Larry Sabato, a political science professor at the University of Virginia and Director of the U.Va. Center for Politics, now sees a
distinct possibilty of a Democratic majority in the US House of Representatives, State Houses, and (perhaps) even in the US Senate
Just a few weeks ago, President Bush and the GOP appeared to be staging a remarkable comeback that would have enabled the Republicans to retain their congressional majorities. The Foley scandal and the deteriorating situation in Iraq have changed all that, and it is clear that as of mid-October, there is a Democratic gale a blowin'. We all hope that Samuel L. Jackson isn't eaten by a shark again, but it's looking like the GOP's worst fear might be about to surface.
Details on the flip side.
According to Sabato, momemtum is on the Democrats' side, the number of competitive House seats keeps expanding, and as many as
50 seats might now be up for grabs
Democrats are moving up--some rapidly--in a wide range of competitive contests for the House, the Foley storm's chamber of direct impact. For the first time this year, your cautious Crystal Ball now projects a Democratic majority of somewhere between 221 and 225 seats
In the Senate, the political winds favor the Democrats and a majority is well within reach
In the Senate we believe that control of the body is up for grabs, with Democrats nearly sure to win 15 out of the 33 total seats up this year. Four more seats are on the edge but leaning slightly towards the Democrats. The five total toss-ups will determine which party organizes the upper chamber, and the Democrats will likely need to capture all five of them to take control, a reasonable possibility given the dynamics of each race in that category.
Ever better news for the Democrats in terms of regaining a majority of state houses
For Democrats, the best part of election night might be in the statehouses. The Crystal Ball believes that when the votes are counted, Democrats will have between 26 and 28 Governors, up from the current 22--and they are likely gaining seats in the vital states of Ohio and New York.
Summing up his political forecast, here's how Sabato sees the outcome on election night
* US House of Representatives - +18 to +22 D.
* State Houses - +4 to +6 D.
* US Senate - +3 to +6 D.
For those of you not familiar with Larry Sabato, he's a somewhat conservative, Republican-leaning political analyst -- not unlike Charlie Cook of National Journal. If he sees a Democratic wave building -- a Rovian 'October Surprise' notwithstanding -- we can be cautiously optimistic about this upcoming election.
If you haven't already done so, volunteer for a campaign; contribute as much as you can; persuade your friends to vote Democratic; and work harder to obtain what is now within reach. Don't sit this election out. Do something!
And remember to take the poll.