Needed: 270
2000 Result; Bush-278 Gore-260
(p)-possibly competitive
SOLID DEM:
Mass.
New York
New Jersey
Maryland
Connecticut
Delaware
Rhode Island
Washington, DC
Illinois (p)
California (p)
Hawaii
Vermont
164
Leaning DEM, but COMPETITIVE (est. chance of losing state in parenthesis)
Michigan (46%)
Wisconsin (48%)
Washington (45%)
Pennsylvania (49%)
Maine (46%)
=63
LEANING DEM or SOLID DEM =227
HIGHLY COMPETITIVE, NO LEAN
Minnesota
Oregon
Iowa
New Mexico
West Virginia
=29
LEANING GOP, but COMPETITIVE (est. chance of winning state in parenthesis)
Arkansas (48%)
Nevada (49%)
New Hampshire (47%)
Arizona (45%)
Florida (47%)
Lousianna (46%)
Ohio (45%)
Missouri (44%)
=95
SOLID GOP
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Montana
Colorado (p)
Texas
Miss.
Kentucky
Georgia
Virginia (p)
North Carolina (p)
South Carolina
Tenn.
Alabama
Indiana
Wyoming
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska
Utah
Alaska
=170
LEANING GOP + SOLID GOP
265
With my analysis, the problem we face in winning a very close election next year (as I predict it will be) is that the GOP is very close to obtaining the necessary electoral votes to reelect Bush. The states Leaning GOP and solidly backing the GOP combine to amass 265 electoral votes. The problems don't end there. Of the 5 HIGHLY competitve states, four went to Gore in 2000. One loss in this category spells defeat for the Democrat. There are no easy answers. We have to either move Florida and other currently leaning GOP states into the highly competitive category, or we have to move our states our of it. Even if we move the four out, we still don't have enough to win. I think this scorecard thoroughly debunks the idea that the Democrats need to ignore the south next year. Of course, like most of you, I can't stand the fact that the south has so much political power, but until things move the other way we have to cope. The frontier, in my opinion, doesn't hold the necessary electoral votes needed to win in the event of a southern shut-out. Arkansas and West Virginia are perhaps our greatest prospects, with Louisianna and Florida a distance behind. New Hampshire might be persuaded to back the Democrat, but our poor showing there in 2002 doesn't convince me.
On the Democratic side, Iowa is trending GOP, but it did buck the trend in '02. Minnesota is surburbanizing and leaving its liberal history behind, but in the end bet on Wellstone's state going Democratic. Oregon and New Mexico can be held.
TURNOUT. The GOP has caught up and possibly passed us in turnout. They've always held the cards on organization and party machinery, but the Democrats could count on a 1-3% boost on election day based on turnout alone. Terry, if he wants to regain respectability, needs to institute an ambitious get-out-the-vote operation. This is about Dean's only plus in a general election. If he gets in a close one with Bush, he could do it. IF he gets in a close one.
Thoughts or ideas for get-out-the-vote operations anyone??