You'll have to excuse Congresswoman Capito (R, WV-02) if she's looking out of sorts today. She's got a debate against Mike Callaghan (D) tonight and this hasn't been such a great week for her.
There been lots of
stories about the generic candidate impact of the Foley scandal on likely voters. We've also heard about how the rising tide of Democrat prospects is lifting many a campaign ship.
Here's the story that a phone call,
a TV ad, and polling number silence tell:
her "safe" Republican seat is now in play!
Follow below for the full story and be sure to take the "safe seat" poll, too!
On Monday night I decided, being election season and all, that I'd talk with an obvious telemarketer long enough to see if it was a poll. Much to my delight it was.
Even better, the poll was obviously focused on the Congressional race and, bordering on a push poll, was obviously GOP sponsored. This alone is significant as in WV-02 there has only been one acknowledged poll (NRCC in mid-July) and no public numbers. After all, why bother polling a safe seat?
But, here's Capito's problem. She's vulnerable. She's
tied to every Republican scandal this year. She's the major Republican office holder in WV. There's no other close races this year. She has no up-ticket Republican protection. Quite the opposite.
Here's her dilemma. If she admits the race is close, she risks Democrats pouring money into the race. If she tries to maintain an air of incumbent invicibility she risks getting swept away on Election Day. What to do?
She tipped her hand today. Of course, she was hoping we won't notice. But we did.
What did she do when the poll results hit her desk Tuesday morning?
(1) She didn't release the numbers. They can't be good. The last question of the poll--after testing out a litany of push-poll-like red-meat attack ad lines--was to ask to what extent the
Foley situation was causing you to be more likely to vote Republican, vote Democrat, or
stay home. That's her biggest nightmare, her soft support voters staying home.
(2) She's gone on the attack. What's the number one rule of a safe seat incumbent? Never mention your opponents name. She's thrown that out the window. The seat must not be so safe anymore, eh? She's decided to give her opponent, Mike Callaghan, name recognition. For the first time all campaign she's giving him free publicity.
This is a seat we can win. The Republicans are admitting it. Are you ready to take advantage of this opportunity?
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