Haven't diaried in a while - too busy writing code - but I'm a daily lurker at several sites - D-Kos being one of the major ones - and I haven't seen anyone mention this site:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
The site is run, amazingly enough, by a pretty famous guy in the world of Computer Science - Dr. Andrew S. Tanenbaum. Dr. Tanenbaum is the author of what can only be considered the seminal works on the subjects of Computer Networking and Operating Systems.
However, in 2004 he started the site mentioned above - anonymously - and using a fairly straightforward algorithm and a multitude of polls, accurately predicted the final electoral totals of the 2004 Presidential election. After the election was over, he revealed his actual identity. (Up until that day he was simply known as "The Votemaster" - a self-annoited moniker he still uses today!!)
A few months ago he updated the site, and began to again collate polling data - focusing mainly on the Senate races. In the last few weeks however, he began to focus some attention on the House races in addition to continuing to update the Senate totals.
Today - for the first time - his polling algorithms indicate that the House would be back under Democratic control - were the elections to be held today. Some cause for rejoicing to this lowly software engineer.
Obviously, even though he continues to accumulate an amazing amount of polling data, House and Senate races are a lot more volatile, and consequently much more difficult to predict based purely on such data. However, I have faith in both his accuracy and his algorithms, and thus, I have some modicum of hope that his prediction actually reflect reality.
There is actually quite a bit of useful information on his site in addition to the polls. I've found it interesting just to browse through some of the links.
I'm not affiliated with Dr. Tanenbaum in any way - beyond being an admirer - but I have found his polling site useful, and entertaining, and I thought I'd share it with those of you not already aware of it's existence.