Charlie Cook's
prediction of a November rout is prefaced with this ominous qualifier.
John Dean speaks of it in his essay regarding the predictably unprecedented smearing and lying and cheating the Republicans will engage in this fall and his own fears of an October surprise.
It is not a distant memory of Cheney calling Iraq the next front on the war on terrorism in August of 2002 just before the midterm elections, successfully making the referendum not on the policy success'/failures of the The Bush Congress but on party testicle size.
The repetitive baiting by congressional Republicans using 9/11 as a political tool to question Democrats patriotism is as grating and insulting today as it was five years ago.
Now we have Newt Gingrich calling on Republicans to call out the start of "World War III" to salvage this season's midterms for the party.
So what are the possibilities? What are the PROBABILITIES?
I have posted in the past about the
true implications of this year's mid-terms: Accountability for the Bush administration. Their only hope of survival is to maintain their control of Congress. One party rule is their one fortress, their last stronghold. You think they'll give it up without the fight of their lives?
WHEN?
Whatever their fall strategy will be, it will begin this month in earnest. Just as Cheney got the ball rolling in '02 in August, it's a safe bet their overall strategy will emerge soon.
HOW?
They have no foreign policy success, no domestic policy success, no infallible leader to prop up. They will play to emotions. They have to. They don't want the voters to think. They want them to "feel". They will want them to forget what they "know" and vote from a deep, dark and scared place that has nothing to do with rational thought.
WHAT?
As we know, their only strengths now are fear, obfuscation, smear and war. Therefore it is a safe bet that an escalation in Iran or Syria is just around the corner coupled with a challenge to Democrats to back away from the fight, to blink, to flinch and to do it in full view of red America. Good-bye "6 for '06"; hello "I don't feel safe with Democrats in charge.."
What does this mean for us? It means that we have to play to emotions as well. Kerry's repetition about health care, jobs, diminishing middle class, etc. was drowned out by simple fear; the psychological "fight or flight" instinct. And when that Bin Laden tape came out just before the election, even Kerry himself knew this was the end of the road for his candidacy four days before the election. You think perhaps Karl Rove might be on to this?
**THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NEED TO START BELIEVING THAT THEY ARE NOT SAFE UNDER THIS ADMINSTRATION. PORT SECURITY. BORDER SECURITY. CHEMICAL PLANTS. NUCLEAR FACILITIES. THE EXPANDING ARMY OF BIN LADEN UNDERBUSH'S POLICIES. FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR FEAR.**
Unfortunately, I am sure many on this site will be upset at this unpricipled and low blow political ploy. And therefore my prediction is that there will be no rout as predicted by Cook.
If by some miracle we gain one house of Congress I will be surprised. The anemic Democratic establishment has not been able to make political hay out of any Republican action no matter how outrageously unprincipled or criminal. This is why the Republican corruption got so bad so quickly. They just kept getting away with ever-more flagrant abuses with no consequence that they eventually burned themselves and the nation while they were at it. It had little to do with any effort on the Democrats part. And yet even now, the most corrupt Congress in 100 years, there is still a chance, a very good chance that they will retain hold of our country. This speaks volumes about the Democrats.
They simply use the same tired and outdated playbook just as predictably as Rove uses his corrupt and yet winning playbook. And like a poor boxer, they keep falling for the same punch again and again. Frustrating.
I live in NYC and I am truly afraid for my family. The stakes are so high for this country's most corrupt adminstration, that I believe that they will do whatever is necessary to win. By any means necessary. John Dean calls them in his book "Conservatives Without Conscience". This is not just a catchy title; this is truly the case. We must remember "By Any Mean Necessary", means exactly what it says.
Republicans don't mind breaking the law, trampling the Constitution, rigging elections, toturing prisoners, suspending habeus corpus, tapping our phones, going to war under false pretenses or even sitting with fingers crossed at the chance to have an October Surprise be another terrorist event to exploit because they so believe that theirs is the only way, they so believe that they are right, that they MUST break our laws and destroy our principles in order to win elections because they feel that they are the only ones to be trusted with the direction of this nation. Because, in their warped minds, once they have total control of our nation, they promise themselves that they will return all of those principles and the Constitution to their rightful American place: As high ideals to aspire to. They sleep peacefully at night because in their minds democracy isn't being destroyed, it is simply being set aside for a time---FOR THE GOOD OF THE NATION.
They THINK they are patriots, They truly believe they are the TRUE American patriots. The difference between them and us being that they have the guts to break a few eggs to make an omlette whereas us lefty weaklings insist on going by the book.
With the specter of Iran, Syria and Lebanon looming on our national horizon, while this adminstration does everything it can to fan the flames, the next three months will truly be the call to save our democracy, if we have not lost it already. If our Democratic leaders falter this election cycle by not responding to attacks (as Kerry did), or by playing the statesman and being above the fray (as Gore did), or by our pundits not doing their homework before doing TV interviews and calling out Fox News, Chris Matthews et al on their bias, lies and spin WHILE ON THESE SHOWS and forcefully presenting our case, then I fear the worst for this nation more than at any other time.
We need fresh ideas, but more importantly, we need our leaders to heed them.
For starters,IMO, we need a broad media attack. Perhaps a series of commercials titled "Know your Conservative Voices", each commercial focusing on one pundit, (Limbuagh, Malkin, Hannity, Savage) or Republican Congresssman(Ney, Burns, Santorum, Delay, Cornyn)and throw every racist, intolerant, belligerent un-American quote back at them. 15 second spots with no other voice but their own to shock and nauseate every independent voter tired of the path we have been led on.
We need to get George Soros or somebody to spring for an unprecendeted amount of busing to polling stations on election night.
This is it. '06 is far more important than '08. This is the same battle with the same players with the same strategy that we have fought and lost three times before. At this point, if we fail we have no one to blame but ourselves.