A
new poll of likely voters in Arizona's 1st Congressional District shows that Ellen Simon (D) has taken the lead over incumbent Rick Renzi (R), with 26 days to go until Election Day, 50-46%.
To be honest, I was a bit skeptical, since Ellen Simon was down by 13 in the last poll taken about a month ago.
But since then...
...lots has happened that may be hurting Renzi and helping Simon:
- Renzi made the "most corrupt" in Congress list again, 2nd cycle in a row...
- It came out that Renzi was using a Congressional staffer as a campaign staffer at the same time, a big ethical no-no.
- Renzi was found to be using endorsements that he did not receive... and then called the guy a felon when he dared to ask for a correction.
- President Bush held a $500/head fundraiser for Renzi... outside the district, even as Bush's approval rating tanks.
- Renzi has been acting childish and has refused to debate.
- Renzi's been looking squirmish, resorting to name-calling.
- The Arizona Dems have had Ellen's back, exposing all kinds of nasty skeletonsin Rick's closet, including ties to Abramoff and pay-to-play deals.
- Ellen has been heavy on Native American outreach.
- Simon picked up the endorsements of the Sierra Club and EMILY'S List.
- General election voters are just starting to pay attention to the general election races, with Ellen's name recognition increasing as she goes up on the radio and hits up events across the district.
And of course...
- Foleygate!
And since this poll was taken just 2 days ago, the mainstream media is
questioning Renzi's ethics, just as bloggers and party insiders (not to mention the FEC!) have done since he was first elected.
Given all that, I think the poll is credible, even if it isn't quite on mark. Ellen Simon is definitely gaining ground in Arizona.
Help her hold on just 26 more days, and send Rick Renzi packing back to Virginia. This is a seat that if Ellen wins, Democrats can actually hold for more than 2 years. This never should have been a Republican seat to begin with.