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The Casper Star-Tribune released its Mason-Dixon poll this morning on the at-large congressional race in Wyoming, showing Democratic challenger Gary Trauner closing on Rep. Barbara Cubin since the last such poll in February. (N=625, MoE = 4%)

Cubin leads Trauner 44%-37% with 15% undecided and 4% picking the Libertarian candidate. Cubin had led 54%-32% in a similar poll in February. A Rasmussen poll in May had Cubin up 47%-44%.

The NRCC has had radio attack ads on the air against Trauner for the last several weeks. However, Cubin was laughed at openly when claiming to be running a positive campaign during the debate which took place Sunday (sorry, no link posted by the CST), and the newspaper letters page has been heavy with disgusted responses from letter writers, so there appears to be some backlash developing.

More on the extended copy section ...

The campaign is clearly going to come down to undecided voters. Cubin has a net negative favorable/unfavorable among the entire poll sample (43 positive/45 negative), bad enough as it is, but among the undecided voters her positive/negative is an astonishing 13/39. So there is lots of room for Trauner to capture undecided voters.

This will be a close race that comes down to turnout and late-deciding voters. Trauner is at or above 15,000 doors knocked personally - funny, nobody ever asks Cubin how many doors she has visited - and is sticking to his campaign plan. This is about the last state left where the GOP brand identity is still intact, so expect Cubin to keep hitting back on guns and taxes through Election Day. Where it stops, nobody knows.

One last tidbit: a searing article on Cubin's thoughts on global warming, courtesy of NewWest.net ... enjoy.

Originally posted to Longshanks on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:59 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This confirms that Trauner has a real shot (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jhwygirl, Christopher Walker

    and what a coup that would be...

    One more scandal could really help us here.

    "I have powers! Political powers!" -Homer Simpson

    by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:03:59 AM PDT

    •  This is great come-from-behind (0+ / 0-)

      snowball-movement-in-the-last-few-weeks momementum.

      Kos has frontpaged Gary at least twice now, right?

      It will be great to see that vile woman gone.

      In loving memory of Sadie, my camping, hiking & swimming friend. August 9, 1995 - January 23, 2006. She was the very best.

      by jhwygirl on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:44:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  hey! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jhwygirl

        Still haven't gotten your address to send you a Trauner button.

        Anyone who wants a Trauner button, just let me know and I'll put it in the mail for you ... after I get back from my 10 day vacation in the Southwest.

        Send requests to lesleywisch at wyoming dot com.

        Gary Trauner, WY's progressive candidate. Kick out Barbara Cubin!

        by kainah on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:55:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've emailed you.. (0+ / 0-)

          I'll do it again - I musta screwed something up.  I don't like using hotmail to send stuff, I have problems...

          Enjoy the SW.

          In loving memory of Sadie, my camping, hiking & swimming friend. August 9, 1995 - January 23, 2006. She was the very best.

          by jhwygirl on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:36:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i even checked junk and didn't see it.... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jhwygirl

            But I'm saving one for you!

            And, btw, since it doesn't seem that I will get to a diary about the sign check around the state -- it looked pretty good for Gary everywhere I went. I was very surprised by kemmerer where he had 5 and Cubin had 0 that I saw. But disappointed in Rawlins where Cubin mysteriously seemed to be beating him. (And Groutage, running against Thomas, had 3, the only Groutage I've seen anywhere but in my front yard.) Nothing in Medicine Bow or Rock River so I've volunteered to take signs up there when I get back and the folks at headquarters are looking for volunteers to receive them.

            I should add that, at least in Albany County, we have a hell of a time keeping his signs in stock. Last week, when I was at headquarters, there were two left and both had been spoken for.

            Rep. Gary Trauner (D-WY) -- Doesn't that look nice? Help make it happen!

            by kainah on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 06:50:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It seems like Gary is landsliding (0+ / 0-)

              from what I'm hearing.

              Doesn't it sound good...Won't it look nice?

              ;-)

              In loving memory of Sadie, my camping, hiking & swimming friend. August 9, 1995 - January 23, 2006. She was the very best.

              by jhwygirl on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:01:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  My family in Jackson (0+ / 0-)

    says they are seeing a ton of TV ads from Cubin but not much from Trauner. Is this true for the rest of the state? Is Trauner way behind in media promotion? I just don't think knocking on everyones' door is enough to pull this off.

  •  75 percent of the undecideds are Repubs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jhwygirl, Christopher Walker

    but Cubin is viewed favorably by only 13%, unfavorably by 39%, and neutrally by 48%.  Many of these R's are also crossing over to vote for Freudenthal, so they might feel hesitant to vote for two Democrats and only 1 Repub in the big races.

    Still an uphill climb, but nice to see polling out of this race showing Trauner competitive.

    •  Freudenthal (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jhwygirl, Christopher Walker

      What differentiates this race from 2004 - which was closer than Cubin expected - is that Trauner has Freudenthal on the ticket with him while Ladd had Kerry.  Freudenthal is polling in the mid to high 60s - nearly half of Republicans plan to vote for him.  How many will also vote for Trauner remains to be seen.  These Republicans have seen that Freudenthal has been a highly effective governor.  Plus, they are disenchanted with the Republican scene in Washington.

      Maybe - just maybe??

      •  Freudenthal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        johnnygunn

        There is the thinking that Freudenthal could hurt Trauner simply because Repubs who vote for Freudenthal won't want to also cast a vote for another Dem. I'm sure that will be true for some people. On the other hand, I'm sure there will be some who think, "Well, hell, I've voted for one Dem and it didn't hurt too much, I can vote for another."

        I still maintain that the ultimate irony here is that, had Cubin simply retired, the Repubs would have held this seat with no trouble at all. Once again, it's her arrogance that endangers their grip on this seat.

        Gary Trauner, WY's progressive candidate. Kick out Barbara Cubin!

        by kainah on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:57:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hallelujah! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    killjoy, jhwygirl, Christopher Walker

    I would love nothing more than to be rid of the crass and incompetent Cubin.  Cubin is running scared.  Her people sense she is vulnerable.  And if you hit the cafes and bars around Buffalo, you will hear that she is unpopular.  That's in a county that went 80% for Bush in 2004.

  •  Regarding Freudenthal (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jhwygirl

    BTW, have noticed comments from the readers and Kos about whether Freudenthal could/would get heavily involved in this race, and fretting that he hasn't. That would be pretty unusual in Wyoming, as our Democratic governors over the years have stayed very hands-off on the federal races. Except when they themselves ran, and got whipped.

    Mason Dixon's pollster told the Casper Star-Tribune that the probable landslide for Freudenthal may be a negative for Trauner, given the propensity of Wyoming voters to vote solid Republican tickets even in this nationally dismal year for the GOP. "With most Republicans already crossing over to vote for a Democrat in the governor's race and party control of the US House at stake, those GOP voters may ultimately hold their noses and vote for Cubin," pollster Brad Coker told the CST.

    Just one factor in this race - reminding voters that Freudenthal and Trauner are in the same party might not be a winning strategy. Amongst the undecided voters, fully three-quarters are Republican, so this matters, and may explain why the gov hasn't plunged into this race.

  •  Debate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jhwygirl

    There was a good article the other day about a Cubin-Trauner debate where the crowd laughed at Cubin because she claimed she didn't do negative campaigning multiple times.

    The Republican Party: The Bridge to Nowhere

    by flounder on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:24:52 AM PDT

    •  link to Casper Star-Tribune article on the debate (0+ / 0-)

      The Casper Star-Tribune has to be one of the most frustrating newspapers on the web. Nonetheless, the stars were shining on me last night as I was sitting in Moab, Utah, desperate for news about the debate. I found the article in the CST and, with any luck, it might remain at that link for a little while.

      However, because they often don't, here are some fun clips from it:

      Candidates for Congress snapped and sniped in a public forum on Sunday, to the amusement of an audience at Casper College. ...

      Rankin, who lives in Casper, agreed (ed: that it doesn't matter where Trauner was born), saying that he was born in Pennsylvania, raised in Oklahoma and has lived in Wyoming for a long time. Cubin likewise was born outside Wyoming, he added. (ed: A point rarely noted by Cubin supporters or Cubin herself)

      ...

      On the next question, asked why Wyoming should send a Republican to Washington, Cubin responded that she has only repeated Trauner's statements in her television ads.

      That drew a low ripple of giggles from the audience.
      ...

      "My opponent once again has said he wants to do away with labels. Well, the reason he wants to do away with labels is up until today, he has said, 'You can describe it however you want,' but what he has described is nationalized health care-socialized medicine; and socialized medicine would cost this country more than our defense budget and many others combined," she said.

      That generated another round of giggles. So, before the next round of questions, co-moderator Shauna Bales of KCWY News 13 chided the candidates not respond to previous questions.

      More giggles.

      The next question concerned the character trait most important to work in Washington. Rankin cited a need to compromise. Cubin agreed.

      "Everyone agrees that this country is entirely too partisan," she said.

      Louder giggles.

      more at the link, if it still works.

      Gary Trauner, WY's progressive candidate. Kick out Barbara Cubin!

      by kainah on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:47:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  another poll out there (0+ / 0-)

    I have mentioned this in other diaries but want to add it to the record here.

    Rasmussen did another poll on this race in late August. I know this because I was polled for it. I waited for results for weeks and they never came. I was forced to conclude, finally, that this must have been an internal poll for someone. Because I couldn't imagine either Freudenthal or Thomas -- who were also included -- paying for it, I concluded it had to be either the Cubin campaign or the RNCC. And the fact that the results were never released told me that they must not have been anything to brag about.

    There was, of course, a remote possibility that this could have been an internal Trauner poll but I asked his wife about it last week and she said she didn't think they had done it.  

    Gary Trauner, WY's progressive candidate. Kick out Barbara Cubin!

    by kainah on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 01:53:50 PM PDT

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