-26, 2006, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted a survey by telephone among 413 likely voters in California Congressional District 11. The survey's margin of error is approximately plus or minus 4.9 percent.