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This year New York can help turn the Congress Democratic with what I believe are five great pick up opportunities in the state.  Republicans in NY have no reason to go to the polls.  A strong Democratic get out the vote effort can provide 33% of the needed seats to retake the house.  I will explain why after the jump.

It is a forgone conclusion that Eliot Spitzer will be the next governor.  The race will not even be close.  Hillary likewise will win in a landslide against the former Mayor of Yonkers.  John Spencer is running as the family values candidiate even though his current wife was his former chief of staff and mistress and they had children out of wedlock.  Next comes Andrew Cuomo who would have had the toughest race against Jeanine Pirro.  Her campaign has imploded over recent allegations of attempts to illegally wiretap her own husband with the help of Bernie Kerrick (Yes that Bernie).  There is now no reason for any Republicans to come out and vote.  

District 19 is not on any rader screens but John Hall is running a great campaign in this district against incumbent Sue Kelly.  This is a district in transition with many people from the NYC area moving up to such towns as Middletown and the gay community moving into the Hudson Valley.  John Hall is a former musician with many famous friends and has Sue Kelly on the ropes for the first time in her career.  John is a great campaigner and this race is very winnable.

District 20 is currently held by Republican John Sweeney.  His opponent is Kristen Gillibrand who is also running a great campaign.  This district includes the cities of Glens Falls and Hudson.  Glens Falls is a former manufacturing city that now has many abandoned storefronts and needs new industry.  Hudson has become a place known for gay men to move from the NYC area.  John Sweeney has recently made the list of the 20 most corrupt Congressman by the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.  That latest revelation has made this a race to watch.

District 24 is an open seat due to the retirement of Sherwood Boehlert.  Mike Arcuri is the Oneida District Attorney and the Democratic candidiate in this race.  This race has been highlighted by the Democratic Red to Blue Program and with low Republican voter turnout this could be a decent pick up opportunity.

District 25 is currently held by Tom Reynolds.  His opponent is Jack Davis and this is a rematch from 2004. Tom Reynolds is curently deeply involved in the Foley scandal and that fact moves this race into a more competitive position.

District 29 is currently held by John Kuhl.  His opponent this cycle is Eric Massa.  Eric is the democratic candidate. With only five weeks left until Election Day, a new poll shows retired Navy Commander Eric Massa tied with freshman Republican incumbent Randy Kuhl in the race to represent New York's 29th District in Congress. The poll was conducted in late September by the nationally respected firm Cooper & Secrest Associates of Washington, DC.

New York represents a great opportunity for the Democrats.  With a strong get out the vote operation in the state these seats can provide 33% of what is necessary to gain back the house.

Originally posted to jga150 on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 07:22 AM PDT.

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