Cubin leads Trauner 44%-37% with 15% undecided and 4% picking the Libertarian candidate. Cubin had led 54%-32% in a similar poll in February. A Rasmussen poll in May had Cubin up 47%-44%.
The NRCC has had radio attack ads on the air against Trauner for the last several weeks. However, Cubin was laughed at openly when claiming to be running a positive campaign during the debate which took place Sunday (sorry, no link posted by the CST), and the newspaper letters page has been heavy with disgusted responses from letter writers, so there appears to be some backlash developing.
More on the extended copy section ...
This will be a close race that comes down to turnout and late-deciding voters. Trauner is at or above 15,000 doors knocked personally - funny, nobody ever asks Cubin how many doors she has visited - and is sticking to his campaign plan. This is about the last state left where the GOP brand identity is still intact, so expect Cubin to keep hitting back on guns and taxes through Election Day. Where it stops, nobody knows.
One last tidbit: a searing article on Cubin's thoughts on global warming, courtesy of NewWest.net ... enjoy.