CO-05: Fawcett's incredible poll showing
by kos
Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 07:36:42 AM PDT
In 2004, George Bush won Colorado's 5th CD with 66 percent of the vote. He got 190,190 votes. Kerry got a measly 93,684. It's not the sort of vote differential that gives high hopes for a Democratic House win in 2006.
But Democrat Jay Fawcett has been plugging away, and he was lucky enough to be paired off against crazy Doug Lamborn (see YouTube below). He's so crazy, in fact, that outgoing Rep. Joel Heffley has urged people to not vote for Lamborn and briefly flirted with a write-in campaign to try and head off Lamborn.
Amidst all this drama, the Denver Post has produced a shocking poll by top pollster Mason-Dixon.
Mason-Dixon. 10/3-7. Registered voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)
Lamborn (R) 37
Fawcett (D) 37
Republicans
Lamborn (R) 61
Fawcett (D) 14
Democrats
Lamborn (R) 5
Fawcett (D) 76
Independents
Lamborn (R) 27
Fawcett (D) 39
Fawcett didn't go on the air with his first ads until after this poll was taken. Lamborn has been up for a while.
Jon Hotaling, campaign manager for Lamborn, said the poll is flawed and skewed toward Democrats. He said internal polls show Lamborn has a "healthy" lead in the race, though he would not say how the polls are different because he "doesn't want Republicans to get complacent and not vote."
Pollsters interviewed 47 percent Republicans, 27 percent independents and 26 percent Democrats. Secretary of state records show that as of September, the district was 46 percent Republican, 32 percent unaffiliated and 22 percent Democratic.
"It polls too many Democrats and not enough unaffiliated voters. Our own internal polling shows that Doug has a healthy lead in this race and that we're going to continue working hard toward Election Day," Hotaling said.
Pollster Brad Coker said the poll was of likely voters, which varies from actual voter-registration numbers.
"Whether the Republican/ Democrat ratio is 47/26 or 46/22, it would only change the total point spread about a point - well within the margin for error," he said.
The Lamborn campaign won't release its internal numbers because they suck.
As for that "crazy Lamborn moment" I promised, here it is, from this last Friday's debate between Fawcett and Lamborn.
No wonder prominent Republican in the 5th are running away far, far away from him. Check out this diary on the debate if you want more context for that outburst. You want another Lamborn-ism from that debate?
Moderator: Let’s talk about the War in Iraq. What is your specific plan to win the War? Doug Lamborn will go first.
Lamborn: Can he go first? I went first last time!
Moderator: Uh… sure.
[While Jay Fawcett discusses a pretty comprehensive strategy to train the Iraqis to defend themselves while keeping American casualties low, Lamborn is writing furiously — apparently, he hadn’t given a whole lot of thought to the “how do we win the war” kind of question. Who knew they’d ask about Iraq?]
Here's Fawcett's ad. Remember that CO-05 is home of the Air Force Academy and is crawling with servicemembers and vets and those whose livelihood depends on their presence.
The campaign claims this is the first Democratic TV ad aired in this district ever. Help Fawcett:
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