Jim Esch is the Democrat running in NE-02. He is going to win. I'm not kidding.
Read below the fold, I'll tell you why.
You'll like it, I promise.
Here is NE-02, by the numbers.
Registered Democrats: 133,799
Registered Republicans: 160,716
Registered Independents: 69,137
This is absolutely NOT an insurmountable voter registration disparity. Nebraskans are not big party-line voters. Ben Nelson, a Democrat, picks up a siginificant portion of the republican vote every election.
This is a state in which Republicans are willing to vote for a Democrat.
I do a lot of canvassing for Jim Esch, and I love to target likely republican voters. I DO NOT try to turnout (R)'s that were not otherwise going to vote, but if an R has a yardsign, or is designated a "likely voter," then he might as well vote for Jim when he goes to the polls.
Here is how it typically goes:
(Me) Hi! My name is Dan, and I am a volunteer on Jim Esch's Campaign for Congress.
(R) Isn't he a Democrat? (I always love that most (R)'s know exactly who Jim Esch is)
(Me) Why, yes sir, he is. But Let me tell you why you should vote for him:
At this point, I talk about Jim's refusal to take special Interest money, and how Lee Terry has taken 2.6 million in the last 8 years. Then I tell them that he has taken over 100 grand from oil and gas companies, and sits on the energy committee.
(Me) Don't you think that is quite the conflict of interest?
(R) ::Nods Head Contemplatively::
(Me) Now, the 2005 Energy Bill, which Lee Terry helped to write and then voted for, had an EIGHT BILLION DOLLAR package of tax breaks and subsidies for oil compainies. Lee Terry has taken over 100 thousand dollars from these people, and then he writes a bill that gives them a huge windfall. Then he has the nerve to say that he is committed to alternative energy.
(R) Thats a good point...
(Me) Look, We're counting on Nebraskans to be Nebraskans and vote for the best guy, and not the party line.
I know that sounds corny, but the next thing to happen is this:
(R) ::Nods head again::
(Me)...and we're hoping that you'll look at Jim and his record, and compare him to Lee, and vote for the best guy.
(R) Well, I'll definitely do that, and I will be sure to keep Jim in mind. It was nice talking to you, thanks for coming.
(Me) It was my pleasure, sir. Thanks for taking the time to talk to me, I really appreciate it.
There is no doubt in my mind that this thing is winnable. None whatsoever. We have looked at all sorts of old elections, ran statistics, looked at previous results and very specific breakdowns, and here is what we think:
If we can get 15% of the (R)'s to vote for us, we'll win. And that is absolutely doable. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we picked up 25% or even 30% of the (R) vote. Terry is extremely unpopular, he is a total rubber stamp, he hasn't done ANYTHING for the people of this district. He is the personification of everything that is wrong with our government.
Bush fans are voting for Terry. Rumsfeld fans are voting for Terry.
Democrats, Independents, traditional republicans, and republicans fed up with this administration are all voting for Jim.
Jim Esch is going to win.